MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Shows Below Trendline

Tech Focus: USDJPY Breaks Trendline Support

- USDJPY weakness extended through a pivot support at 107.77, the trendline drawn off the Jan 6 low, on Friday.
- The break strengthens the current bearish case and although the pullback is still considered a correction, further downside is likely near-term.
- Price is also through the 38.2% retracement of the Jan - Mar rally, this opens 106.78, the 50.0% level.
- Resistance is at 108.84, the 20-day EMA.
- Support levels to watch:
* SUP 1: 106.97 Low Mar 4
* SUP 2: 106.78 50.0% retracement of the Jan - Mar rally
* SUP 3: 106.37 Low Mar 1

Price Signal Summary - Monitoring The S&P E-Minis Directional Triggers
In the equity space, S&P E-minis key directional triggers remain intact. They are; support at 4110.50, Apr 21 low and resistance at 4183.50, Apr 16 high.
In the FX world, EUR/USD remains firm despite printing a gravestone doji on Tuesday last week. The pair is now approaching bear channel resistance having taken out 1.2080. This opens 1.2116/22, 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Mar 31 sell-off and the bear channel top drawn off the Jan 6 high. Key support to watch is 1.1943, Apr 19 low. GBP/USD remains below recent highs of 1.4009 and close to the former bear channel base drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low. A bearish risk dominates while 1.4009 remains intact. Support to watch is at 1.3810, Apr 19 low. USD/JPY is sitting on key support at 107.77, a trendline support drawn off the Jan 6 low. This represents a key short-term pivot level.
On the commodity front, Gold maintains a bullish tone. The focus is on $1805.7, Feb 25 high. Brent (M1) remains below Tuesday's high of $68.08. Key support to watch is $63.31, the 50-day EMA. WTI (M1) found resistance this week at $64.38, Tuesday's high. The 50-day EMA at $59.99 is seen as a firm intraday support.
In the FI space, Bunds (M1) have tested the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would open 171.62, Apr 14 high. Support to watch in Gilts (M1) remains 127.81, Apr 14 low. The key resistance is at 129.27, Mar 2 high and the reversal trigger.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching Bear Channel Resistance

• RES 4: 1.2285 High Jan 8
• RES 3: 1.2241/43 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Feb 25
• RES 2: 1.2184 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 1.2119 Bear channel top drawn off the Jan 6 high
• PRICE: 1.2087 @ 19:23 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 1.1994/43 Low Apr 22 / Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 1.1861 Low Apr 7 and 8
• SUP 3: 1.1795 Low Apr 6
• SUP 4: 1.1738 Low Apr 5

EURUSD bulls returned Friday and in the process the pair traded above resistance at 1.2080. The move higher negates a bearish pattern on Apr 20 - a gravestone doji. Instead, the climb reinstates a bullish outlook and attention is on the resistance zone at 1.2116/19, 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Mar 31 sell-off and a bear channel top drawn off the Jan 6 high. A break of the channel resistance would be bullish. Support has been defined at 1.1994.

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Below Last Week's Highs

• RES 4: 1.4123 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4103 76.4% retracement of the Feb 24 - Apr 12 downleg
• RES 2: 1.4009/17 High Apr 20 / High Mar 4
• RES 1: 1.3950 High Apr 22
• PRICE: 1.3901@ 06:12 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 1.3824 Low Apr 22 and key intraday support
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3670/69 Low Mar 25 / Low Apr 12 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

GBPUSD traded lower last week following a failure at 1.4009, Apr 20 high. This pullback means that recent gains stalled at the former bull channel base drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low. A break of 1.4009 is required to reinstate a bullish theme that would open 1.4103, a Fibonacci retracement. Short-term support has been defined at 1.3824, Apr 22 low. The key bear trigger lies at 1.3669, Apr 12 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Key Resistance Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8840 High Feb 4
• RES 3: 0.8791/8837 High Feb 12 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 0.8721 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.8710 @ 06:21 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 0.8635 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 0.8589 Low Apr 19
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8430/8397 Low Feb 27, 2020 / 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band

EURGBP ended the week on a firmer note reversing bearish concerns following the recent pullback from 0.8719, Apr 16 high. The strong gains Thursday and Friday expose resistance at 0.8719. This level has been probed, a clear break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 4 and open 0.8731, Feb 26 high and 0.8762, a retracement level. Key support has been defined at 0.8589, Apr 19 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Trendline Support Under Pressure

• RES 4: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 110.55 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 109.96 High Apr 9
• RES 1: 108.75 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 107.73 @ 06:24 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 107.48 Low Apr 23
• SUP 2: 106.97 Low Mar 4
• SUP 3: 106.78 50.0% retracement of the Jan - Mar rally
• SUP 4: 106.37 Low Mar 1

