MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD Still Bullish Despite Friday Pullback

Price Signal Summary – USD Still Bullish Despite Friday Pullback

• In FX, EURUSD traded under pressure for much of last week, before bouncing into the Friday close on broad-based USD weakness. This keeps key support in place at the 1.1704 2021 low printed back in March. USDJPY added to recent gains mid-week, topping out at a new monthly high of 110.80 before fading. This keeps the outlook positive, with 110.82 the next upside level ahead of the 111.66 bull trigger.
• WTI futures levelled off at the tail-end of last week, holding above the Monday high and erasing the weakness seen at the beginning of the week. Nonetheless, prices hold south of the 50-day EMA at 69.98, which switches from support to resistance. Silver remained below Monday's highs into the Friday close, and has underperformed gold throughout the recovery off the Monday low. This underperformance has accelerated the formation of a death cross in DMA space, adding to bearish pressure on silver.
• S&P E-minis outlook is bullish as intraday dips continue to be bought, sending the index to a new record high. Recent gains have confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for further strength. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are extending gains, topping out at new cycle highs of 4238.50 Friday. This extends the winning streak to nine consecutive sessions of higher highs. This follows the break above previous resistance at 4101.50, Jul 1 high.
• Bund futures traded inside the recent range Friday, providing few fresh technical signals. The recent winning streak concluded over a week ago, putting an end to the winning streak of 8 consecutive sessions of higher highs. Nonetheless, the outlook holds bullish.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bouncing Ahead of Key Support

• RES 4: 1.2006 High Jun 29 / Jun 17
• RES 3: 1.1948/75 38.2% of the May 25 - Jul 21 sell-off / High Jun 25
• RES 2: 1.1930 High Jun 29
• RES 1: 1.1871 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1796 @ 16:46 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 1.1706 Low Aug 10
• SUP 2: 1.1704 Low Mar 31 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.1695 38.2% Fib 2020 - 2021 Rally
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 04, 2020

EURUSD traded under pressure for much of the week, before bouncing into the close on broad-based USD weakness. This keeps key support in place at the 1.1704 2021 low printed back in March. Stiff support is expected here ahead of the 1.1685 mark, at which the 38.2% Fib crosses for the 2020 - 2021 rally. A further decline would be bearish indeed. For bulls to regain control, markets need to test the 50-day EMA at 1.1871. This average represents a key short-term resistance.

GBPUSD TECHS: Shallow Bounce

• RES 4: 1.4133 High Jun 16
• RES 3: 1.4088 76.4% retracement of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.4001 High Jun 23
• RES 1: 1.3990 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
• PRICE: 1.3857 @ 16:59 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 1.3767 Low Jul 27
• SUP 2: 1.3691 Low Jul 22
• SUP 3: 1.3572 Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3520/10 Low Jan 18 / 2.0%10-dma envelope

GBPUSD reversed the Thursday weakness into the Friday close, flicking the technical picture back to unchanged. The pair remains below the 50-day EMA at 1.3882, the key upside level. A close back above here signals scope for gains towards 1.3990 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Support undercuts at the Jul 27 low of 1.3767. Should this give way, the outlook deteriorates, opening scope toward the bear trigger of 1.3572.

EURGBP TECHS: Hovering Above Week's Lows

• RES 4: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.8672 High May 25
• RES 2: 0.8610/70 High Jul 22 / High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8580 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8511 @ 17:08 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 0.8450 Low Aug 10
• SUP 2: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.8418 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8277 Low Dec 13

EURGBP outlook remains weak despite the recovery later in the week. The print down at 0.8450 marks the lowest level since February last year. This flags scope for losses toward vol band support at 0.8418 as well as the Feb 27, 2020 low at 0.8430. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode highlighting a downside theme. On the upside, key resistance is unchanged at 0.8670, the Jul 20 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Peels Away From Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 111.71 High Mar 24, 2020
• RES 3: 111.66 High Jul 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 110.82 High Jul 7
• RES 1: 110.80 High Aug 11
• PRICE: 109.71 @ 17:11 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 108.72 Low Aug 04
• SUP 2: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 3: 108.47/34 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally / Low May 7
• SUP 4: 108.08 Low Apr 27

USDJPY added to recent gains mid-week, topping out at a new monthly high of 110.80 before fading. This keeps the outlook positive, with 110.82 the next upside level ahead of the 111.66 bull trigger. To the downside, attention is on 108.47, a Fibonacci retracement, which markets have narrowed in on with the Friday weakness.

