MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Trend Needle Still Points North

Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Trend Needle Still Points North

• S&P E-Minis are trading above last week’s lows however the outlook remains bearish. Recent weakness resulted in a break of 3810.00, May 20 low and a bear trigger. The clear break confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs and the focus is on 3600.00 next. The EUROSTOXX 50 futures primary trend direction remains down and recent gains are considered corrective. The move lower last week resulted in a breach of key support at 3456.00, May 10 low.
• USDJPY broke to new cycle highs Tuesday, with price clearing short-term resistance at 135.59, Jun 15 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. AUDUSD remains above 0.6851, the Jun 14 low but is trading lower today. Recent gains are considered corrective and the outlook is bearish. GBPUSD is unchanged and continues to trade above last week’s low of 1.1934 on Jun 14. Recent gains are still considered corrective and the primary trend direction is down.
• Gold remains vulnerable short-term, despite the latest recovery. The yellow metal has recently failed to remain above the 50-day EMA and this highlights a bearish threat and signals the potential end of the recent correction between May 16 - Jun 13. WTI futures are trading on a softer note. The contract has cleared support at the 50-day EMA and this strengthens the current bearish theme, signalling scope for a continuation lower.
• Bund futures are unchanged and remain in consolidation mode. The trend outlook is bearish and the consolidation is likely a pause in the downtrend. Gilt futures outlook remains bearish and the contract traded lower yesterday. Last week’s cycle low again confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.0852 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 1.0787 High May 30 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 1.0671/0774 Bear channel top from Feb 10 high / High Jun 9
• RES 1: 1.0601 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 1.0495 @ 06:06 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 1.0445/0359 Low Jun 17 and 15
• SUP 2: 1.0350 Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0233 1.382 proj of Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 Price swing

EURUSD remains above last week’s lows and recent gains are still considered corrective. A bearish threat remains present. The recent reversal lower from the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high, highlights a bearish condition. The channel top intersects at 1.0662 and marks a key short-term resistance. Attention is on 1.0350, May 13 low and the bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is unchanged at 1.0601, Jun 16 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 1.2549 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.2518 High Jun 10
• RES 1: 1.2406 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 1.2232 @ 06:11 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 1.2173/2042 Low Jun 17 and 16
• SUP 2: 1.1934 Low Jun 14 and High Mar 20 2020
• SUP 3: 1.1795 0.764 proj of the Mar 23 - May 13 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1777 Low Mar 26 2020

GBPUSD is unchanged and continues to trade above last week’s low of 1.1934 on Jun 14. Recent gains are still considered corrective and the primary trend direction is down. A move lower would refocus attention on 1.1934 that also marks the short-term bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.1795, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2406, Jun 16 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Signals Point North

• RES 4: 0.8852 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Mar ‘22 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Jun 15
• RES 1: 0.8634 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8582 @ 06:17 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 0.8512 Low Jun 16
• SUP 2: 0.8499 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8433 Low May 23
• SUP 4: 0.8393 Low May 17 and a key support

EURGBP is trading in a tight range. Recent weakness is considered corrective and the outlook is bullish. The recent breach of resistance at 0.8619, May 12 high, confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Moving average studies continue to point north too, highlighting a bullish outlook. The focus is on a retest of 0.8721, the Jun 15 high and bull trigger. A break would resume the uptrend. Firm support is seen at 0.8499, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bull Trend Extends

• RES 4: 139.07 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 4 low
• RES 3: 138.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 137.30 1.50 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 136.88 High Oct 30 1998
• PRICE: 136.23 @ 06:36 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 134.54 Low Jun 20
• SUP 2: 132.70/131.50 20-day EMA / Low Jun 16 and key support
• SUP 3: 130.43 Low Jun Low Jun 6
• SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support

USDJPY broke to new cycle highs Tuesday, with price clearing short-term resistance at 135.59, Jun 15 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 136.88 next, the Oct 30 1998 high. A bull channel is also evident on the daily chart - drawn from the Mar 4 low. The top, at 139.07, is a near-term objective too. Key short-term support is at 131.50.