USDJPY weakness extended once again Friday and the pair traded below pivot support at 107.77, the trendline drawn off the Jan 6 low. The breach strengthens the current bearish case and although the move lower is considered a correction, further downside appears likely. Price has also traded below 38.2% retracement of the Jan - Mar rally, this opens 106.78, the 50.0% level. Resistance is at 108.75, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Remains Below Key Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 132.36 1.382 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 3: 131.58 High Oct 4, 2018
• RES 2: 131.22 1.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 1: 130.97 High Apr 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 130.43 @ 06:31 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 129.57 Low Apr 8
• SUP 2: 129.43/29 Trendline drawn off Oct 30 low / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 128.29 Low Mar 24
• SUP 4: 127.50 Low Feb 22

EURJPY remains below 130.97. Apr 20 high despite ending last week on a firmer note. Attention is on the Apr 20 bearish price pattern - a shooting star candle and initial support is at 129.57, Apr 8 low. A clear break lower would expose the 50-day EMA at 129.29 and a trendline support at 129.43, drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. Clearance of this zone would signal a reversal. For bulls, a break of 130.97 negates bearish concerns and resumes the uptrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Eyeing Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7895 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 2: 0.7849 High Mar 18 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 0.7816 High Apr 20
• PRICE: 0.7774 @ 06:38 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 0.7691 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 0.7586 Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: 0.7532/17 Low Apr 1 and the bear trigger / Low Dec 22

AUDUSD is firmer but still trading within its recent range. A recent climb resulted in a break of trendline resistance drawn off the Feb 25 high and price is back above the neckline of a recent head and shoulders reversal. A pullback if seen, would expose support at 0.7635, Apr 14 low where a break would reverse the current bullish cycle. Key resistance and the bull trigger remains 0.7816, Apr 20 high. A break would open 0.7849, Mar 18 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Trades Through Support

• RES 4: 1.2749 High Feb 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2700 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 1.2653 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2541 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2461 @ 06:47 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 1.2433 76.4% retracement of the Mar 18 - Apr 21 rally
• SUP 2: 1.2404 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.2365 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2251 Low Jan 31 2018

USDCAD is softer. The pair has traded below 1.2460, Apr 21 low, extending the pullback from last week's high of 1.2653 on Apr 21. The move lower paves the way for weakness towards 1.2433, 76.4% of the rally between Mar 18 - Apr 21. A break of this level would open 1.2365, Mar 18 low and the bear trigger. Initial resistance is at 1.2541, the 20-day EMA. For bulls, clearance of 1.2653 is needed to signal a bullish reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Resistance Defined At 171.27

• RES 4: 172.34 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 172.12 High Apr 8 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 171.62 High Apr 14
• RES 1: 171.18/27 20-day EMA / High Apr 22
• PRICE: 170.64 @ 05:11 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 170.05 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 2: 170.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 169.24 Low Feb 24 and major support
• SUP 4: 168.96 0.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing

Bund futures have defined a short term resistance at 171.27, Apr 22 high and just above the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would strengthen a short-term bullish theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 171.62, Apr 14 high. The recent focus has been on the potential for a move lower. Price needs to trade through the 170.05 Fibonacci retracement to resume bearish pressure.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) 20-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 135.440 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 135.350 High Apr 8 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.180 High Apr 14
• RES 1: 135.025/050 20-day EMA / High Apr 22
• PRICE: 134.870 @ 05:16 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 134.800 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 134.660 Low Apr 20 and intraday bear trigger
• SUP 3: 134.446 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 4: 134.140 Low Feb 26 and key support

Bobl futures remain above last week's lows. The contract tested its 20-day EMA on Apr 22. Clearance of this average, at 135.025, would strengthen a short-term bullish theme and pave the way for strength towards 135.180, Apr 14 high. A key short-term support has been defined at 134.660, Apr 20 low. A break is required to reinstate the recent bearish focus and the current downward cycle that started Mar 25.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Remains Below Last Week's Highs

• RES 4: 112.174 0.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 3: 112.165 High Mar 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 112.150 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 112.120 High Apr 22
• PRICE: 112.095 @ 05:27 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 112.060 Low Mar 10 and Apr 20
• SUP 2: 112.053 50.0% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 3: 112.026 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 4: 111.993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Schatz futures recovered last week from 112.060, Apr 20 low. The 20-day EMA was probed too and a clear break is needed to strengthen a short-term bullish theme. This would signal scope for gains towards 112.150, Apr 8 high. 112.060 marks the key near-term support. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate the recent bearish focus. This would open 112.053, a Fibonacci retracement.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Key Resistance Zone Remains Intact

• RES 4: 130.38 High Feb 17 and 18
• RES 3: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 2: 129.27 High Mar 2 and the reversal trigger
• RES 1: 129.09 High Apr 23
• PRICE: 128.61 @ Close Apr 23
• SUP 1: 128.26/27.81 Low Apr 19 / Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: 127.32 Low Apr 1
• SUP 3: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)

