MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Trades Through Pivot Support

Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Trades Through Pivot Support

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain below key short-term resistance at 4099.00, May 9 high. The contract remains vulnerable following a fresh trend low last Friday. Attention is on 3801.97, 38.2% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 bull leg (cont). 3807.50, Friday’s low is the bear trigger. A break of resistance at 4099.00 is required to signal a base. The primary trend direction in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is down. A corrective cycle is still in play however following the recovery from 3466.00, May 10 low. Price last week probed the 50-day EMA, today at 3723.80. A clear break of this average would improve a short-term bullish theme. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger is at 3466.00.
• In FX, EURUSD has this week cleared the 20-day EMA, and 1.0642, the May 5 high. An extension higher would signal scope for a climb towards 1.0840, the base of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. Initial support is at 1.0533, May 20 low. GBPUSD maintains a firmer short-term tone following this weeks climb above , 1.2525, May 19 high and the 20-day EMA at 1.2503. This opens 1.2638, the May 4 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support lies at 1.2438, May 20 low. USDJPY has traded through support at 126.95, Apr 27 low and an important short-term pivot level. The breach suggests scope for a continuation lower. Current weakness is still considered a correction though and is allowing a recent overbought trend reading to unwind. Attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 125.89.
• On the commodity front, Gold has traded above resistance at $1859.7, the 20-day EMA. This opens the 50-day EMA at $1884.5. The latest move higher is still considered corrective and the trend direction remains down. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on last week’s $1787.0 low (May 16). In the Oil space, WTI futures maintain a firm tone. The contract last week breached resistance at $110.07, Mar 24 high. A resumption of gains would open $116.43, the Mar 7 trend high. Initial support is at $103.24, the May 19 low.
• In the FI space, Bund futures resistance is at $155.33 May 12 high. The trend direction remains down and an extension lower would open 150.49, the May 9 and the bear trigger. The broader trend condition in Gilts remains down. The contract has recently found resistance at 121.07, May 12 high. The bear trigger is unchanged at 116.87, May 9 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Remains Firm Inside Its Bear Channel

• RES 4: 1.0936 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 1.0840 Bear channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 2: 1.0800 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 1.0758 Low Apr 14 and a recent breakout level
• PRICE: 1.0706 @ 06:12 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 1.0533 Low May 20
• SUP 2: 1.0461/350 Low May 18 and19 / Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0333 1.236 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing

EURUSD traded higher again Tuesday. The pair has cleared resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 1.0570, and is through a key resistance at 1.0642, the May 5 high. This strengthens the current bull cycle that started at 1.0350, May 13 low. Note that the latest recovery also started from the base of a bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top intersects at 1.0840 and is a potential objective. Initial support is at 1.0533, May 20 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Maintains A Firmer Tone

• RES 4: 1.2800 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.2772 High Apr 26
• RES 2: 1.2751 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2638 High May 4 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.2540 @ 06:20 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 1.2438 Low May 20
• SUP 2: 1.2317/2156 Low May 17 / Low May 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2081 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jun ‘21 uptrend
• SUP 4: 1.2000 psychological round number

GBPUSD maintains a firmer tone and Monday traded above last week’s high of 1.2525 and the 20-day EMA at 1.2503. The clear break of this average signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery and opens 1.2638, the May 4 high and a key resistance. On the downside key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 1.2156, the May 13 low. Initial firm support lies at 1.2317, the May 17 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Strong Rally

• RES 4: 0.8658 High Sep 29 2021
• RES 3: 0.8643 High Sep 30 2021
• RES 2: 0.8619 High May 12 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8587 High May 24
• PRICE: 0.8538 @ 06:23 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 0.8475/8433 20-day EMA / Low May 23
• SUP 2: 0.8393/ 0.8391 Low May 17 / 61.8% of Apr 14 - May 12 upleg
• SUP 3: 0.8367 Low May 2 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8337 76.4% retracement of the Apr 14 - May 12 upleg

EURGBP rallied Tuesday and cleared initial resistance at 0.8534, May 16 high. The strong gains and break of resistance reinstates a short-term bullish theme and attention turns to resistance at 0.8619, the May 12 high and the next key hurdle for bulls. Clearance of this level would resume a 3.5 month uptrend. On the downside, initial support lies at 0.8475, the 20-day EMA and Monday’s intraday low of 0.8433.

