MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDCAD Tops Key Resistance

Price Signal Summary - USDCAD breaks key resistance to strengthen bullish conditions

• S&P e-minis maintain a softer tone and the contract is trading lower today. This week’s breach of support at 4235.50, the Oct 4 low and bear trigger, confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows. A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and last week’s extension lower reinforces current conditions. Support at 4082.00, the Oct 4 low and a bear trigger, has been cleared.
• EURUSD is trading lower as it extends the pullback from 1.0694, Tuesday’s high. The move lower reinforces a bearish theme and suggests that the recent correction between Oct 3 - 24 is over. Note too that Tuesday’s price pattern is a bearish engulfing candle. The trend outlook in EURJPY remains bullish. Gains earlier in the week resulted in a print above key resistance at 159.76, the Aug 30 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of 159.76 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The USDCAD trend condition remains bullish. The pair traded higher yesterday resulting in a break of key resistance at 1.3786, the Oct 5 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
• Gold remains firm and is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The yellow metal has breached key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high, and $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. WTI futures have traded lower this week as the pullback from last Friday’s $89.85 high extends. The medium-term trend condition is bullish and the latest move lower appears to be a correction.
• Bund futures remain in a downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. The contract has pulled back from Tuesday’s high and is again trading below the 20-day EMA. Initial support to watch is 127.18. Gilt futures maintain a bearish theme and this week’s gains are considered corrective. For bears, price has recently traded through key support at 91.47, the Aug 17 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend.

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.0862 50.0% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0809 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 1.0764 38.2% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0694/0737 High Oct 24 / High Sep 20
• PRICE: 1.0545 @ 05:48 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 1.0496 Low Oct 13
• SUP 2: 1.0448 Low Oct 03 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0406 50.0% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0360 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURUSD is trading lower as it extends the pullback from 1.0694, Tuesday’s high. The move lower reinforces a bearish theme and suggests that the recent correction between Oct 3 - 24 is over. Note too that Tuesday’s price pattern is a bearish engulfing candle - a reversal signal. A continuation lower would signal scope for 1.0496, the Oct 13 low. The key support and bear trigger lies at 1.0448, Oct 3 low. Key short-term resistance is 1.0694.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.2506 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 1.2442 200-dma
• RES 2: 1.2340 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2289/2337 High Oct 24 / 11 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2082 @ 06:21 Oct 26
• SUP 1: 1.2037/28 Low Oct 04 and bear trigger / Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 1.2011 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.1964 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1908 Low Mar 10

GBPUSD continues to pull away from Tuesday’s high and is again trading lower today. Recent gains are considered corrective and the trend is bearish. The focus is on 1.2037, the Oct 4 low and bear trigger. A break of this level would resume the downtrend that started in July and open 1.1964, a 3.00 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing. For bulls, clearance of 1.2337, the Oct 11 high, would signal scope for a stronger corrective cycle.

EURGBP TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 3: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 1: 0.8741 High Oct 20
• PRICE: 0.8728 @ 06:37 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 0.8674 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8645/16 50-day EMA / Low Oct 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8569 Low Sep 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8558 Low Sep 11

A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact. The recent breach of key short-term resistance at 0.8706, the Sep 26 high and a bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition too, highlighting positive market sentiment. The focus is on 0.8793, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8674, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 153.52 2.236 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 3: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 151.95 High Oct 21 and a major resistance
• RES 1: 151.09 2.764 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• PRICE: 150.47 @ 06:52 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 149.37/147.43 20-day EMA / Low Oct 3 and key support
• SUP 2: 146.44 Low Sep 12
• SUP 3: 145.91 Low Sep 11
• SUP 4: 144.45 Low Sep 1

USDJPY is trading higher today. Resistance at 150.16, the Oct 3 high, has been breached and this marks a resumption of the uptrend and a continuation of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this reflects the market's positive sentiment. Sights are on 151.09 next, a Fibonacci projection point. Initial support to watch is 149.37, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 161.52 2.618 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.94 2.50 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 160.36 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 159.92 High Oct 24
• PRICE: 158.67 @ 07:02 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 158.16 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 156.98 Low Oct 16
• SUP 3: 155.83 Low Oct 4
• SUP 4: 154.46 Oct 3 and the bear trigger

