MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Approaching Key Resistance Zone

Price Signal Summary – USDJPY Approaching Key Resistance Zone

• S&P E-minis traded higher Wednesday. Price remains above the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4112.23. A continuation higher would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 4206.25, the May 1 high. Clearance of this level would confirm an extension of the bull trend that started Mar 13. Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade above support at 4247.40, the 50-day EMA. The broader uptrend is intact and moving average studies remain in a bull mode position. A stronger resumption of gains would signal scope for a test of 4363.00, the Apr 21 high and a bull trigger.
• USDJPY maintains a bullish tone and Wednesday’s gains reinforce current conditions. The pair is approaching resistance at 137.77, the May 2 high and 137.91, the Mar 8 high. A clear break of this resistance zone would strengthen bullish conditions and confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Jan 16. AUDUSD maintains a softer tone following the pullback from 0.6818, the May 10 high, and is trading at this week’s lows. A continuation lower would expose key support at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle.
• Gold remains in a bearish cycle and is trading at its recent lows. Support to watch is $1977.0, the 50-day EMA and $1969.3, the Apr 19 low. A clear break of this support zone is required to highlight a stronger bearish threat. WTI futures traded higher Wednesday. A short-term bearish threat remains present and initial resistance at $73.93, the Apr 28 low, is intact. A resumption of weakness and a break of $69.41, the May 15 low, would strengthen near-term bearish conditions.
• Bund futures are trading at this week’s lows following the recent move lower from 137.29, the May 11 high. The contract has breached support at the 20-day EMA and attention is on 134.99, the May 10 low. This represents a key short-term support and a break would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Gilt futures traded lower Wednesday but, for now, price remains above key support at 99.73, Apr 19 low. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on resistance at 102.46 May 3 high, where a break would reinstate a bullish theme.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Maintains A Bearish Tone

• RES 4: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1054/95 High May 8 / High Apr 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1007 High May 10
• RES 1: 1.0905/0935 High May 16 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0836 @ 05:40 BST May 18
• SUP 1: 1.0805 50.0% retracement of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 bull run
• SUP 2: 1.0788 Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: 1.0737 61.8% retracement of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 bull run
• SUP 4: 1.0713 Low Mar 24

EURUSD maintains a bearish short-term tone and the pair traded lower yesterday, extending the bear cycle that started on Apr 26. The 50-day EMA, at 1.0889 and a key support, has been breached. This signals scope for an extension lower towards 1.0805 next, 50.0% retracement of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 bull run. The current pullback is still considered corrective. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0915, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.2814 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2767 61.8% of the Jun 1 ‘21 - Sep 26 ‘22 downtrend
• RES 2: 1.2680 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2547/2641 High May 16 / 11
• PRICE: 1.2474 @ 05:53 BST May 18
• SUP 1: 1.2422 Low May 17
• SUP 2: 1.2407 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2275 Low Apr 3

A short-term corrective cycle in GBPUSD remains in play following the pullback from last week’s high of 1.2680, on May 10. Yesterday’s low print reinforces the short-term bearish theme. The focus is on the 50-day EMA which intersects at 1.2407 - a key short-term support. A clear break of this average would strengthen bearish conditions. Initial resistance is at 1.2547, the May 16 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8777 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8744 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8686 @ 06:05 BST May 18
• SUP 1: 0.8661 Low May 11
• SUP 2: 0.8649 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 0.8593 Low Dec 15 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8562 Low Dec 13 2022

EURGBP is consolidating and remains closer to its recent lows. The trend condition is bearish. The break of 0.8719, the Mar 15 low, confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that began Feb 3 and this has opened 0.8649, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, Initial firm resistance is at 0.8744, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA intersects at 0.8777 where a clear break is required to signal a potential reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching A Key Resistance Zone

• RES 4: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 139.59 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Jan bear cycle
• RES 2: 138.17 High Dec 15
• RES 1: 137.77/91 High May 2 / High Mar 8 and key resistance
• PRICE: 137.58 @ 06:22 BST May 18
• SUP 1: 136.31 Low May 17
• SUP 2: 135.22/134.40 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 133.50 Low May 4
• SUP 4: 133.02 Low Apr 26 and a key near-term support

USDJPY maintains a bullish tone and Wednesday’s gains reinforce current conditions. The pair is approaching resistance at 137.77, the May 2 high and 137.91, the Mar 8 high. A clear break of this resistance zone would strengthen bullish conditions and confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Jan 16. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 135.22, the 20-day EMA. Key support is far off at 133.50, the May 4 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Short-Term Recovery Extends

