MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/CAD Bulls In Driving Seat
Price Signal Summary – USD/CAD Bulls In Driving Seat
- A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present and the latest move down highlights the end of the recent Dec 20 - 26 corrective bounce. An extension lower would expose 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support. A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact, however, the recent move down highlights a corrective phase. Despite the latest bounce, a short-term bear threat remains present - for now. Key short-term support has been defined at 4829.00.
- EURUSD is trading inside a range and for now, remains above its recent lows. A bearish condition highlights scope for a test of key support at 1.0335, the Nov 22 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of downtrend and open 1.0311. USDJPY has pulled back from this week’s high, however, the move down appears corrective in light of an over-arching bullish condition. The recent breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has paved the way for a move towards 159.45. USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position.
- A bear threat in Gold remains present. The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. MA studies are in a bull mode position. WTI futures are trading higher today as the contract extends recent gains. A stronger reversal to the upside would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance at $71.97.
- The trend cycle in Bund futures remains bearish and the Dec 27 sharp sell-off reinforces current conditions. The contract has traded through 133.22, 76.4% of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle. This paves the way for an extension towards key support. A strong bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and this week’s gains are considered corrective - for now. The recent breach of 91.87, the Dec 19 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.0825 High Nov 7
- RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 2: 1.0565 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0442/0534 20-day EMA / High Dec 17
- PRICE: 1.0362 @ 06:04 GMT Jan 2
- SUP 1: 1.0343 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.0335 Low Nov 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0258 1.500 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
EURUSD is trading inside a range and for now, remains above its recent lows. A bearish condition highlights scope for a test of key support at 1.0335, the Nov 22 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of downtrend and open 1.0311, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0442, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.2874 High Nov 12
- RES 3: 1.2811 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 2: 1.2711 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.2598 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.2529 @ 06:19 GMT Jan 2
- SUP 1: 1.2476 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.2446 Low May 9
- SUP 3. 1.2400 Round number support
- SUP 4: 1.2367 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 ‘23 - Sep 26 uptrend
The trend structure in GBPUSD remains bearish and the pair is trading just above its recent lows. Key support at 1.2487, the Nov 22 low, was pierced on Dec 20. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.2446 next, the May 9 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance to monitor is 1.2811, the Dec 6 high.
EURGBP TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 3: 0.8376 High Nov 19 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.8356 High Nov 27
- RES 1: 0.8314/29 50-day EMA / High Dec 27
- PRICE: 0.8270 @ 06:28 GMT Jan 2
- SUP 1: 0.8223 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
- SUP 3: 0.8200 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.8188 1.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 - 19 price swing
EURGBP resistance at 0.8314, the 50-day EMA, has recently been pierced - but has so far failed to trigger a sharper move higher. A clear breach of the EMA would undermine the bear theme and highlight a stronger reversal. A resumption of the primary downtrend would pave the way for a move towards major support at 0.8203, the Mar 7 ‘22 low and the lowest point of a multi-year range.
USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 160.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 159.45 High Jul 12
- RES 2: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
- RES 1: 158.08 High Dec 26
- PRICE: 156.79 @ 06:43 GMT Jan 2
- SUP 1: 155.89/155.56 High Nov 20 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 154.44 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 153.56 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 152.46 Low Dec 13
USDJPY has pulled back from this week’s high, however, the move down appears corrective in light of an over-arching bullish condition. The recent breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has paved the way for a move towards 159.45, the Jul 12 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 155.56, the 20-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Pullback Appears Corrective
- RES 4: 166.76 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6
- RES 2: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 163.44/ High Dec 31
- PRICE: 162.37 @ 07:04 GMT Jan 2
- SUP 1: 162.14 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 161.57 38.2% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 160.54 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 159.12 Low Dec12
EURJPY has pulled back from Monday’s high, but a bullish short-term condition remains intact for now. Initial firm support to watch lies at 162.17, the 50-day EMA. The cross has recently breached all the relevant Fibonacci retracement points of the bear leg between Oct 31 - Dec 3. A resumption of gains would open 165.04, the Nov 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would expose 166.69, the Oct 31 high and the next major resistance.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6416 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 0.6247/6290 High Dec 30 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6212 @ 07:28 GMT Jan 2
- SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair continues to trade closer to latest lows. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6290, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Flag Formation
- RES 4: 1.4669 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4393 @ 07:52 GMT Jan 2
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4297/4232 20-day EMA / Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4125 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4297, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (H5) Retracement Mode Intact
- RES 4: 137.75 Low Dec 10
- RES 3: 135.15 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 134.59 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 133.79 High Dec 27
- PRICE: 133.13 05:39 GMT Jan 2
- SUP 1: 132.71 Low Dec 30
- SUP 2 132.00 Low Nov 6 and key support
- SUP 3: 130.78 123..6% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull leg
- SUP 4: 130.00 Psychological round number
The trend cycle in Bund futures remains bearish and the Dec 27 sharp sell-off reinforces current conditions. The contract has traded through 133.22, 76.4% of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle. This paves the way for an extension towards key support at 132.00, the Nov 6 low. Initial resistance is seen at 133.79, the Dec 27 high. Key short-term resistance is at 134.59, the 20-day EMA. Gains are considered corrective - for now.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 118.640 Low Dec 6
- RES 3: 118.520 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 118.304 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 118.010 High Dec 27
- PRICE: 117.740 @ 05:56 GMT Jan 2
- SUP 1: 117.490 Low Dec 30
- SUP 2: 117.350 Low Nov 7
- SUP 3: 117.180 Low Nov 6 and key support
- SUP 4: 117.000 Round number support
A bear cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and the Dec 27 sell-off reinforces the bearish set-up. Price has traded through 117.723, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle. A continuation would set the scene for a move towards key support at 117.180, the Nov 6 low. Initial resistance has been defined at 118.010, the Dec 27 high. Key short-term resistance is seen at 118.304, the 20-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 107.365 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 107.170 High Dec 20
- RES 2: 107.109 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 107.055 High Dec 30
- PRICE: 106.9455 @ 06:09 GMT Jan 2
- SUP 1: 106.900 Low Dec 30
- SUP 2: 106.854 1.382 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.810 1.500 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.766 1.618 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
The current bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and recent weakness reinforces this theme. The Dec 27 sell-off confirms a resumption of the bear leg and opens 106.854, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 107.109, the 20-day EMA. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a potential reversal. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective.
