MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDCAD Clears Trend Peak
Price Signal Summary – USDCAD Clears Trend Peak
- The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. A key short-term support has been defined at 5724.25, the Nov 4 low. The latest rally resulted in a breach of the bull trigger at 5927.25, Oct 17 high. A bearish condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and Tuesday’s extension down reinforces current conditions. The sell-off confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30. Price has breached 4746.94, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle.
- GBPUSD traded sharply lower yesterday, solidifying the downtrend. Tuesday’s move resulted in a breach of support at 1.2834, the Nov 6 low. The clear break confirms a resumption of the downtrend, compounded by the weakness through 1.2762, the Aug 13 low. The USDJPY trend condition is unchanged and remains bullish. This week’s climb has resulted in a breach of resistance at 154.71, the Nov 11 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.USDCAD is trading at this week’s highs and has topped the most recent trend peak of 1.3959, the Nov 1 / 6 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and confirm a clear breach of key resistance at 1.3946, the Aug 5 high.
- The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. However, recent weakness has resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA, and Tuesday’s sell-off delivered a print below the 50-day EMA, at $2644.4. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move lower from the Nov 7 high, reinforces current conditions. An extension lower would expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and key support.
- Bund futures have pulled back from their recent highs. Short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. The trend direction is down and the Nov 6 break to a fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The 131.00 handle has been cleared, signalling potential for 129.99. The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged and remains bearish. Short-term gains are considered corrective. The contract has recently breached 92.99, a 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Heading South
- RES 4: 1.0997 High Oct 8
- RES 3: 1.0937 High Nov 5 and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 1.0761/0811 Low Oct 23 / 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0683 Low Nov 6
- PRICE: 1.0608 @ 06:13 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: 1.0595 Low Nov 12
- SUP 2: 1.0568 Low Nov 2 2023
- SUP 3: 1.0517 Low Nov 1 2023
- SUP 4: 1.0448 Low Sep 3 2023 and a key support
EURUSD remains in a clear downtrend and this week’s extension reinforces the current trend condition. Last week, the Nov 6 sell-off highlighted a resumption of the downtrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant bear trend. Sights are on 1.0568 support, the Nov 2 ‘23 low. Key resistance has been defined at 1.0937, the Nov 5 and 6 high. Initial firm resistance is 1.0811, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Support
- RES 4: 1.3274 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 1.3175 High Oct 4
- RES 2: 1.2957/3048 20-day EMA / High Nov 6 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.2834 Low Nov 6
- PRICE: 1.2741 @ 06:27 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: 1.2719 Low Nov 12
- SUP 2: 1.2665 Low Aug 8 and key support
- SUP 3. 1.2660 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.2613 Low Jun 27
GBPUSD traded sharply lower yesterday, solidifying the downtrend. Tuesday’s move resulted in a breach of support at 1.2834, the Nov 6 low. The clear break confirms a resumption of the downtrend, compounded by the weakness through 1.2762, the Aug 13 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode condition, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 1.2665, the Aug 8 low. Key short-term resistance is at 1.3048, the Nov 6 high.
EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 0.8523 High Aug 22
- RES 3: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8371/0.8448 50-day EMA / High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.8344 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8331 @ 06:44 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: 0.8260 Low Nov 11
- SUP 2: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
- SUP 4: 0.8200 Round number support
EURGBP recovered Tuesday, bouncing off the fresh cycle low printed at the start of the week. Short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. The cross has recently breached support at 0.8295, the Oct 18 low, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. Note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 0.8250, the Apr 14 2022 low. Key short-term resistance is at 0.8448, the Oct 31 high.
USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Price Sequence Extends
- RES 4: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 3: 156.67 76.4% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 156.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 155.27 2.00 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- PRICE: 155.05 @ 06:53 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: 152.03 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 150.03 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 149.09 Low Oct 21
- SUP 4: 147.35 Low Oct 8
The USDJPY trend condition is unchanged and remains bullish. This week’s climb has resulted in a breach of resistance at 154.71, the Nov 11 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 155.27, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 152.03, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal the start of a short-term corrective cycle.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 169.20 High Jul 24
- RES 3: 168.01 High Jul 26
- RES 2: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 1: 165.43/166.69 High Nov 8 / High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 164.46 @ 07:08 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: 163.41/21 50-day EMA / Low Nov 8
- SUP 2: 161.85/161.01 Low Oct 17 / Low Oct 4
- SUP 3: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / 16
A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The 50-day EMA lies at 163.41. It has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 161.85, the Oct 17 low. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and recent gains suggest scope for a climb towards 167.40, a Fibonacci retracement point.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Trigger Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 3: 0.6727 50.0% retracement of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6671/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7
- RES 1: 0.6622 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6524 @ 07:57 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: 0.6513 Low Nov 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.6508 Low Aug 8
- SUP 3: 0.6490 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.6472 Low Aug 6
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and recent gains appear to have been a correction. The latest sell-off signals the end of the Nov 6 - 7 corrective bounce and attention is on key support and the bear trigger at 0.6513, the Nov 6 low. A breach of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6490, a Fibonacci retracement point. Firm resistance is at 0.6671, the 50-day EMA (pierced).
USDCAD TECHS: Trading At This Week’s Highs
- RES 4: 1.4188 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘22 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 1: 1.3967 High Nov 12
- PRICE: 1.3960 @ 08:00 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: 1.3851/22 20-day EMA and a key S/T support / Low Nov 6
- SUP 2: 1.3757 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3611 Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Oct 7
USDCAD is trading at this week’s highs and has topped the most recent trend peak of 1.3959, the Nov 1 / 6 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and confirm a clear breach of key resistance at 1.3946, the Aug 5 high. This would signal potential for a climb towards 1.3977, the Oct 13 2022 high and a key medium-term resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3860, the 20-day EMA.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Resistance At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 134.25 High Oct 16
- RES 3: 133.54 High Oct 24 and key resistance
- RES 2: 133.07 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 132.49/74 20-day EMA / High Nov 12
- PRICE: 131.74 @ 05:51 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: 131.39/130.58 Low Nov 8 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2 129.99 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 3: 129.48 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 4: 129.08 1.500 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
Bund futures have pulled back from their recent highs. Short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. The trend direction is down and the Nov 6 break to a fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The 131.00 handle has been cleared, signalling potential for 129.99, a Fibonacci projection. Initial key resistance is at 132.49, the 20-day EMA (pierced). A clear break of it would be seen as an early bullish development.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 119.620 High Oct 18
- RES 3: 119.330 High Oct 24
- RES 2: 118.937 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 118.830 High Nov 12
- PRICE: 118.310 @ 06:05 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: 117.910/680 Low Nov 7 / Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 117.570 2.00 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 3: 117.362 2.236 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 4: 117.234 2.382 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
A sharp sell-off in Bobl futures on Oct 30 highlighted a strong bearish condition and the move down confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started Oct 1. The sell-off opens 117.570, a Fibonacci extension point. The latest recovery appears corrective. The 20-day EMA has been breached, however, the contract has pulled back from its latest high. The 50-day EMA is at 118.937 and marks the next key resistance.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: 107.110 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 107.070 High Oct 24 and the near-term bull trigger
- RES 2: 106.945 High Oct 29
- RES 1: 106.875/852 Trendline drawn off the Oct 1 high / High Nov 12
- PRICE: 106.730 @ 06:11 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: 106.485/375 Low Nov 5 / Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 106.315 1.000 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.137 1.1236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.027 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
Despite the current bull cycle in Schatz futures, a bearish trend condition remains intact. The trend is oversold and the latest move higher is allowing this condition to unwind. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 106.375, the Oct 31 low and the short-term bear trigger. The 50-day EMA has been breached, the next resistance to watch is 106.852, a trendline drawn off the Oct 1 high. It has been pierced, but remains intact.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 96.65 High Oct 30
- RES 3: 95.83 Low Oct 10
- RES 2: 95.00 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 94.73 High Nov 1
- PRICE: 93.82 @ Close Nov 12