• RES 4: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 150.32 76.4% retracement of the May 2 - 11 bear leg
• RES 1: 149.27 High May 8 and intraday high
• PRICE: 148.99 @ 06:38 BST May 18
• SUP 1: 147.85 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 146.34/13 50-day EMA / Low May 11
• SUP 3: 145.67 High Mar 31
• SUP 4: 145.07 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURJPY traded higher Wednesday as the cross extended the bounce from 146.13, the May 11 low. Support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 146.34, remains intact. Attention is on 149.27, the May 8 high. A break of this hurdle would strengthen short-term bullish conditions and open 150.32, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 0.6708/6818 50-day EMA / High May 10
• PRICE: 0.6638 @ 08:06 BST May 18
• SUP 1: 0.6629 Low May 17
• SUP 2: 0.6565 Low May 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6547 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

AUDUSD maintains a softer tone following the pullback from 0.6818, the May 10 high, and is trading at this week’s lows. A continuation lower would expose key support at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 2 and highlight a range breakout. On the upside, a breach of 0.6818 is required to reinstate a bullish theme and this would expose 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDCAD TECHS: Holding Above Support

• RES 4: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3640 High May 3
• RES 1: 1.3568 High May 15
• PRICE: 1.3471 @ 08:09 BST May 18
• SUP 1: 1.3404 Low May 16
• SUP 2: 1.3363/15 Low May 11 / 8
• SUP 3: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 1.3275 Low Feb 14

USDCAD found support at the Tuesday low - a possible bullish development. A strong rally last week eased recent bearish pressure and the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.3514. A clear break of this average would strengthen the case for bulls and signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 1.3668, the Apr 28 high. Key support lies at 1.3302, the Apr 14 low. A break would reinstate the recent bearish theme.FIXED INCOME

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Trading At This Week’s Lows

• RES 4: 138.09 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 137.55 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 137.29 High May 11
• RES 1: 136.38 High May 16
• PRICE: 135.31 @ 05:16 BST May 18
• SUP 1: 135.14/134.99 2 Low May 16 / 10
• SUP 2: 134.35 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 133.64 Low Apr 28
• SUP 4: 133.10 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger

Bund futures are trading at this week’s lows following the recent move lower from 137.29, the May 11 high. The contract has breached support at the 20-day EMA and attention is on 134.99, the May 10 low. This represents a key short-term support and a break would signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 137.29 where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Short-Term Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 119.621 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 downleg
• RES 3: 119.190 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 119.120 High May 4 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 118.610/119.020 High May 16 / 11
• PRICE: 117.820 @ 05:34 BST May 18
• SUP 1: 117.750 Low May 17
• SUP 2: 117.370 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 116.890 Low Apr 28
• SUP 4: 116.420 Low Apr19 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures traded lower again Wednesday and a short-term corrective cycle remains in play. The contract has breached support at 117.930, the May 10 low. The break signals scope for an extension lower and opens 117.370, the May 2 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 119.120, the May 4 high where a break is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 106.271 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.190 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 106.020/106.120 High May 11 / 4
• RES 1: 105.910 High May 16
• PRICE: 105.605 @ 05:35 BST May 18
• SUP 1: 105.575 Low May 17
• SUP 2: 105.475 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 105.350 Low Apr 28
• SUP 4: 105.165 Low Apr 19 / 24 and bear trigger

Schatz futures bullish conditions remain intact, however, a short-term corrective cycle is still in play and the contract traded lower once again yesterday. Price has breached support at 105.705, the May 10 low. The clear break of this level strengthens near-term bearish conditions and signals scope for a deeper retracement towards 105.475 initially, the May 2 low. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at 106.120, the May 4 high.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Key Support At 99.73 Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 102.99 High Apr 14
• RES 3: 102.63 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 101.98/102.46 High May 11 / 3
• RES 1: 101.20 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 100.36 @ Close May 17
• SUP 1: 99.97 Low May 10
• SUP 2: 99.73 Low Apr 19 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 99.55 Low Mar 8
• SUP 4: 99.20 Low Feb 28 and key support

