MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Resumes Bull Cycle

Price Signal Summary – USDJPY Resumes Bull Cycle

• S&P E-Minis are trading lower this week but - for now - price remains above the Jan 5 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 4841.50, the Dec 28 high. A break of this level would resume the uptrend and open 4854.75, a Fibonacci projection. Eurostoxx 50 futures have this week breached support at the Jan 5 low of 4444.0. The primary trend direction is up and the recent move lower is considered corrective. However, the break below 4444.00 and 4450.70, the 50-day EMA.
• GBPUSD traded lower Tuesday but has managed to recover from this week’s lows. The pair has pierced a key short-term support at 1.2611, the Jan 2 low and traded through the 50-day EMA, at 1.2618. USDJPY traded higher again Wednesday as the pair extended the recovery that started Dec 28. This week’s gains have resulted in a break of 146.41, the Jan 11 high, confirming a resumption of the bull cycle. AUDUSD maintains a softer tone following this week’s bearish price action. The pair has breached 0.6646, a trendline support drawn from the late October low. The clear breach of the line strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper correction.
• Gold has pulled back from its most recent highs and the yellow metal traded lower yesterday. The 50-day EMA has been cleared and support at $2013.4, the Jan 11 low, has also been breached. This strengthens a bearish threat and exposes a key level at $1973.2. Trend signals in WTI futures remain bearish and the pullback from last Friday’s high reinforces this theme. Resistance to watch is $74.29, the 50-day EMA. It has recently been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bullish theme.
• Bund futures traded lower yesterday, resuming the bear phase. This strengthens the current downtrend and reinforces the short-term importance of the recent break below the 20-day EMA. Gilt futures gapped lower yesterday and cleared support at 99.60, the Jan 5 low. This reinforces a bearish theme and confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Dec 27. The contract has also traded through support at 97.97, the Dec 6 high.

EURUSD TECHS: Maintains A Softer Tone

• RES 4: 1.1139 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1077 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Jan 5 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 1: 1.0942/98 20-day EMA / High Jan 5
• PRICE: 1.0893 @ 05:38 GMT Jan 18
• SUP 1: 1.0845 Low Jan 17
• SUP 2: 1.0793 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0724 Low Dec 8
• SUP 4: 1.0712 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg

This week’s move lower in EURUSD has resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from the Nov 1 low. The clear break strengthens a bearish threat and signals scope for a continuation of the corrective cycle. Note that key support at 1.0877, the Jan 5 low, has been pierced. A clear breach would further reinforce bearish conditions and open 1.0793, a Fibonacci retracement. Resistance is at 1.0998, Jan 5 high. A break would signal a reversal.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trades Through Support

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2695 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2597 @ 05:59 GMT Jan 18
• SUP 1: 1.2606 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.2525 38.2% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 4: 1.2432 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase

GBPUSD traded lower Tuesday but has managed to recover from this week’s lows. The pair has pierced a key short-term support at 1.2611, the Jan 2 low and traded through the 50-day EMA, at 1.2618. A clear break of both support points would highlight a short-term top and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 1.2500, the Dec 13 low. Key resistance is at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high. Initial resistance is at 1.2695, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20
• RES 3: 0.8715 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 0.8635 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8590 @ 06:16 GMT Jan 18
• SUP 1: 0.8568 Low Jan 17
• SUP 2: 0.8571 Low Dec 15
• SUP 3: 0.8549 Low Dec 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8524 Low Sep 5

A bear threat in EURGBP remains present and yesterday’s move lower reinforces this theme. The break of the 50-day average earlier this month strengthens a bearish theme. This signals scope for a move towards the key support at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low. Key resistance is unchanged at 0.8715, the Dec 28 high. The 50-day EMA, at 0.8635, is the initial firm resistance to watch. A break of the EMA would ease bearish pressure.

USDJPY TECHS: Impulsive Rally Extends

• RES 4: 150.78 High Nov 17
• RES 3: 149.75 High Nov 22
• RES 2: 149.16 76.4% retracement of the Nov 13 - Dec 28 bull leg
• RES 1: 148.52 High Jan 18
• PRICE: 147.82 @ 06:32 GMT Jan 18
• SUP 1: 145.46/144.86 50- and 20-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 144.36 Low Jan 12 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 143.42 Low Jan 9
• SUP 4: 141.86 Low Jan 3

USDJPY traded higher again Wednesday as the pair extended the recovery that started Dec 28. This week’s gains have resulted in a break of 146.41, the Jan 11 high, confirming a resumption of the bull cycle. The move higher opens 149.16 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A key short-term support has been defined at 144.36, the Jan 12 low. Clearance of this level is required to signal a top and highlight a resumption of bearish activity.

EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 163.72 High Nov 27
• RES 3: 162.25 High Nov 29
• RES 2: 161.69 76.4% retracement of the Nov 16 - Dec 7 bear leg
• RES 1: 161.39 Intraday high
• PRICE: 161.19 @ 06:51 GMT Jan 18
• SUP 1: 158.55 Low Jan 12 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: 157.21 Low Jan 9
• SUP 3: 155.08/153.23 Low Jan 02 / Dec 07 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 152.24 3.764 proj of the Nov 16 - 21 - 27 price swing

EURJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat. This week’s rally strengthens a short-term bullish condition and has resulted in a move through resistance at 160.18, the Jan 11 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the current price sequence of higher highs and higher lows - the definition of an uptrend. Sights are on 161.69, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support lies at 158.55, the Jan 12 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
• RES 1: 0.6642 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6555 @ 08:01 GMT Jan 18
• SUP 1: 0.6526 Low Dec 7 and key support
• SUP 2: 0.6500 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
• SUP 3: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
• SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg

AUDUSD maintains a softer tone following this week’s bearish price action. The pair has breached 0.6646, a trendline support drawn from the late October low. The clear breach of the line strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper correction. Attention is on 0.6526, the Dec 7 low and the next key support. On the upside, firm resistance to watch is 0.6729, the Jan 12 high. Initial resistance is at 0.6642, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 3: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3608 High Dec 13
• RES 1: 1.3542 High Jan 17
• PRICE: 1.3493 @ 07:58 GMT Jan 18
• SUP 1: 1.3398/43 2-day EMA / Low Jan 12
• SUP 2: 1.3288/3177 Low Jan 5 / Low Dec 27
• SUP 3: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3055 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD maintains a firmer tone and traded higher yesterday. This week’s rally has resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA, at 1.3458. The break higher confirms an extension of the corrective bull cycle that started Dec 27 last year and opened 1.3538, 50.0% of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg. This level has been pierced, a clear break would open 1.3608, the Dec 13 high. Support to watch is 1.3343, the Jan 12 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 139.39 3.764 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 137.96/138.84 High Jan 4 / High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 136.16 High Jan 5 / 8
• RES 1: 135.65 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 134.25 @ 05:14 GMT Jan 18
• SUP 1: 134.15 Low Jan 17
• SUP 2: 133.42 Low Dec 4
• SUP 3: 132.89 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase
• SUP 4: 132.29 Low Nov 30

Bund futures traded lower yesterday, resuming the bear phase. This strengthens the current downtrend and reinforces the short-term importance of the recent break below the 20-day EMA. Note that a key support at the Dec 8 low of 134.37, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would open 133.42, the Dec 4 low. Initial resistance is at 135.65, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average is required to ease bearish pressure.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Trades Through Support

• RES 4: 120.130 High Mar 24 (cont)
• RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 119.640/830 High Jan 4 / High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 118.372/640 20-day EMA / High Aug 8
• PRICE: 117.620 @ 05:39 GMT Jan 18
• SUP 1: 117.550 Low Jan 18
• SUP 2: 117.510 Low Dec 4
• SUP 3: 117.060 Low Dec 1
• SUP 4: 117.000 Round number support

A bearish corrective cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and this week’s move lower reinforces a bear theme. Yesterday’s sell-off resulted in a break of support at 117.800, the Dec 8 low. This highlights potential for a deeper pullback, exposing 117.510, the Dec 4 low, Note that the 50-day EMA has also been cleared. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 119.830, the Dec 27 high. Initial resistance to watch is 118.640, the Aug 8 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 106.774 1.618 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 3: 106.698 1.50 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 2: 106.640 High Dec 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 106.270/360 High Jan 5 and 12 / Low Jan 3
• PRICE: 105.900 @ 05:549 GMT Jan 18
• SUP 1: 105.870 Low Jan 17
• SUP 2: 105.780 Low Dec 1
• SUP 3: 105.730 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 105.660 High Nov 17

A bear threat in Schatz futures remains present. Key short-term support at 105.955, the Dec 13 low, has been cleared. This strengthens the current bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 105.780 next, the Dec 1 low. On the upside, initial key resistance is at 106.270, the Jan 5 / 12 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would ease bearish pressure and signal a reversal.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 103.33 High Dec 29
• RES 3: 101.98 High Jan 3
• RES 2: 100.35 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 99.71 Low Jan 16 and gap high on the daily chart
• PRICE: 98.33 @ Close Jan 17
• SUP 1: 98.00 Low Jan 17
• SUP 2: 97.39 Low Dec 11 and a key support
• SUP 3: 96.67 Low Dec 5
• SUP 4: 96.10 Low Nov 30

