MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD Yet to Buck Downtrend

MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – USD Bounce Yet to Buck Broader Downtrend  

• The broader trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bullish and Thursday’s move lower appears to be a correction. The continuation higher last week and this week’s cycle high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact, despite the pullback in prices early Friday. The move lower this week does undermine the bullish theme somewhat, with price having traded through the 50-day EMA, exposing the next support at 4860.00. 
• A bull cycle in EURUSD remains in play and Wednesday’s gains reinforce this theme. Key short-term resistance at 1.0916, the Jun 4 high, has been cleared confirming a resumption of the bull cycle. EURGBP is in consolidation mode. A bear cycle remains intact and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness resulted in a print below key support at 0.8397, the Jun 14 low and a bear trigger. AUDUSD bullish conditions remain intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Initial firm support has broken at 0.6712, the 20-day EMA. A close below here could signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 0.6666, the 50-day EMA.
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish, despite the fade off the mid-week highs. The broader gains this week reinforce current conditions, and keep the M/T trend pointed higher. The yellow metal has breached key resistance and the bull trigger at $2450.1, the May 20 high. WTI futures initially traded lower this week marking an extension of the corrective cycle. However, the contract has recovered from Tuesday’s low and this signals the end of a corrective phase.
• Bund futures remain in a short-term bull cycle and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The move higher this week marks an extension of the recent breach of the 50-day EMA. 132.51, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 3 bear leg. Gilt futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Resistance at 98.24, the Jun 28 high, has been cleared. That break, together with this week’s gains, signals scope for a climb towards key short-term resistance. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North              

• RES 4: 1.1055 1.236 projection of the Apr 16 - Jun 4 - 26 price swing   
• RES 3: 1.0981 High Mar 3 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 1.0964 High Mar 13
• RES 1: 1.0948 High Jul 17
• PRICE: 1.0889 @ 08:30 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 1.0872 Low Jul 16  
• SUP 2: 1.0828/1.0736 20-day EMA / Low Jul 3
• SUP 3: 1.0666 Low Jun 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0650 Low May 1

A bull cycle in EURUSD remains in play and Wednesday’s gains reinforce this theme. Key short-term resistance at 1.0916, the Jun 4 high, has been cleared confirming a resumption of the bull cycle. The break paves the way for a climb towards 1.0964, the Mar 13 high, ahead of a key short-term resistance at 1.0981, the Mar 8 high. On the downside, firm short-term support lies at 1.0828, the 20-day EMA.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Condition Holds, Despite Fade Off Highs           

• RES 4: 1.3193 2.236 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing     
• RES 3: 1.3142 High Jul 14 ‘23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3094 Bull channel top drawn from the Oct 4 ‘23 low
• RES 1: 1.3044 High Jul 17
• PRICE: 1.2929 @ 08:31 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 1.2925/02 Low Jul 19 / 12  
• SUP 2: 1.2829/2746 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2613 Low Jun 27
• SUP 4: 1.2584 Low May 15   

GBPUSD remains in a bull-mode condition despite the dip back below 1.30. Wednesday’s gains once again confirm a resumption of the current bull phase and the extension higher highlights a stronger medium-term bullish condition. Price has cleared the 1.3000 handle, signalling scope for an extension towards 1.3094, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 4 low of last year. Firm short-term support is seen at 1.2829, the 20-day EMA.     

EURGBP TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows                            

• RES 4: 0.8586 76.4% retracement of the Apr 23 - Jun 14 bear leg  
• RES 3: 0.8568 High May 20
• RES 2: 0.8476/99 50-day EMA / High Jul 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 0.8441 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 0.8422 @ 08:34 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 0.8383 Low Jul 17 
• SUP 2: 0.8345 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8322 2.618 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing

EURGBP is in consolidation mode. A bear cycle remains intact and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness resulted in a print below key support at 0.8397, the Jun 14 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the medium-term downtrend and pave the way for an extension towards 0.8366, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8441, the 20-day EMA.    

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends 

• RES 4: 162.21 1.764 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing    
• RES 3: 161.95 High Jul 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 159.16/160.26 20-day EMA / Low Jul 8 
• RES 1: 157.86 High Jul 19
• PRICE: 157.45 @ 08:36 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 155.38 Low 
• SUP 2: 154.55 Low Jun 4   
• SUP 3: 153.66 38.2% retracement of the Dec 28 ‘23 - Jul 3 bull run
• SUP 4: 152.78 Low May 6 

USDJPY traded lower Wednesday, but has since regained some lost ground. Nonetheless, recent price action confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started Jul 3. Note too that Wednesday’s sell-off also confirms a clear breach of 158.75, the trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low last year. This break highlights a potential reversal and signals scope for a deeper retracement, towards 154.55 next, the Jun 4 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 159.16, the 20-day EMA.    