The trend outlook in EURJPY remains bullish. Gains earlier in the week resulted in a print above key resistance at 159.76, the Aug 30 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of 159.76 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 160.36, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 158.16, the 20-day EMA. Key support is far off at 154.46, the Oct 3 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Pierces Key Support

• RES 4: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6445/6501 High Oct 11 / High Sep 29
• RES 1: 0.6414 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6295 @ 07:27 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6170 Low Oct 13 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6135 2.50 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

A bearish outlook in AUDUSD remains intact and today’s low print reinforces this theme. The pair has pierced 0.6286, the Oct 3 / 13 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6215, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend resistance is unchanged at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. Clearance of this level is required to highlight a reversal. Initial resistance to watch is at 0.6414, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Trades Through Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.4070 1.236 proj of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 - Oct 10 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3977 High Oct 13 and a major resistance
• RES 2: 1.3973 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.3862 High Mar 10 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.3817 @ 07:57 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 1.3665/3586 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.3477 76.4% retracement of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 rally
• SUP 3: 1.3417 Low Sep 29
• SUP 4: 1.3381 Low Sep 19 and a key support

The USDCAD trend condition remains bullish. The pair traded higher yesterday resulting in a break of key resistance at 1.3786, the Oct 5 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and confirm a resumption of the uptrend. This would open 1.3862, the Mar 10 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 1.3651, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 131.33 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
• RES 3: 130.43 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
• RES 2: 130.20 High Oct 12 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 129.12/129.51 High Oct 24 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 127.79 @ 05:25 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 127.18 Low Oct 23
• SUP 2: 126.62 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 125.49 0.764 proj of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

Bund futures remain in a downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. The contract has pulled back from Tuesday’s high and is again trading below the 20-day EMA. Initial support to watch is 127.18, the Oct 23 low. A break would be a bearish development and expose the bear trigger at 126.62. On the upside, a resumption of gains would signal scope for a test of resistance at 129.51, the 50-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Bearish Theme

• RES 4: 116.567 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Sep 28 downleg
• RES 3: 116.500 High Oct 10 and the short-term bull trigger
• RES 2: 116.380 High Oct 13
• RES 1: 116.030 High Oct 25
• PRICE: 115.560 @ 05:40 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 115.130 Low Oct 19
• SUP 2: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 114.710 Low Aug 15 (cont)
• SUP 4: 114.414 0.764 proj of the Sep 1 - 28 - Oct 12 price swing

Recent gains in Bobl futures appear to be a correction. The sell-off between Oct 10 - 19, undermines the recent bullish theme. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at 114.880, the Sep 28 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Key short-term resistance and a bull trigger has been defined at 116.500, the Oct 10 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Recent Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 3: 105.372 76.4% Fibonacci retracement Sep 1 - 21 downleg
• RES 2: 105.190/105.320 High Oct 12 / 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 105.140 High Oct 13
• PRICE: 104.975 @ 05:52 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 104.800 Low Oct 19
• SUP 2: 104.765 Low Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

A bear threat in Schatz futures remains present and recent gains are considered corrective. Key resistance is at 105.320, the Oct 10 high and marks a short-term bull trigger. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support at 104.765, the Sep 21 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Initial resistance is at 105.140, the Oct 13 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Recent Recovery Appears To Be A Short-Term Correction

• RES 4: 96.05 High Sep 25
• RES 3: 95.66 High Oct 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 93.82/94.28 61.8% of the Oct 12 - 23 bear leg / High Oct 16
• RES 1: 93.34 High Oct 24
• PRICE: 92.24 @ Close Oct 25
• SUP 1: 90.85 Low Oct 23
• SUP 2: 90.38 Low Oct 12 2022 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 3: 90.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 89.22 1.236 proj of the Sep 20 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

Gilt futures maintain a bearish theme and this week’s gains are considered corrective. For bears, price has recently traded through key support at 91.47, the Aug 17 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and paves the way for a move towards 90.38, the Oct 12 2022 low (cont) and a major support. Initial resistance is at 93.34, Tuesday’s high. A break would suggest scope for a stronger correction.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 113.69 76.4% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 112.53 61.8% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 111.59 50.0% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 110.00/111.17 High Oct 24 / 12 and key resistance
• PRICE: 108.59 @ Close Oct 25
• SUP 1: 107.42 Low Oct 19
• SUP 2: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.85 2.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