EURJPY TECHS: Attention Is On The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 146.74 High Dec 30, 2014
• RES 3: 145.00/58 Round number resistance / High Dec 31 2014
• RES 2: 144.58 0.764 proj of Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 swing
• RES 1: 144.25 High Jun 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 142.99 @ 06:41 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 140.26 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 138.06/37.85 50-day EMA and key support / Low Jun 16
• SUP 3: 136.25 Low May 30
• SUP 4: 134.99 Low May 25

EURJPY traded higher Tuesday, as the cross extended the recovery from last week’s low of 137.85 (Jun 16 low). Attention is on the bull trigger at 144.25, Jun 8 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and open the 145.00 handle. Moving average studies remain in bull mode, clearly highlighting current bullish sentiment. Key pivot support has been defined at 137.85, Jun 16 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.7343 61.8% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.7283 High Jun 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.7119 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7069 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 0.6914 @ 06:57 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 0.6898/6851 Low ju 17 and Jun 14
• SUP 2: 0.6829 Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD remains above 0.6851, the Jun 14 low but is trading lower today. Recent gains are considered corrective and the outlook is bearish. A stronger resumption of weakness would signal scope for a test of key support and the bear trigger at 0.6829, the May 12 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6805, the Jun 22 2020 low. On the upside, 0.7069, Jun 16 high is a key short-term resistance.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Outlook Is Bullish

• RES 4: 1.3338 38.2% of the 2020 - 2021 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3192 1.00 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3113 High Nov 23 2020
• RES 1: 1.3079 High May 17 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2969 @ 07:05 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 1.2861 Low Jun 16
• SUP 2: 1.2826 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2776 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2681 Low Jun 10

The USDCAD outlook is bullish. The pair traded cleared 1.3000 last week and the rally resulted in a print above key resistance at 1.3077, the May 16 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of 1.3077 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for strength towards 1.3113, the Nov 23 2020 high. Initial firm support is at 1.2826, the 20-day EMA. Short-term pullbacks are considered corrective.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 148.51 High Jun 10
• RES 3: 147.56 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 147.19 High Jun 13
• RES 1: 145.58 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 143.65 @ 05:08 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 142.56/140.67 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 140.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 138.68 Low Jan 2 2014 (cont)
• SUP 4: 138.33 3.00 proj of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing

Bund futures are unchanged and remain in consolidation mode. The trend outlook is bearish and the consolidation is likely a pause in the downtrend. Recent cycle lows have confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintained a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too. The focus is on the 140.00 psychological level. Firm resistance is at 147.56, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 124.490 High Jun 3
• RES 3: 124.190 High Jun 9
• RES 2: 123.052 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 122.390 High Jun 15
• PRICE: 121.250 @ 05:12 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 120.760/119.940 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 119.590 4.00 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 119.050 Low Jul 29 2011 (cont)
• SUP 4: 118.420 Low Jul 27 2011

The primary downtrend in Bobl futures remains intact and fresh cycle lows last week reinforce bearish conditions. The current consolidation is likely a pause in the downtrend - a bear flag. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode, highlighting current market sentiment. The focus is on 119.590 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 123.052, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Consolidation Appears To Be A Bear Flag

• RES 4: 109.180 High Jun 3 and 9
• RES 3: 108.715 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 108.677 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 108.460 High Jun 15
• PRICE: 108.145 @ 05:16 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 107.885/107.705 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 107.662 3.50 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 107.589 3.618 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 107.430 Low Jul 4 2011 (cont)

Schatz futures are consolidating but remain in a downtrend. This pause appears to be a bear flag formation - a pattern that reinforces bearish conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too highlighting current trend conditions. This suggests scope for a continuation of the downtrend and the focus is on 107.662 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 108.677, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 115.55 High Jun 6
• RES 3: 114.28 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 113.93 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 112.37/113.25 High Jun 20 and 15
• PRICE: 110.78 @ Close Jun 21
• SUP 1: 110.57 Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: 109.89/60 Low Jun 16 / 4.50 proj of May 19 - 24 - 26 swing
• SUP 3: 109.33 Low Jul 8 2014 (cont)
• SUP 4: 108.98 Low Jul 7 2014 (cont)

Gilt futures outlook remains bearish and the contract traded lower yesterday. Last week’s cycle low again confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. The move lower last week also highlighted an acceleration of the downtrend and moving average studies remain in a bear mode, reinforcing current trend conditions. The focus is on 109.60 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 113.25, Jun 15 high.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Remains ABove Recent Lows