EURJPY TECHS: Pierces Key Trendline Support  

• RES 4: 176.03 1.618 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 173.92 61.8% retracement of the Jul 11 - 12 sell-off  
• RES 1: 172.92 High Jul 16 
• PRICE: 171.41 @ 08:43 BST Jul 18
• SUP 1: 170.53/00 Trendline from the Dec 7 ‘23 low / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 169.33 Low Jun 21
• SUP 3: 167.96 Low Jun 17 
• SUP 4: 167.53 Low Jun 14 and a key support 

The sharp sell-off in EURJPY on Jul 11, resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA. The cross remains soft and has traded lower this week. Today's initial move down has resulted in a print below key support at 170.53, a trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. A clear break of this line would highlight a stronger reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 175.43, the Jun 11 high. Initial resistance is at 172.92, the Jul 16 high.       

AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact           

• RES 4: 0.6895 High Jul 13 / 14 2023    
• RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance                
• RES 2: 0.6839 High Jan 02
• RES 1: 0.6799 High Jul 11 
• PRICE: 0.6691 @ 08:44 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 0.6690 Low Jul 19 
• SUP 2: 0.6666 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6558 Low May 8

AUDUSD bullish conditions remain intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Initial firm support has broken at 0.6712, the 20-day EMA. A close below here could signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 0.6666, the 50-day EMA. The bull trigger is at 0.6799, the Jul 11 high. A break would resume the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 0.6839 next, the Jan 2 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up highlighting a rising trend. 

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present Despite Recent Gains                   

• RES 4: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 2: 1.3755/3792 High Jul 2 / High Jun 11
• RES 1: 1.3718 High Jul 19
• PRICE: 1.3716 @ 08:46 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 1.3590/89 Low May 16 and a key support / Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4 

USDCAD has recovered from its recent low. However, a short-term bear threat remains present, for now. Recent weakness resulted in a test of 1.3590, the May 16 low and a key support. A clear breach of it would highlight an important technical break and pave the way for an extension lower near-term. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3755, the Jul 2 high. Clearance of this level would alter the picture and highlight a bullish development. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play                                      

• RES 4: 133.42 1.764 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing            
• RES 3: 133.21 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 132.80 High Jun 25
• RES 1: 132.66 High Jul 17                     
• PRICE: 132.36 @ 07:45 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 131.65 50-day EMA           
• SUP 2: 130.95/23 Low Jul 10 / 3 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 129.52 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger 

Bund futures remain in a short-term bull cycle and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The move higher this week marks an extension of the recent breach of the 50-day EMA. 132.51, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 3 bear leg, has been pierced. Clearance of this level would open 133.21, the Jun 14 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support at 130.23, the Jul 3 low. First support is 131.65, the 50-day EMA.   

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Remains Intact                                          

• RES 4: 117.380 2.00 projection of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing     
• RES 2: 117.160 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger    
• RES 3: 116.920 High Jun 24   
• RES 1: 116.890 High Jul 18               
• PRICE: 116.730 @ 07:48 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 116.339 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 115.980 Low Jul 10 / 11   
• SUP 3: 115.530 Low Jul and the key short-term support
• SUP 4: 115.180 Low Jun 10 

Bobl futures remain in a short-term bull cycle and the contract has traded higher this week. Price has pierced 116.775, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 5 bear leg. A clear break of it would expose 117.160, the Jun 14 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on 115.530, the Jul 5 low and a key support. Initial support to watch lies at 116.339, the 20-day EMA.             

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Short-Term Bullish Theme                              

• RES 4: 106.009 2.382 projection of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing   
• RES 3: 105.975 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger  
• RES 2: 105.837 61.8% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 5 bear leg      
• RES 1: 105.835 High Jul 18  
• PRICE: 105.805 @ 07:52 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 105.632 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 105.495/390 Low Jul 11 / 5 
• SUP 3: 105.314 76.4% retracement of the May 24 Jun 14 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 105.175 Low Jun 7  

Schatz futures have traded higher this week, reinforcing a short-term bullish theme. Sights are on 105.837, a Fibonacci retracement point. A clear break of 105.837 would strengthen a bullish theme and expose 105.975, the Jun 14 high and key resistance. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on key short-term support at 105.390, the Jul 5 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish theme.                      

GILT TECHS: (U4) Holding On To Its Recent Gains                                        

• RES 4: 100.00 Psychological round number  
• RES 3: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 99.23 High Jun 21 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 98.93 High Jul 16 
• PRICE: 98.81 @ 08:10 Jul 19 
• SUP 1: 97.63/96.57 Low Jul 11 / 1 and a key support      
• SUP 2: 96.25 76.4% retracement of the May 29 - Jun 21 bull run      
• SUP 3: 96.12 Low Jun 10 
• SUP 4: 95.33 Low May 29 and a key support   

Gilt futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Resistance at 98.24, the Jun 28 high, has been cleared. That break, together with this week’s gains, signals scope for a climb towards key short-term resistance at 99.23, the Jun 21 high. Initial support to watch is 97.63, Jul 11 low. A break would highlight a reversal and this would instead refocus attention on 96.57, the Jul 1 low and a key short-term support.   

