MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Extending S/T Reversal Lower

Price Signal Summary – USDJPY Extending S/T Reversal Lower

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the latest move lower appears to be a correction. Price action continues to highlight the fact that corrections are shallow - this is a bullish signal that highlights positive market sentiment. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and yesterday’s fresh cycle high reinforces this theme. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 4939.30 next.
• GBPUSD traded higher again Wednesday and is building on recent gains. Resistance at 1.2775, the Jan 24 high, has been exposed. A clear break would signal scope for a climb towards the key resistance and bull trigger at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high. USDJPY is trading sharply lower this morning as it extends the short-term reversal from 150.89, the Feb 13 high. The pair has breached the 20-day EMA and is testing support at the 50-day EMA - at 148.54. USDCAD conditions remain bullish despite the sharp sell-off yesterday. Key support lies at 1.3359, the Jan 31 low. Clearance of this level would be bearish. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3441, the Feb 22 low.
• Gold remains firm on the back of its latest rally. The yellow metal has traded above resistance at $2135.4, the Dec 4 high to deliver a fresh all-time cycle high. The break reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards $2177.6 next. The WTI futures trend condition remains bullish. Last week’s clearance of key resistance at $79.09, the Jan 29 high, reinforces this theme. The clear break of this hurdle highlights potential for a continuation towards $81.70, a Fibonacci retracement.
• Bund futures are holding on to the bulk of this week’s gains. The contract has pierced 133.27, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for an extension and open 134.18, the Feb 15 high. A clear breach of the 50-day EMA would also potentially highlight a reversal. Gilt futures traded higher Wednesday, extending the recovery from last week’s low. Resistance at 98.53, the Feb 26 high, has recently been cleared. The break eases recent bearish pressure and instead signals scope for a continuation higher near-term.

EURUSD TECHS: Trades Through Resistance

• RES 4: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• RES 3: 1.0969 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 14 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.0932 High Jan 24
• RES 1: 1.0915 High Mar 06
• PRICE: 1.901 @ 05:55 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 108.38 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0796 Low Feb 29
• SUP 3: 1.0762/0695 Low Feb 20 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0656 Low Nov 10

EURUSD traded higher Wednesday and has pierced a key resistance at 1.0888, the Feb 22 high. A confirmed break above it would mark a resumption of the bounce off the YTD low at 1.0695 in February. The break higher also cancels a recent bearish pattern - the shooting star candle on Feb 22. Sights are on 1.0932 , the Jan 24 high. Initial firm support is at 1.0976, the Feb 29 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2775 High Jan 24
• RES 1: 1.2761 High Mar 06
• PRICE: 1.2733 @ 06:06 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 1.2663/00 20-day EMA / Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 1.2519 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 4: 1.2432 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase

GBPUSD traded higher again Wednesday and is building on recent gains. Resistance at 1.2775, the Jan 24 high, has been exposed. A clear break would signal scope for a climb towards the key resistance and bull trigger at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high. For bears, a reversal lower and a breach of 1.2600, the Mar 1 low, is required to once again highlight a bearish threat. This would open the bear trigger at 1.2519, the Feb 5 low.

EURGBP TECHS: MA Studies Remain In A Bear Mode Position

• RES 4: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.8593 High Jan 19
• RES 1: 0.8578 High Feb 20 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 0.8560 @ 06:20 GMT Mar 07
• SUP 1: 0.8528 Low Feb 23
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

EURGBP is consolidating and price remains below key resistance at 0.8578, the Feb 20 high. MA studies continue to highlight a downtrend, however, a break of 0.8578 would signal a possible reversal. The cross has pulled back from its recent highs, a deeper retracement would expose support and the bear trigger at 0.8493, the Aug 23 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the trend and open 0.8454, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 151.91/95 High Nov 13 / High Oct 1 ‘22 and major resistance
• RES 3: 151.43 High Nov 16
• RES 2: 150.89 High Feb 13 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 149.77 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 148.33 @ 06:38 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 147.63 Low Feb 7
• SUP 2: 146.83 38.2% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 145.90 Low Feb 1 and key support
• SUP 4: 145.57 50.0% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bull cycle

USDJPY is trading sharply lower this morning as it extends the short-term reversal from 150.89, the Feb 13 high. The pair has breached the 20-day EMA and is testing support at the 50-day EMA - at 148.54. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bearish corrective cycle and open 147.63, the Feb 7 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is at 149.77, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 165.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 164.30 High Nov 16 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 163.72 High Feb 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 162.96 High Mar 6
• PRICE: 161.72 @ 06:47 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 161.00 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 160.19 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 7 low
• SUP 3: 158.92 Low Feb 7
• SUP 4: 158.08 Low Feb 1 and a key support