• RES 4: 127.79 High May 26
• RES 3: 125.11 High Jun1
• RES 2: 123.88 Low May 9 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 120.97/98 High Jun 17 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 118.82 @ Close Jun 22
• SUP 1: 115.72/113.78 Low Jun 16 / Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 113.22 3.764 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 112.31 4.00 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 110.83 4.382 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing

BTP futures continue to trade above recent lows. The primary trend condition is bearish and the recent recovery is likely a correction. A bearish theme was reinforced early last week as price traded lower, confirming an extension of the downtrend. This maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of weakness would open 113.78, Jun 14 low and the bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is at 120.98, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 3902.00 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 3840.00 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 3659.80 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3567.00 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 3433.00 @ 05:42 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 3384.00 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3300.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 3241.70 1.382 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 3189.10 1.50 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing

The EUROSTOXX 50 futures primary trend direction remains down and recent gains are considered corrective. The move lower last week resulted in a breach of key support at 3456.00, May 10 low. This has reinforced bearish conditions and signals potential for weakness towards 3300.00. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode condition, highlighting current trend conditions. Initial firm resistance is seen at 3659.80, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Bearish Trend Conditions Intact

• RES 4: 4396.75 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 4308.50 High Apr 28
• RES 2: 4069.81/4204.75 50-day EMA / High May 31
• RES 1: 3843.00/3918.03 High Jun 15 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 3722.50 @ 07:00 BST June 22
• SUP 1: 3639.00 Low Jun 17
• SUP 2: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 3500.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3384.75 0.764 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis are trading above last week’s lows however the outlook remains bearish. Recent weakness resulted in a break of 3810.00, May 20 low and a bear trigger. The clear break confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs and the focus is on 3600.00 next. Firm resistance is seen at 3918.03, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q2) Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $125.04 - 1.618 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: $125.19 - High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $121.25 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $116.25 - High Jun 21
• PRICE: $110.78 @ 07:07 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: $108.28 - Low May 20
• SUP 2: $103.84 - Low May 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: $100.14 - Low May 11
• SUP 4: $98.32 - Low Apr 25

Brent futures have traded lower today and in the process have cleared support at the 50-day EMA. The break lower strengthens the current bearish threat and signals potential for an extension lower with the focus on $108.28, the May 20 low. A break of this support would open $103.84, the May 19 low and a key support. On the upside, initial support is seen at $116.25, yesterday’s high.

WTI TECHS: (Q2) Retracement Extends

• RES 4: $122.68- 1.50 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 3: $120.88 - High Jun 14 and key resistance
• RES 2: $116.58 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $112.55 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $104.96 @ 07:16 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: $100.66 - Low May 19
• SUP 2: $99.36 - Low May 12
• SUP 3: $95.47 - Low May 11
• SUP 4: $93.45 - Low Apr 25

WTI futures are trading on a softer note. The contract has cleared support at the 50-day EMA and this strengthens the current bearish theme, signalling scope for a continuation lower. The break lower has opened $100.66, the May 19 low. A breach of this level would pave the way for a move towards $95.47, the May 11 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at $116.58, the Jun 17 high. A break would ease the bearish threat.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 3: $1881.6 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 2: $1878.4 - High Jun 13
• RES 1: $1862.4 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1825.1 @ 07:55 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: $1805.2 - Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: $1787.0 - Low May 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021

Gold remains vulnerable short-term, despite the latest recovery. The yellow metal has recently failed to remain above the 50-day EMA and this highlights a bearish threat and signals the potential end of the recent correction between May 16 - Jun 13. An extension lower would open the key support and bear trigger at $1787.0, May 16 low. A break would resume the downtrend. Key trendline resistance is at $1881.6.

SILVER TECHS: Remains Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
• RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• RES 2: $23.278 - High May 5
• RES 1: $22.412/517 - 50-day EMA / High Jun 6
• PRICE: $21.317 @ 07:58 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: $20.896/20.464 - Low Jun 13 / Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Silver remains below its recent highs and the short-term outlook is bearish. The metal recently tested levels above resistance at $22.446, May 27 high. A clear break of this level is still required to suggest scope for an extension higher and would also highlight a breach of the 50-day EMA at $22.412. For bears, a stronger resumption of weakness would signal potential for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $20.464, May 13 low.