EURJPY TECHS: Support Intact

• RES 4: 132.43 High Jul 1
• RES 3: 131.86 Jul 6 high
• RES 2: 131.01/09 50-day EMA / High Jul 13
• RES 1: 130.56 High Jul 29
• PRICE: 129.42 @ 17:13 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 129.14 Low Aug 04
• SUP 2: 128.72/60 200-dma / Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 128.29 Low Mar 24 and key support
• SUP 4: 127.88 38.2% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jun rally

EURJPY remains toward the bottom-end of the recent range, exposing next key support at the 128.72 200-dma. This keeps the outlook bearish and recent gains are still considered corrective. A clear break of the average would reinforce the current bearish theme and signal scope for an extension of the downtrend. Note, moving average studies remain bearish. Potential is for a move to 127.88, 38.2% of the Oct '20 - Jun rally. 131.01 marks resistance, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Near-Term Outlook More Neutral

• RES 4: 0.7523 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 0.7503 High Jul 13
• RES 2: 0.7487 High Jul 15
• RES 1: 0.7429 High Jul 19
• PRICE: 0.7377 @ 17:16 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 0.7290 Low Jul 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.7284 Low Nov 24, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.7235 1.382 proj of Feb 25 - Apr 1 - May 10 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.7222 Low Nov 13, 2020

AUDUSD finished the week toward the upper-end of the range, but the near-term outlook remains broadly neutral. Bulls need further progress from here, to cement any near-term recovery, with 0.7416 the first notable level of resistance ahead of 0.7429, the Jul 19 high. For the bearish outlook to firm, markets need to slip through this week's low of 0.7316 ahead of the 0.7290 bear trigger.

USDCAD TECHS: Key Support in Sight

• RES 4: 1.2881 High Jan 28
• RES 3: 1.2807/46 High Jul 19 / 1.236 proj of Jun 1 - 21- 23 swing
• RES 2: 1.2730 High Jul 20
• RES 1: 1.2607 High Jul 23
• PRICE: 1.2510 @ 17:18 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 1.2453 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2407 50.0% retracement of the Jun 1 - Jul 19 rally
• SUP 3: 1.2313 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - Jul 19 rally
• SUP 4: 1.2253 Low Jun 23

USDCAD edged off the week's highs mid-week, slipping briefly below 1.25. This opens key support at the 1.2453 50-day EMA, a break below which would be resolutely bearish and open the early August lows. Markets need to top 1.2605 to initiate any further rally, with the Jul 23 high of 1.2607 just above.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Ranges Tightening

• RES 4: 178.37 High Jan 4 (cont)
• RES 3: 178.12 High Jan 27
• RES 2: 177.69 1.764 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 1: 177.61 High Aug 05
• PRICE: 176.68 @ 16:05 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 175.82/24 Low Jul 27 / Low Jul 22
• SUP 2: 174.77/45 High Jul 8 / Low Jul 15
• SUP 3: 173.79 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 173.70 Low Jul 13 and 14

Bund futures traded inside the recent range Friday, providing few fresh technical signals. The recent winning streak concluded over a week ago, putting an end to the winning streak of 8 consecutive sessions of higher highs. Nonetheless, the outlook holds bullish. Any return higher targets 177.69, a Fibonacci extension. Moving average conditions remain in bull mode, reinforcing the current positive trend structure. Any pullback would initially target the late July lows of 175.62/24.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Rally Pauses