- SUP 1: 92.53 Low Nov 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 92.23 2.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 92.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 91.75 2.3821 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged and remains bearish. Short-term gains are considered corrective. The contract has recently breached 92.99, a 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing. This signals scope for an extension towards 92.23, the 2.236 projection. The Oct 30 high of 96.65, is seen as a key short-term resistance where a break is required to highlight a possible base. Initial resistance is 94.73, Nov 1 high.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Tests Resistance AT The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 121.53/122.62 High Oct 25 / 1 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 120.13/26 50-day EMA / High Nov 12
- PRICE: 119.75 @ Close Nov 12
- SUP 1: 119.00/117.88 Low Nov 8 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 117.70 61.8% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 117.34 Low Jul 26
- SUP 4: 116.54 76.4% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
BTP futures continue to trade closer to their recent highs. Despite the latest bounce, the contract maintains a bearish tone. Price traded lower last week strengthening a bearish threat. A resumption of the downtrend would refocus attention on 117.70, a Fibonacci retracement point. Resistance to watch is 120.13, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of the average would cancel the bearish threat.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Bear Cycle Extension
- RES 4: 5015.00 High Oct 21
- RES 3: 5106.00 High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 4961.00 High Nov 6 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 4886.90 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 4729.00 @ 06:25 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: 4728.00 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 4707.00 Low Aug 9
- SUP 3: 4662.12 .76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4586.00 Low Aug 6
A bearish condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and Tuesday’s extension down reinforces current conditions. The sell-off confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30. Price has breached 4746.94, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle. This exposes 4662.12, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 4961.00, Nov high, where a break would highlight a reversal.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 6145.26 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6103.88 1.500 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 6070.16 1.382 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 6053.25 High Nov 11
- PRICE: 5996.00 @ 07:18 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: 5927.25 High Oct 17 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 2: 5892.23/5809.43 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 5724.25 Low Nov 4 and a key support
- SUP 4: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. A key short-term support has been defined at 5724.25, the Nov 4 low. The latest rally resulted in a breach of the bull trigger at 5927.25, Oct 17 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. The 6000.0 psychological handle has been pierced. Sights are on 6070.16, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is at 5927.25, the Oct 17 high.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (F5) Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: $84.90 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $82.40 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $80.55/91 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $76.24 - High Nov 5
- PRICE: $72.04 @ 07:02 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: $70.28 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $69.68/68.01 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $66.38 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Resistance in Brent futures remains intact and recent gains appear to have been a correction. Monday's move lower reinforces a bear theme. An extension lower would expose support at $69.68, Oct 1 low, and $68.01, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at $80.55, the Oct 7 high. Clearance of this level resumes the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is at $76.24, the Nov 5 high.
WTI TECHS: (Z4) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $80.95 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $78.81 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $75.45/77.70 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.88 - High Nov 7
- PRICE: $68.24 @ 07:13 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: $66.72 - Low Oct 28
- SUP 2: $65.99/64.16 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.91 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move lower from the Nov 7 high, reinforces current conditions. An extension lower would expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a clear reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.70, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is $72.88, the Nov 7 high.
GOLD TECHS: Corrective Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: $2814.7- 3.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $2689.5/2750.0 - 20-day EMA / High Nov 5
- RES 1: $2644.4 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $2604.5 @ 07:18 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: $2584.9 - Low Sep 20
- SUP 2: $2547.0 - Low Sep18
- SUP 3: $2531.8 - High Aug 20
- SUP 4: $2492.0 - Low Sep 2
The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. However, recent weakness has resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA, and Tuesday’s sell-off delivered a print below the 50-day EMA, at $2644.4. The breach signals scope for a deeper retracement towards $2547.0 the Sep 18 low. Firm resistance is seen at $2689.5, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this average is required to signal a reversal.
SILVER TECHS: Testing Trendline Support
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $32.107 - 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 30.840 @ 08:02 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: $29.680 - 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and the bear cycle that started on Oct 23 is considered corrective - for now. However this corrective cycle remains in play and the metal continues to weaken. Price has breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and pierced $30.504, a trendline support. A clear break would expose $29.680, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on $34.903, the Oct 23 high and bull trigger.