The trend condition in EURJPY remains up, however, a corrective cycle remains in play and this suggests potential for a move lower near-term. The cross has traded through the 20-day EMA and this paves the way for a move towards the 50-day EMA - at 161.00. Clearance of this level would open a trendline support at 160.19. The trendline is drawn from the Dec 7 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 163.72, the Feb 26 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
• RES 3: 0.6663 High Jan 16
• RES 2: 0.6625 High Jan 30
• RES 1: 0.6595 High Feb 22 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6588 @ 07:58 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 0.6478/6443 Low Mar 5 / Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
• SUP 3: 0.6360 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10

AUDUSD is trading higher today. The recovery threatens a recent bearish theme and price is trading above the 50-day EMA. For now, the move higher is considered corrective, however, a break of 0.6595, the Feb 22 high, would strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for a continuation higher. This would open 0.6625, the Jan 30 high. On the downside, initial key support has been defined at 0.6478, the Mar 5 low. A break would be bearish.

USDCAD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3606 High Feb 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3505 @ 08:02 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 1.3495 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3441/3359 Low Feb 22 / Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5

USDCAD conditions remain bullish despite the sharp sell-off yesterday. Key support lies at 1.3359, the Jan 31 low. Clearance of this level would be bearish. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3441, the Feb 22 low. The recent print above resistance at 1.3586, the Feb 13 high and bull trigger is a positive development. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.3623 initially, a Fibonacci retracement.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 134.78 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Feb 29 bear cycle
• RES 3: 134.18 High Feb 7
• RES 2: 133.74 High Feb 15
• RES 1: 133.52 High Mar 5
• PRICE: 133.00 @ 05:28 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 132.08 Low Mar 4
• SUP 2: 131.23 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 131.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 129.88 Bear channel base drawn from the Dec 27 high

Bund futures are holding on to the bulk of this week’s gains. The contract has pierced 133.27, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for an extension and open 134.18, the Feb 15 high. A clear breach of the 50-day EMA would also potentially highlight a reversal. Note that a break higher would also result in a bear channel breakout - drawn from the Dec 27 high. On the downside, the bear trigger lies at 131.23 the Feb 29 low.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 119.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 118.790 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 118.560 Low Feb 15 and a gap high on the daily chart
• RES 1: 118.330 High Mar 5
• PRICE: 118.030 @ 05:45 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 117.680 Low Mar 4
• SUP 2: 117.440 Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: 117.200 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 117.000 Round number support

A bearish cycle in Bobl futures remains intact, however, a correction remains in play for now and this signals scope for an extension higher near-term. The contract has pierced resistance at 118.270, the Feb 26 high. A continuation higher would open 118.790, the Feb 15 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at 117.200, the Feb 29 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 106.145 High Feb 15
• RES 3: 106.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 105.985 High Feb 20
• RES 1: 105.850 High Feb 26
• PRICE: 105.715 @ 05:47 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 105.625 Low Mar 4
• SUP 2: 105.490 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 105.375 1.236 proj of the Feb 26 - 29 - Mar 5 price swing
• SUP 4: 105.280 1.50 proj of the Feb 26 - 29 - Mar 5 price swing

The downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle low last week, reinforcing current conditions. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note too that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend. Short-term gains are considered corrective with initial resistance at 105.850, the Feb 26 high. The bear trigger lies at 105.490, the Feb 29 low.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Recovery Intact

• RES 4: 100.16 2.00 retracement of the Feb 26 - 29 bear leg
• RES 3: 100.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 99.77 1.764 retracement of the Feb 26 - 29 bear leg
• RES 1: 99.52 1.618 retracement of the Feb 26 - 29 bear leg
• PRICE: 99.26 @ Close Mar 6
• SUP 1: 98.33/97.91 Low Mar 5 / 4
• SUP 2: 97.42 Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: 96.83 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 96.00 Round number support

Gilt futures traded higher Wednesday, extending the recovery from last week’s low. Resistance at 98.53, the Feb 26 high, has recently been cleared. The break eases recent bearish pressure and instead signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. 99.00 has also been cleared and sights are on 99.52 next, a Fibonacci retracement projection. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 96.83, the Feb 29 low.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Has Cleared Resistance