• RES 4: 136.583 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 4: 136.041 61.8% March Downtick
• RES 3: 135.700 High Dec 11 (cont)
• RES 2: 135.640 High Aug 05
• PRICE: 135.240 @ 16:06 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 135.030/134.900 Low Jul 26 / Low Jul 22
• SUP 2: 134.834/710 20-day EMA / High Jul 8
• SUP 3: 134.562 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 134.410 Low Jul 13 and a key support

Bobl futures edged off recent highs over the past week or so, but the pullback hasn't altered the bullish trend. This keeps gains toward the Dec 11 2020 highs of 135.700 on the table as well as a key Fib level at 136.041. Current support remains untroubled at 134.900, Jul 22 low. A break through here opens losses toward 135.030.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Coming Under Pressure

• RES 4: 112.505 High November 2020
• RES 3: 112.450 High Dec 11, 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: 112.415 High Aug 05
• RES 1: 112.412 2.50 proj of the Jun 22 - Jul 8 - Jul 13 price swing
• PRICE: 112.305 @ 16:08 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 112.285 Low Jul 26
• SUP 2: 112.245 Low Jul 21
• SUP 3: 112.210 Low Jul 20
• SUP 4: 112.180/150 Low Jul 16 / Low Jul 13

Schatz futures continue to peel off recent highs, but remain bullish despite the pullback. The clear break on Jul 20 of resistance at 112.210, Jun 11 high established an uptrend. Further gains are favoured after the print of 112.390, with the focus on 112.412 next, a Fibonacci projection. Recent gains have also established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend. Initial firm support is seen at 112.285, Jul 26 low.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Fades Off Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 131.72 38.2% retracement of the Mar'20 - Jun'21 sell-off
• RES 3: 131.37 38.2% retracement of the Aug '20 - Jun sell-off
• RES 2: 130.72 High Aug 3 / 2.236 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing / bull trigger
• RES 1: 130.70 200-dma (cont)
• PRICE: 129.64 @ 16:12 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 129.10 Low Jul 22
• SUP 2: 128.54/39 Low Jul 14 / High Jun 11 and recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 128.03 Jul 6
• SUP 4: 127.25 Low Jun 10

Gilt futures uptrend stalled ahead of the 200-dma in recent weeks, but managed a high watermark of 130.72 before prices faded. There remains a bullish outlook which has dominated since the break of 129.92, Jul 8 high. The move above this level confirmed a resumption of the uptrend from mid-May and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus shifts to the 130.70 200-dma. Watch support at 128.54, low Jul 14.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Recovers Off Mid-Week Low

• RES 4: 156.73 1.236 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 3: 156.48 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 155.76 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 155.71 High Aug 04
• PRICE: 155.15 @ 16:13 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 152.65 Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 152.59 Bull channel base drawn off the May 19 low
• SUP 3: 151.93/54 Low Jul 8 / Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: 151.19 High Jul 1

The pause in the recent uptrend persists, with BTPs trading broadly horizontally. BTPs had printed a new cycle high at 155.71 in recent weeks, but price action has been less constructive since then. Nonetheless, a positive outlook remains, but the upside needs to resume in order to reinforce the positive theme. This keeps attention on the prior highs of 155.71 and the vol band resistance at 156.55.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Extends Streak of Higher Highs

• RES 4: 4636.70 76.4% 2000 - 2009 Range
• RES 3: 4270.92 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 4253.71 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 4228.00 High Aug 12
• PRICE: 4222.00 @ 16:16 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 4029.50 Low Jul 22
• SUP 2: 3944.00/3895.00 Low Jul 21 / Low Jul 19
• SUP 3: 3871.00 Low Jul 21 / Low May 19
• SUP 4: 3830.00 Low May 13 and a key support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are extending gains, topping out at new cycle highs of 4238.50 Friday. This extends the winning streak to nine consecutive sessions of higher highs. This follows the break above previous resistance at 4101.50, Jul 1 high. The breach of this level places on hold the previously bearish outlook and instead signals scope for a stronger move higher. Attention shifts to the 4253.71 2.0% 10-dma envelope. Key support has been defined at 3895.00.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Bullish Bias Continues