Gilt futures traded lower Wednesday but, for now, price remains above key support at 99.73, Apr 19 low. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on resistance at 102.46 May 3 high, where a break would reinstate a bullish theme. This would signal scope for a climb towards 102.63, a Fibonacci retracement and 102.99, the Apr 14 high. For bears, a break of 99.73 would instead confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Mar 20.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 116.97 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 116.17 76.4% retracement of the Mar 24 - Apr 24 downleg
• RES 1: 115.89 High May 11
• PRICE: 115.03 @ Close May 17
• SUP 1: 113.91 Low May 10
• SUP 2: 113.70 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 112.93/89 Low Apr 24 / 61.8% of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 4: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally

BTP futures remain in a bull cycle and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. The contract recently pierced resistance at 115.84, the May 4 high. A resumption of gains would open 116.17 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would expose 116.97, Apr 6 high, ahead of key resistance at 117.17, the Mar 24 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 113.91, May 10 low. A break would be bearish.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 4520.00 High June 2001 (cont)
• RES 3: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4363.00 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4342.00 @ 06:36 BST May 18
• SUP 1: 4247.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4233.00 Low May 4
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade above support at 4247.40, the 50-day EMA. The broader uptrend is intact and moving average studies remain in a bull mode position. A stronger resumption of gains would signal scope for a test of 4363.00, the Apr 21 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, a clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to signal a top.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Trend Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 4288.00 High Aug 19 2022
• RES 3: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 2: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 1: 4206.25 High May 1 and a key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 4168.25 @ 07:48 BST May 18
• SUP 1: 4062.25 Low May 4 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 4052.50 Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: 4022.75 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - May 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4006.00 Low Mar 29

S&P E-minis traded higher Wednesday. Price remains above the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4112.23. A continuation higher would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 4206.25, the May 1 high. Clearance of this level would confirm an extension of the bull trend that started Mar 13. Key support has been defined at 4062.25, the May 4 low. A move through this level would instead highlight a bearish threat.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N3) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: $85.08 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.88 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $78.99 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $77.60 - High May 10
• PRICE: $76.51@ 06:48 BST May 18
• SUP 1: $73.49/71.28 - Low May 15 / 4
• SUP 2: $70.10 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

Brent futures bounced Wednesday. Price remains below the most recent high of $77.60 (May 10) and below resistance at the 20-day EMA which intersects at $78.99. A clear break of the average is required to strengthen a bullish threat and signal scope for a stronger recovery. For now, the outlook remains bearish. A break of $73.49, May 15 low, would set the scene for an extension towards $781.28, the May 4 low.

WTI TECHS: (M3) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: $81.24 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.18 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.92 - High Apr 28 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $73.93 - Low Apr 28
• PRICE: $72.49 @ 07:10 BST May 18
• SUP 1: $69.41/63.64 - Low May 15 / 4
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021
• SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $57.63 - Low Apr 5 2021

WTI futures traded higher Wednesday. A short-term bearish threat remains present and initial resistance at $73.93, the Apr 28 low, is intact. A resumption of weakness and a break of $69.41, the May 15 low, would strengthen near-term bearish conditions. The recent print below $64.58, the Mar 20 low and a key support, is a medium-term bearish development. A clear break of it would resume the broader downtrend.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: $2100.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 2: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $2022.6/2063.0 - High May 12 / 4 and key resistance
• PRICE: $1977.1 07:13 BST May 18
• SUP 1: $1975.1 - Low May 18
• SUP 2: $1969.3 - Low Apr 19 and key support
• SUP 3: $1934.3 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: $1900.0 - Round number support

Gold remains in a bearish cycle and is trading at its recent lows. Support to watch is $1977.0, the 50-day EMA and $1969.3, the Apr 19 low. A clear break of this support zone is required to highlight a stronger bearish threat. The medium-term trend condition remains bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights an uptrend. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $2063.0, the May 4 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5
• RES 1: $24.492 - Apr 25 low and double top mid-point
• PRICE: $23.655 @ 07:27 BST May 18
• SUP 1: $23.541 - Low May 17
• SUP 2: $23.238 - Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: $22.761 - Low Mar 23
• SUP 4: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

Silver remains bearish, and traded to a fresh short-term low yesterday. Last week’s sell-off confirmed a double top reversal pattern following the break of $24.492, Apr 25 low. The metal has also breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for a move towards $23.238, the Mar 30 low. Initial resistance is seen at $24.492, the double top mid-point. Key resistance has been defined at $26.135, the May 5 high.