BTP TECHS: (U4) Impulsive Rally    

• RES 4:120.20 2.00 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 3: 119.55 1.764 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing 
• RES 2: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 118.73 High May 16 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: 118.28 @ 08:13 Jul 19 
• SUP 1: 117.00 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 116.07 Low Jul 8 
• SUP 3: 114.72 Low Jul 2 
• SUP 4: 114.35 Low Jun 11 and key support 

BTP futures remain in an uptrend and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The impulsive rally has resulted in a print above 118.58, the May 16 high. A continuation of the bull cycle would open the 119.00 handle next ahead of 119.55, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 117.00, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective and this would allow an overbought condition to unwind.                         

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Watching Support        

• RES 4: 5200.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 5151.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger      
• RES 2: 5132.00 High Jun 6
• RES 1: 4994.76/5087.00 50-day EMA / High Jul 12   
• PRICE: 4874.00 @ 08:14 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 4869.00 Low Jul 19 
• SUP 2: 4860.00 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4846.00 Low Apr 19 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 4800.00 Round number support   

A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact, despite the pullback in prices early Friday. The move lower this week does undermine the bullish theme somewhat, with price having traded through the 50-day EMA, exposing the next support at 4860.00, the Jun 14 low. Clearance of this level would expose 4846.00, the Apr 19 low and a key reversal point. For bulls, a move higher and a break of 5087.00, the Jul 12 high, would again highlight a bullish theme.          

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Corrective Pullback   

• RES 4: 5786.66 3.50 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 5764.00 3.50 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: 5741 34 3.382 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5721.25 High Jul 16      
• PRICE: 5587.50 @ 08:18 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 5570.25 Low Jul 19
• SUP 2: 5486.11 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5398.75 Low Jun 11 
• SUP 4: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support

The broader trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bullish and Thursday’s move lower appears to be a correction. The continuation higher last week and this week’s cycle high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies are in a clear bull-mode set-up too, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5741.34, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support is at 5486.11 the 50-day EMA.     

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U4) Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA              

• RES 4: $91.99 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing 
• RES 3: $90.23 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $89.32 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $87.95 - High Jul 5    
• PRICE: $84.59 @ 08:19 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: $83.30/82.31 - Low Jul 16 / 50.0% of the Jun 4 - Jul 5 bull leg  
• SUP 2: $79.32 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 4 - Jul 5 bull leg  
• SUP 3: $76.66 - Low Jun 4 and a key support
• SUP 4: $75.31 - Low Feb 5 

The trend condition in Brent futures remains bullish, however, a corrective cycle is in play and the contract has pierced $83.96, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for an extension towards $82.31, a Fibonacci retracement. Yesterday’s gains are a positive development and signal the end of the corrective cycle. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at $87.95, the Jul 5 high.    

WTI TECHS: (U4) Bullish Recovery                   

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $87.43 - 1.00 proj of the Dec 13 ‘23 - Apr 12 - Jun 4 swing 
• RES 2: $84.36 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $83.58 - High Jul 5   
• PRICE: $82.11 @ 08:21 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: $79.43 50-day EMA    
• SUP 2: $76.95 - Low Jun 13 
• SUP 3: $72.23 - Low Jun 4 and a key support 
• SUP 4: $70.73 - Low Feb 5 

WTI futures initially traded lower this week marking an extension of the  corrective cycle. However, the contract has recovered from Tuesday’s low and this signals the end of a corrective phase. Note that support at the 50-day EMA, at $79.43, remains intact. This average represents an important pivot level and a clear break would highlight a stronger reversal. Initial key resistance to watch is $83.58, the Jul 5 high.          

GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat       

• RES 4: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing   
• RES 3: $2528.4 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2500.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $2483.8 - High Jul 17                 
• PRICE: $2416.7 @ 08:25 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: $2382.6 - 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: $2348.9/2286.9 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 7
• SUP 3: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support 
• SUP 4: $2228.6 - Low Apr 1

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish, despite the fade off the mid-week highs. The broader gains this week reinforce current conditions, and keep the M/T trend pointed higher. The yellow metal has breached key resistance and the bull trigger at $2450.1, the May 20 high. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and opens the $2500.00 handle next. Moving average studies are in a clear bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Initial support is at $2382.6, the 20-day EMA.     

SILVER TECHS: Short-Term Structure Remains Bullish                    

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing        
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger               
• PRICE: $29.244 @ 08:27 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: $29.213 Low Jul 19               
• SUP 2: $27.971 - Low May 13  
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support  
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Silver has slipped through support early Friday, to tilt the S/T outlook bearish on the move through the 50-day EMA. Key support and the bear trigger lies just below at $28.573, the Jun 26 low. Any recovery and return higher would resume the bull cycle after the recent break of $30.853, the Jun 21 high. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of the key resistance and bull trigger at $32.518, the May 20 high.