• RES 4: 120.65 High Dec 27
• RES 3: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 119.54 High Dec 29
• RES 1: 119.32 High Mar 6
• PRICE: 119.01 @ Close Mar 6
• SUP 1: 117.57 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 116.52 Low Feb 29
• SUP 3: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.00 Round number support

BTP futures have traded higher this week resulting in a break of key short-term resistance at 118.81, the Jan 30 high. The clear break of this hurdle highlights a bullish reversal and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. This has opened 119.54, the Dec 29 high, ahead of the 120.00 handle. Key short-term support has been defined at 116.15, the Feb 22 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Heading North

• RES 4: 5015.50 Bull channel top drawn from the Oct 27 low
• RES 3: 4967.50 2.50 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 4939.30 2.382 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 4930.00High Mar 4
• PRICE: 4916.00 @ 06:11 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 4826.80 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4734.00 Low Feb 15
• SUP 3: 4699.70 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4642.90 Bull channel base drawn from the Oct 27 low

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and yesterday’s fresh cycle high reinforces this theme. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 4939.30 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, scope is seen for a climb towards a bull channel top at 5015.40. The channel is drawn from the Oct 27 low. Initial firm support lies at 4828.80, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Trend Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 5193.61 3.0% Bollinger Band
• RES 3: 5172.19 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 5170.86 2.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 5157.75 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 5094.50 @ 07:15 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 5055.56 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4942.66 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4866.00 Low Jan 31 and key support
• SUP 4: 4808.50 Low Jan 19

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the latest move lower appears to be a correction. Price action continues to highlight the fact that corrections are shallow - this is a bullish signal that highlights positive market sentiment. Support to watch is 5055.56, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal potential for a deeper retracement towards 4942.66, the 50-day EMA. Sights are on 5170.86, a Fibonacci projection.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K4) Bullish Trend Structure

• RES 4: $88.31 - High Oct 20
• RES 3: $86.52 - High Oct 27
• RES 2: $85.47 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 15 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: $84.34 - High Mar 1
• PRICE: $82.97 @ 07:02 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: $80.75/76.41 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: $74.84 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 3: $73.22 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $70.80 - Low Jun 23 ‘23

A bullish trend structure in Brent futures remains intact. Sights are on the $83.65 key resistance, the Jan 29 high. It was pierced last Friday. A clear break of this hurdle would cancel a bearish theme and instead signal a resumption of the bull cycle that has been in place since Dec 13. This would open $85.47, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial pivot support to watch lies at $80.75, the 50-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (J4) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $85.75 - High Sep 15 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $84.66 - High Oct 20
• RES 2: $81.70 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 19 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: $80.85 - High Mar 1
• PRICE: $79.14 @ 07:13 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: $76.35/71.49 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: $69.79 - Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: $68.57 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $65.41 - Low Jun 12

The WTI futures trend condition remains bullish. Last week’s clearance of key resistance at $79.09, the Jan 29 high, reinforces this theme. The clear break of this hurdle highlights potential for a continuation towards $81.70, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch is $76.35, the 50-day EMA. A break of the average would instead signal a possible top. The latest pullback is considered corrective.

GOLD TECHS: Fresh All-Time Cycle High Once Again

• RES 4: $2230.1 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2206.6 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2161.5 - High Mar 5
• PRICE: $2155.7 @ 07:19 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: $2123.8/2088.5 - Low Mar 6 / High Dec 28
• SUP 2: $2065.5 - High Feb 1 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: $2058.3/2037.6 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 4: $1984.3 Low Feb 14

Gold remains firm on the back of its latest rally. The yellow metal has traded above resistance at $2135.4, the Dec 4 high to deliver a fresh all-time cycle high. The break reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards $2177.6 next, a Fibonacci projection. Short-term conditions are overbought, however, this does not appear to be a concern for bulls - for now. Initial firm support lies at $2088.5, the Dec 28 high.

SILVER TECHS: Remains Firm

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $24.606 - High Dec 22
• RES 1: $24.305 - High Mar 7
• PRICE: $24.125 @ 08:04 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: $22.037/21.883 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 13 and key support
• SUP 2: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 2023

Silver rallied sharply higher Monday and remains firm. The metal has cleared resistance at $23.534, the Jan 12 high and a reversal trigger. This cancels a recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for a stronger rally above $24.00, towards $24.606, the Dec 22 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $23.037, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would signal a possible reversal.