Gilt futures gapped lower yesterday and cleared support at 99.60, the Jan 5 low. This reinforces a bearish theme and confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Dec 27. The contract has also traded through support at 97.97, the Dec 6 high signalling scope for an extension towards 97.39, the Dec 11 low. On the upside, firm resistance to watch is at 100.35, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would ease bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 122.63 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 122.18 3.00 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 121.43 2.764 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 119.23/77 High Jan 12 / 4
• PRICE: 117.27 @ Close Jan 17
• SUP 1: 117.12 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 116.46 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 115.18 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 114.10 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull cycle

BTP futures have traded lower this week and a bearish corrective cycle remains in play. Price has recently traded below the 20-day EMA and today’s move lower has delivered a print below support at 117.24, the Jan 5 low. This opens the 50-day EMA at 116.46 - the next key support. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 119.23, the Jan 12 high. A reversal higher and a break of this level would highlight a base.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Has Traded Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4662.90 1.236 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 4636.70 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2009 downleg (cont)
• RES 2: 4599.00/4634.00 High Jan 2 / High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4536.00 High Jan 11
• PRICE: 4423.00 @ 06:10 GMT Jan 18
• SUP 1: 4402.00 Low Jan 17
• SUP 2: 4370.00 Low Nov 28
• SUP 3: 4334.00 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 - Dec 14 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4220.00 Low Nov 10

Eurostoxx 50 futures have this week breached support at the Jan 5 low of 4444.0. The primary trend direction is up and the recent move lower is considered corrective. However, the break below 4444.00 and 4450.70, the 50-day EMA, suggests scope for an extension of the current bear cycle. This has opened 4370.00, the Nov 28 low. Initial resistance is 4536.00, the Jan 11 high. A break would highlight a potential reversal.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Watching Support

• RES 4: 4915.11 1.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4900.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4854.75 1.00 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 4841.50 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4771.00 @ 07:02 GMT Jan 18
• SUP 1: 4702.00 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 4687.54 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4594.00 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 4550.75 Low Nov 16

S&P E-Minis are trading lower this week but - for now - price remains above the Jan 5 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 4841.50, the Dec 28 high. A break of this level would resume the uptrend and open 4854.75, a Fibonacci projection. Support at the 20-day EMA of 4773.33 has been pierced. A clear break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish threat and open the 50-day EMA, at 4687.54.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H4) Resistance Still Intact

• RES 4: $86.50 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $84.22 - High Nov 30
• RES 1: $80.75/81.45 - High Jan 12 / High Dec 26 and key resistance
• PRICE: $78.38 @ 06:57 GMT Jan 18
• SUP 1: $74.79 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: $72.67/71.21 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: $69.25 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $67.84 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing

Brent futures continue to trade below last Friday’s high and price remains below key short-term resistance at $81.45, the Dec 26 high. The outlook is bearish and moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. This suggests that the Dec 13 - 26 recovery was likely a correction. Attention is on $72.67, the Dec 13 low and bear trigger. For bulls, clearance of $81.45 is required to signal a stronger reversal.

WTI TECHS: (G4) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $84.18 - High Oct 24
• RES 3: $82.64 - High Nov 3
• RES 2: $79.67 - High Nov 30 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $74.29/76.18 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 26 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $73.21 @ 07:15 GMT Jan 18
• SUP 1: $69.28 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: $67.98 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $65.24 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 4: $63.79 - 2.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 6 - Oct 20 price swing

Trend signals in WTI futures remain bearish and the pullback from last Friday’s high reinforces this theme. Resistance to watch is $74.29, the 50-day EMA. It has recently been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bullish theme and expose $76.18, the Dec 26 high. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position and continue to highlight a downtrend. The trigger for a resumption of the downtrend is $67.98, Dec 13 low.

GOLD TECHS: Clears Support

• RES 4: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 3: $2097.1 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 2: $2062.3/2088.5 - High Jan 12 / High Dec 28
• RES 1: $2035.3 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $2012.3 @ 07:19 GMT Jan 18
• SUP 1: $2001.9 - Low Jan 17
• SUP 2: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold has pulled back from its most recent highs and the yellow metal traded lower yesterday. The 50-day EMA has been cleared and support at $2013.4, the Jan 11 low, has also been breached. This strengthens a bearish threat and exposes a key level at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low. For bulls, clearance of 2062.3, the Jan 12 high, is required to signal a reversal. This would expose $2088.5, the Dec 28 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $24.606/994 - High Dec 22 / 76.4% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $23.433 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $22.622 @ 08:07 GMT Jan 18
• SUP 1: $22.476 - Low Jan 11
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Recent weakness in Silver has resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from the Oct 5 low. This highlights a bearish threat and exposes key support at $22.510, Dec 13 low. This level was pierced last week, a clear break of it would open $21.883, Nov 13 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance is at $24.606, the Dec 22 high. A move above this hurdle would reinstate a bullish theme.