USDJPY TECHS: Breaches Pivot Support

• RES 4: 132.39 High Apr 15 2002
• RES 3: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 129.78/131.35 High May 17 / High May 9 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 128.32 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 126.99 @ 06:27 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 126.36 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 125.89 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 125.09 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 124.01 Low Apr 11

The USDJPY corrective pullback resumed Tuesday. The pair has traded through support at 126.95, Apr 27 low. This level represents an important short-term pivot level and the breach suggests scope for a continuation lower. Current weakness is still considered a correction and is allowing a recent overbought trend reading to unwind. Attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 125.89. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 129.78, May 17 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 140.87 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 2: 138.32/140.00 High May 9 / High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 136.80 High May 23
• PRICE: 136.00 @ 06:36 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 133.75/132.66 Low May 16 / Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 132.71 100-dma
• SUP 3: 132.20 50% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 21 bull phase
• SUP 4: 131.59 Low Mar 22

EURJPY challenged resistance at 136.75 on Monday, the May 12 high, but has since pulled back. 132.66, the May 12 low has been defined as a key S/T support. The recent recovery still threatens a previous bearish theme. An extension higher would open 138.32, the May 9 high and an important short-term resistance. On the downside, clearance of 132.66 would be a bearish development. This would open 132.20, a Fibonacci retracement.

AUDUSD TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 0.7343 61.8% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.7266 High May 4/5 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.7175 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7135 High May 6
• PRICE: 0.7102 @ 06:43 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 0.7002 Low May 20
• SUP 2: 0.6950/29 Low May 18 / Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6784 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 2 - 4 price swing

AUDUSD is trading near its recent highs and maintains a firmer short-term tone. Resistance at 0.7054, May 11 high, has been cleared. A continuation higher would strengthen the current bull cycle and open the 50-day EMA at 0.7175. Gains are still considered corrective and the primary direction remains down. The bear trigger is unchanged at 0.6829, the May 12 low. Initial firm support to watch is at 0.6950, the May 18 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 1.3134 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.3091 High Nov 24 2020
• RES 2: 1.3077 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2896/2982 High May 18 / High May 16
• PRICE: 1.2832 @ 06:50 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 1.2765 Low May 24 and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2714 Low May 5 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2568 Low Apr 22
• SUP 4: 1.2459 Low Apr 21

USDCAD continues to trade closer to its recent lows, but did find support on Tuesday. The latest move down is considered corrective and the broader trend outlook remains bullish. Recent gains resulted in a breach of 1.2914, May 2 high, and 1.2964, the Dec 20 2021 high. The break of the latter marks an important medium-term bullish development. Key support to watch is at 1.2714, May 5 low. A break would alter the short-term outlook.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 157.87 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 156.09 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 156.00 High Apr 28 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 155.33 High May 12
• PRICE: 153.52 @ 05:07 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 151.89/150.49 Low May 18 / Low May 9
• SUP 2: 150.15 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 150.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 149.49 Low Jul 13 2015 (cont)

Bund futures continue to consolidate and trade below recent highs. The trend direction is unchanged though and remains down. Recent fresh cycle lows maintain the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs - the definition of a downtrend. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 150.49, the bear trigger. Firm trend resistance is unchanged at 156.00.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) 50-Day EMA Still Intact

• RES 4: 129.770 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 129.350 High Apr 4 and a reversal point
• RES 2: 128.380 High May 12
• RES 1: 128.324 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 127.290 @ 05:16 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 126.610/126.010 Low May 18 / Low May 6 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 125.450 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 125.260 Low Apr 24 20014 (cont)

Bobl futures are unchanged and remain in consolidation mode. Price, on May 12, probed resistance at 128.310, the Apr 14/28 high. A resumption of strength and a clear breach of 128.310 would leave the 50-day EMA at 128.324 exposed. A clear breach of the average would suggest scope for a stronger corrective cycle. The primary trend remains down, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 126.010.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 111.095 50.0% retracement of the Mar 7 - May 6 downleg
• RES 3: 111.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 110.855 High Apr 4
• RES 1: 110.609/110.690 50-day EMA / High May 13
• PRICE: 110.300 @ 05:30 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 109.980 Low May 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 109.777 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 109.555 Low Oct 31 2011 (cont)
• SUP 4: 109.340 Low Oct 28 011 (cont)

Schatz futures are unchanged. The primary trend direction remains down, and following the pullback from 110.690, May 13 high, the recent bullish corrective cycle appears to be over. A continuation lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 109.980, May 6 low, where a break would resume the downtrend. The 50-day EMA, at 110.609, remains intact and this indicator represents an important resistance.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Primary Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 122.72 High Mar 18
• RES 3: 122.35 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 121.84 50.0% retracement of the Mar 1 - May 9 bear leg
• RES 1: 119.95/121.07 High May 19 / High May 12
• PRICE: 119.12 @ Close May 24
• SUP 1: 117.91 Low May 23
• SUP 2: 116.87 Low May 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 116.35 Low Dec 30 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.40 1.00 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing

Gilt futures traded higher Tuesday. The primary trend direction remains down though. The pullback from recent highs just above the 50-day EMA is a bearish development. This suggests the correction between May 9 - 12 is over. Attention is on the key support and bear trigger at 116.87, May 9 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 121.07, May 12 high, where a break is required to reinstate a short-term bullish bullish theme.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Key Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 135.23 High Apr 14
• RES 3: 133.53 High Apr 28
• RES 2: 132.97 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 131.24 High May 12
• PRICE: 128.46 @ Close May 24
• SUP 1: 127.24/125.54 Low May 11 and 24 / Low May 9
• SUP 2: 125.02 1.236 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 124.02 Low Mar 18 2020 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 123.41 1.382 proj of the of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing

The primary trend condition in BTP futures remains bearish. A corrective (bullish) cycle has recently been established though and the contract did on May 12, manage to trade above a trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 1 high. Price has since pulled back, however a resumption of strength would signal scope for a move towards 133.53, Apr 28 high. Key support is at 125.54, May 9 low. A break of this level would resume the downtrend.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 3883.00 High Apr 21
• RES 2: 3775.00 High May 5
• RES 1: 3723.80/3745.00 50-day EMA / High May 18
• PRICE: 3678.00 @ 05:52 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 3576.00/3466.00 Low May 19 / Low May 10 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3458.90 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 3: 3400.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3309.00 Low Mar 7 and a major support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are consolidating. The primary trend direction is down but a corrective cycle remains in play, following the recovery from 3466.00, May 10 low. Price last week challenged the 50-day EMA, at 3723.80 today, which has so far capped gains. A clear breach of the EMA would improve a short-term bullish theme and open 3775.00, the May 5 high. Key support and the bear trigger to watch is at 3466.00, May 10 low.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 4509.00 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 4393.25 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 4303.50 High Apr 26/28 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4099.00/4206.55 High May 9 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3959.75 @ 06:46 BST May 25
• SUP 1: 3807.50 Low May 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3801.97 38.2% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 bull leg (cont)
• SUP 3: 3787.74 2.618 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 3747.52 2.764 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing

S&P E-Minis are trading above recent lows, but remain vulnerable. This follows the reversal from 4095.00, May 18 high. The pullback has left key resistance at 4099.00, the May 9 high, intact. The reversal lower, and last Friday’s trend low, signals a resumption of the downtrend and opens 3801.97 next, 38.2% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 bull leg (cont). Clearance of 4099.00 is required to ease the bearish threat and signal a potential short-term base.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N2) Remains Below Resistance

• RES 4: $123.44 - High Mar 8
• RES 3: $121.13 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $115.76 - High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $115.69 - High May 17
• PRICE: $114.29 @ 07:06 BST May 25
• SUP 1: $105.70/101.30 - Low May 13 / Low May 11
• SUP 2: $99.25 - Low Apr 25 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: $97.18 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: $92.59 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger

Brent futures are holding on to recent gains but remain below the May 17 high of $115.69. S/T conditions are bullish. The contract last week breached resistance at $114.00, May 5 high. This highlights potential for an extension higher and opens $115.76, the Mar 24 high and a bull trigger. A break would open the $120.00 handle. On the downside, key support is unchanged at $101.30, the May 11 low. Initial firm support is seen at $105.70, May 19 low.

WTI TECHS: (N2) Eyeing Resistance

• RES 4: $120.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $116.43 - High Mar 7 and the trend high
• RES 2: $115.04 - High Mar 8
• RES 1: $113.20 - High May 17
• PRICE: $110.56 @ 07:05 BST May 25
• SUP 1: $103.24 - Low May 19
• SUP 2: $102.00/96.93 - 50-day EMA / Low May 11 and key S/T level
• SUP 3: $94.47 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 4: $92.15 - Low Apr 11 and a key support

WTI futures continue to trade closer to recent highs and maintain a bullish S/T tone. Price has recently breached resistance at $109.77, May 5 high and this improved the outlook for bulls. Note that $110.07, the Mar 24 high has also been cleared. A resumption would signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at $116.43, the Mar 7 trend high. Key short-term support lies at $96.93, May 11 low, where a break would instead signal a potential top.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $1919.9 - High Apr 29 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 2: $1884.5 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1869.7 - High May 24
• PRICE: $1858.6 @ 07:11 BST May 25
• SUP 1: $1807.5/1787.0 - Low May 18 / Low May 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021
• SUP 4: $1749.3 - 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Gold maintains a firmer short-term tone and is trading closer to its recent highs. The yellow metal has traded above resistance at $1859.7, the 20-day EMA. This suggests potential for a strong short-term correction and has opened the 50-day EMA at $1884.5. The move higher is still considered corrective though and the trend direction is down. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on last week’s $1787.0 low (May 16).

SILVER TECHS: Resistance At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
• RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• RES 2: $23.169 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $22.240 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $21.953 @ 07:18 BST May 25
• SUP 1: $20.464 - Low May 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

The Silver outlook remains bearish despite the bounce from $20.464, May 13 low. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at $22.008, Feb 3 low and a bear trigger. The move lower reinforced the bearish theme and has resulted in a breach of $21.427/423, the Dec 15 2021 low and Sep 29 2021 low. Sights are on $20.000 next. Firm short-term resistance to watch is at $22.240 the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a stronger recovery.