• RES 4: 4542.58 1.236 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4500.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4481 75.1.00 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4462.00 High Aug 13
• PRICE: 4459.00 @ 16:24 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 4348.92 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4276.18/4224.00 50-day EMA / Low Jul 19 and key support
• SUP 3: 4126.75 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 4046.00 Low May 19

S&P E-minis outlook is bullish as intraday dips continue to be bought, sending the index to a new record high. Recent gains have confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for further strength.The contract found support at the 50-day EMA earlier in the month, leaving this EMA as an important support and the bounce from it is bullish. The focus is on 4481.75 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is 4224.00, Jul 19 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V1) Rebound Levels Off

• RES 4: $78.03 - High Oct 29, 2018 (cont)
• RES 3: $76.80 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $75.92 - High Jul 14
• RES 1: $75.15 - High Jul 29
• PRICE: $70.90 @ 16:28 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: $70.73 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: $67.60 - Low Aug 05
• SUP 3: $66.91 - Jul 20 low and Bear trigger
• SUP 4: $65.75 - Low May 24

Brent futures held the recent range Friday, but provided few fresh technical signals. This flattens off the recovery from the Monday low, but the move below the 50-day EMA in recent weeks looks convincing, with support now exposed at $66.91. To resume any incline, bulls need to again take out $74.47, the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - 20 downleg. A break and close back above here opens key resistance at $76.80, Jul 6 high.

WTI TECHS: (U1) More Comfortable Below 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $76.90 High Oct 3, 2018 (cont)
• RES 3: $76.48 0.764 proj of the May 21 - Jul 6 - Jul 20 price swing
• RES 2: $76.07 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $73.68/74.90 - High Jul 29 / High Jul 13
• PRICE: $68.76 @ 16:47 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: $65.15 - Low Aug 09
• SUP 2: $65.01/64.60 - Low Jul 20 / 76.4% of the May 21 - Jul 6 rally
• SUP 3: $63.10 - Low May 24
• SUP 4: $61.06 - Low May 21 and key support

WTI futures levelled off at the tail-end of the week, holding above the Monday high and erasing the weakness seen at the beginning of the week. Nonetheless, prices hold south of the 50-day EMA at 69.98, which switches from support to resistance. This re-initiates the downside argument, opening $65.01, Jul 20 low and the key support. To resume recent gains, WTI needs to top the 50-dma at 71.49 initially well ahead of Jul30 highs of 74.23.

GOLD TECHS: Extends Recovery From Lows

• RES 4: $1877.5 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 3: $1863.3 - High Jun 16
• RES 2: $1853.3 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 1: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1776.7 @ 16:50 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: $1690.6 Low Aug 08
• SUP 2: $1689.9 - 61.8% 2020 Range
• SUP 3: $1678.0 - Low Mar 31
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 08

Fragile and illiquid conditions in precious metals markets saw prices spiral lower earlier in the week, with markets taking out all nearby support levels to print multi-month lows of $1690.6. The pull lower found some support at the 61.8% retracement of the 2020 range, but the recovery off the low will have emboldened bulls. To reinforce any upside argument, bulls need to regain $1834.1, Jul 15 high, ahead of $1853.3, a Fibonacci retracement.

SILVER TECHS: Death Cross

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16
• RES 3: $26.775/27.245 - High Jul 6 and key resistance / High Jun 17
• RES 2: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 1: $26.002 - High Aug 04
• PRICE: $23.801 @ 16:52 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: $22.626 - Low Aug 09
• SUP 2: $22.434 - 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 3: $21.899 - Low Nov 30, 2020
• SUP 4: $20.751 - 50% 2020 Range

Silver remained below Monday's highs into the Friday close, and has underperformed gold throughout the recovery off the Monday low. This underperformance has accelerated the formation of a death cross in DMA space, adding to bearish pressure on silver. A break and close below Monday's low would be resolutely bearish, opening key Fib support at 20.751. Bulls will have taken heart from the swift bounce off $22.626, however, but need to retake last week's highs at $26.002 to repair the picture.