Gilt futures traded higher Friday before pulling back. The downtrend remains intact and S/T gains are still considered corrective. The contract though is trading close to a host of key resistance levels defined by 128.93, Mar 25 high and 129.27, Mar 2 high. The former level has been probed but a clear breach of this zone is required to signal a base and a stronger reversal. Support and the near-term bear trigger is unchanged at 127.81, Apr 14 low.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Bearish Conditions Dominate

• RES 4: 150.39 High Mar 11 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 149.88 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 149.47 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 148.58/65 20-day EMA / High Apr 22
• PRICE: 147.97 @ Close Apr 23
• SUP 1: 147.54 Low Apr 20
• SUP 2: 146.84 Low Feb 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 146.16 Low Sep 21, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 145.56 Low Sep 15, 2020 (cont)

BTP futures maintain a bearish tone. The break on Apr 13 of support at 148.36, Mar 18 low reinforces a bearish theme paving the way for weakness towards 147.56, Mar 5 low. This level was probed last week and a clear break would expose the key support and bear trigger at 146.84, Feb 26 low. MA studies are in a bear mode reinforcing a bearish theme. Initial resistance is seen at 148.65, Apr 22 high and just above the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 Techs: Recent Highs Remain Intact

• RES 4: 4150.66 High Jan 17, 2008
• RES 3: 4110.24 High Jan 18, 2008
• RES 2: 4047.72 2.236 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 1: 4040.88 High Apr 19
• PRICE: 4013.34 @ Close Apr 23
• SUP 1: 3935.83 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 3910.90 Low Mar 31
• SUP 3: 3850.42 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3841.46 Low Mar 26

EUROSTOXX 50 gains found resistance last week and a sharp sell-off dominated the Apr 20 session. The trend condition is overbought and a short-term corrective pullback would allow the overbought reading to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been tested. A clear break would signal scope for a deeper sell-off and expose the 50-day EMA at 3836.79. For bulls, the trend remains up. A break of 4040.88, Apr 19 high would resume the uptrend.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M1) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: $71.75 - High Jan 8 2020
• RES 3: $70.67 - High Mar 8 and the key bull trigger
• RES 2: $69.50 - High Mar 15
• RES 1: $66.52/68.08 - High Apr 21 / High Apr 20
• PRICE: $65.51 @ 06:52 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: $64.58/63.42 - Low Apr 22 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $62.41 - Low Apr 12
• SUP 3: $61.25 - Low Apr 5
• SUP 4: $60.33 - Low Mar 23 and a key support

Brent crude futures last week found resistance at $68.08, Apr 20 high. A recent bullish focus is on hold following the pullback from this high. Price Thursday probed the 20-day EMA, a clear break of the average signal scope for a deeper pullback towards the 50-day EMA at $63.42. For bulls, clearance of $68.08 is required to reinstate a bullish focus and instead signal scope for a climb towards $69.50, Mar 15 high.

WTI TECHS: (M1) Remains Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: $67.29 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $66.15 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $65.50- Former trendline support drawn off Nov 2, 2020 low
• RES 1: $62.56/64.38 - High Apr 21 / High Apr 20
• PRICE: $61.48 @ 06:59 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: $60.61 - Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: $60.08 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $58.77 - Low Apr 12
• SUP 4: $57.68 - Low Apr 5

WTI futures last week found resistance at $64.38, Apr 20 high. A recent bullish focus is on hold following the pullback from this high. Price probed the 20-day EMA Thursday. A clear break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback towards the 50-day EMA at $60.08. For bulls, clearance of the Apr 20 high would reinstate a bullish focus and instead signal scope for a climb towards $66.15, Mar 15 high.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Conditions Intact

• RES 4: $1818.1 - 50.0% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off
• RES 3: $1816.0 - High Feb 23
• RES 2: $1805.7 - High Feb 25
• RES 1: $1797.9 - High Apr 22
• PRICE: $1779.3 @ 07:13 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: $1762.1 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1721.4 - Low Apr 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $1705.9 - Low Apr 1
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger

The Gold outlook remains bullish and is trading closer to recent highs. The yellow metal recently cleared resistance at $1758.8, Apr 8 high and remains above the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, the recent break higher confirmed a double bottom reversal that had formed since the Mar 8 low. Attention is on $1805.7, Feb 25 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $1721.4, Apr 5 low. Initial support is at $1762.1.

SILVER TECHS: Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: $28.328 - High Feb 23
• RES 3: $27.686 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 1 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 2: $26.941 - 50.0% retracement of the Feb 1 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 1: $26.645 - High Apr 21
• PRICE: $25.969 @ 07:16 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: $25.636 - Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: $24.686 - Low Apr 13 and a key support handle
• SUP 4: $23.781 - Low Mar 31

Silver short-term bullish conditions remain intact following recent gains. The break higher on Apr 21 resulted in a probe of resistance at $26.636, Mar 18 high and a key near-term hurdle for bulls. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bullish case and open $26.941, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at $24.686, Apr 13 low. Initial support is at $25.636.