BTP futures traded to a fresh cycle low last week as the contract extended the reversal from 111.17, the Oct 12 high. Price has recently pierced key support at 107.62, the Oct 4 low. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the long-term downtrend and open 107.08, a Fibonacci projection. 111.17 marks the key resistance. A break is required to highlight a possible short-term reversal. Recent gains are considered corrective.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4211.40/4256.00 50-day EMA / High Oct 12
• RES 1: 4142.30 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4047.00 @ 06:41 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 4006.00 Low Oct 23
• SUP 2: 3979.00 1.00 proj of the Sep 15 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 3914.00 Low Mar 20 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3873.20 1.382 proj of the Sep 15 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and last week’s extension lower reinforces current conditions. Support at 4082.00, the Oct 4 low and a bear trigger, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on the 4000.00 handle. Initial firm resistance is at 4142.30, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 4469.25 Trendline resistance drawn from the Jul 27 high
• RES 3: 4430.50 High Oct 12
• RES 2: 4391.63 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4213.25/4328.94 Low Oct 23 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4181.00 @ 05:58 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 4166.25 1.50 proj of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 2: 4134.00 Low May 4
• SUP 3: 4124.19 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Jul bull leg (cont)
• SUP 4: 4100.00 Round number support

S&P e-minis maintain a softer tone and the contract is trading lower today. This week’s breach of support at 4235.50, the Oct 4 low and bear trigger, confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too. The focus is on 4166.25, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 4328.94, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z3) Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: $99.73 - 1.236 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 3: $96.22 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 2: $95.35 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $93.79 - High Oct 20
• PRICE: $89.30 @ 06:59 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: $85.18/83.44 - Low Oct 12 / 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $82.80 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $81.33 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $79.84 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

Brent futures traded lower yesterday, extending the pullback from last week’s high of $93.79 (Oct 20), before recovering. The trend condition is bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Key support lies at $83.44, the Oct 6 low. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at $95.35, the Sep 28 high. For bears, a break of $83.44, would highlight potential for a stronger bear cycle.

WTI TECHS: (Z3) Watching Support

• RES 4: $98.27 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: $96.03 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: $92.48 - High Sep 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $89.85 - High Oct 20
• PRICE: $84.59 @ 07:09 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: $80.20 - Low Oct 6 and key support
• SUP 2: $77.74 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $75.47 - Low Jul 24
• SUP 4: $74.26 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

WTI futures have traded lower this week as the pullback from last Friday’s $89.85 high extends. The medium-term trend condition is bullish and the latest move lower appears to be a correction. A resumption of gains would expose the bull trigger at $92.48, the Sep 28 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. For bears, a move through $80.20, the Oct 6 low, would instead highlight a short-term top.

GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $2048.2 - High May 10
• RES 3: $2022.2 - High May 15
• RES 2: $2003.4 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Oct 6 bear leg
• RES 1: $1997.2 - High Oct 20
• PRICE: $1985.0 @ 07:15 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: $1945.3/1915.3 - Low Oct 19 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13
• SUP 3: $1844.3 - Low Oct 9
• SUP 4: $1810.5 - Low Oct 6 and a key support

Gold remains firm and is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The yellow metal has breached key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high, and $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. The break strengthens a bullish theme and opens $2003.4, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm pivot support lies at $1915.3, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level is required to signal a short-term top and a potential reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $25.267 - High Jul 20
• RES 3: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $24.298 - High Sep 4
• RES 1: $23.774 - High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $22.979 @ 08:01 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: $22.626 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $21.573/20.689 - Low Oct 9 / 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

A bull cycle in Silver remains in play and the metal is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has recently breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break of the 50-day average, at $22.829, strengthens bullish conditions and the move higher has opened $23.774, the Sep 22 high. For bears, a reversal lower and a break of $20.689, Oct 3 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Initial support to watch is $22.626, the 20-day EMA.