GILT TECHS: (H5) Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 94.50 High Dec 16
- RES 3: 93.64 High Dec 17
- RES 2: 93.35 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 92.64/93.09 High Dec 31 / 21
- PRICE: 92.41 @ Close Dec 31
- SUP 1: 91.64 Low Dec 19 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 91.58 4.382 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
- SUP 3: 91.45 4.500 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
- SUP 4: 91.33 4.618 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
A strong bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and this week’s gains are considered corrective - for now. The recent breach of 91.87, the Dec 19 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 91.58 next, a 4.382 projection of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing. Initial firm resistance is at 93.09, the Dec 20 high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 93.35, and the average is seen as an important hurdle for bulls.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 123.34 High Dec 11 and key resistance
- RES 3: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 121.94 High Dec 13
- RES 1: 120.70/121.03 High Dec 20 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 119.98 @ Close Dec 30
- SUP 1: 119.41 Low Dec 27
- SUP 2: 119.11 Low Nov 18
- SUP 3: 118.80 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low Nov 8
A corrective cycle in BTP futures has resulted in a pullback from its recent highs and the Dec 27 sell-off highlights an extension of the current bear cycle. The contract has recently breached the 20-day EMA and sights are on 118.80, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 123.34, the Dec 11 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 121.03, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 5040.00 High Dec 9 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 5027.00 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 5002.00 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 4939.00 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 4918.00 @ 06:15 GMT Jan 2
- SUP 1: 4829.00 Low Dec 20 and key short-term support
- SUP 2: 4800.87 76.4% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 4775.00 Low Nov 29
- SUP 4: 4727.00 Low Nov 21 and a key support
A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact, however, the recent move down highlights a corrective phase. Despite the latest bounce, a short-term bear threat remains present - for now. Key short-term support has been defined at 4829.00, the Dec 20 low. A break of it would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle and open 4800.87, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is at 4939.00, the Dec 19 high.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Bear Threat
- RES 4: 6194.19 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
- RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 1: 6011.35/6107.50 50-day EMA / High Dec 26
- PRICE: 5967.75 @ 07:21 GMT Jan 2
- SUP 1: 5866.00 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 5811.65 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
- SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present and the latest move down highlights the end of the recent Dec 20 - 26 corrective bounce. An extension lower would expose 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. A break of this level is required to open key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (H5) Approaching A Firm Resistance
- RES 4: $83.79 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $81.35 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $79.50/80.03 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $75.43 - High Nov 5
- PRICE: $74.86 @ 07:01 GMT Jan 2
- SUP 1: $71.59 - Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: $69.45/67.85 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $67.03 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 5 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $64.79 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures have traded higher this week and breached $74.45, the Nov 22 high. A clearer reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at $79.50, the Oct 7 high. The next firm resistance to watch is $75.43, the Nov 5 high. The trend outlook remains bearish and moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the bear leg would open $69.45 Oct 1 low, and $67.85, the Sep 10 low and a key support.
WTI TECHS: (G5) Pierces Resistance
- RES 4: $77.41 - High Jul 18
- RES 3: $76.41 - High Oct 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $73.96 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 8 - 29 bear leg
- RES 1: $72.29 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $72.05 @ 07:13 GMT Jan 2
- SUP 1: $68.42 - Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: $65.57/63.73 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $62.85 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 5 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
WTI futures are trading higher today as the contract extends recent gains. A stronger reversal to the upside would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance at $71.97, the Nov 7 high, has been pierced. A clear breach of this level would be a positive price development. On the downside, a resumption of the bear cycle would open $65.57, the Oct 1 low, and $63.73, the Sep 10 low and key support.
GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 3: $2692.8/2726.2 - High Dec 12
- RES 2: $2664.5 - High Dec 16 / 13
- RES 1: $2636.8/2692.8 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 13
- PRICE: $2633.9 @ 07:16 GMT Jan 2
- SUP 1: $2583.6 - Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 3: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 4: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
A bear threat in Gold remains present. The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. MA studies are in a bull mode position highlighting a medium-term uptrend and this suggests that the latest sell-off is likely a correction. Initial pivot resistance is $2636.8, the 50-day EMA. A breach of this EMA would be positive for bulls.
SILVER TECHS: Bearish Cycle Still Intact
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $30.607 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $29.309 @ 07:57 GMT Jan 2
- SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.