MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Uptrend Firmly Intact

Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Uptrend Firmly Intact

• The S&P E-Minis short-term condition remains bearish despite yesterday’s gains - a corrective bounce. The contract recently traded through its 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4447.32, and this has reinforced a bearish threat. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are unchanged and remain in consolidation mode. The contract still appears vulnerable though. Recent weakness resulted in a move below the 20- and 50-day EMAs and support at 3735.00, the Mar 18 low, has been breached.
• USDJPY continues to defy gravity and has once again delivered a fresh trend high today, of 129.40. The uptrend remains firmly intact and short-term pullbacks would be considered corrective. EURUSD remains above its recent low of 1.0758 on Apr 14. The trend outlook remains bearish. Last week’s cycle lows confirmed a resumption of the trend, resulting in a break of the bear trigger at 1.0806, Mar 7 low. AUDUSD remains vulnerable near-term following the recent pullback from 0.7661, Apr 5 high. Short-term gains are for now being viewed as a corrective pullback.
• Gold has failed to hold onto recent highs. The pullback from $1998.4, the Apr 18 high, has resulted in a move below the 20-day EMA and attention turns to the 50-day EMA at $1925.2. WTI futures maintain a bullish tone despite yesterday's sell-off. A positive outlook follows the recent recovery from $92.93, the Apr 11 low. The contract has also recently found support at levels near the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $98.82 today.
• Bund futures continue to trade lower this week, confirming again a resumption of the primary downtrend. The move lower has also confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish and yesterday’s resumption of bearish activity confirmed a continuation of the downtrend. The move lower also maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 1.1076 High Apr 1
• RES 3: 1.1033 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0989 High Apr 5
• RES 1: 1.0831/0909 High Apr 15 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0819 @ 05:58 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 1.0758 Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0659 0.764 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.0636 Low March 23 2020

EURUSD remains above its recent low of 1.0758 on Apr 14. The trend outlook remains bearish. Last week’s cycle lows confirmed a resumption of the trend, resulting in a break of the bear trigger at 1.0806, Mar 7 low. This puts prices at the lowest levels since mid-2020. Attention is on 1.0727, Apr 24 2020 low and the key 1.0636 level, Mar 23 2020 low. For bulls, clearance of 1.1185 is needed to highlight a base. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0909.

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Above Its Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 1.3355 High Mar 4
• RES 3: 1.3298 High Mar 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3200 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3087/3147 20-day EMA / High Apr 14
• PRICE: 1.3034 @ 06:04 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 1.2974 Low Apr 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2954 1.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933 Low Nov 5 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

GBPUSD traded lower Tuesday, extending the pullback from its recent high of 1.3147, Apr 14 high. The pair remains above support and bear trigger at 1.2974, Apr 13 low. The outlook is bearish though. Recent weakness means the pair failed to remain above the 20-day EMA - a bearish development. A break of 1.2974 would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.2933, the Nov 5 2020 low. Key short-term resistance is at 1.3147.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.8512 High Mar 31
• RES 3: 0.8480 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8405/8435 High Apr 11 / High Apr 4
• RES 1: 0.8336/58 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8298 @ 06:15 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8151 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8117 High Apr 7 2016

A bearish cycle in EURGBP remains intact and the move lower on Apr 14 reinforced this condition. The cross has traded below 0.8296, Mar 23 low, as well as 0.8276, 76.4% of the Mar 7 - 31 rally. This opens losses toward 0.8203, Mar 7 low and the next bear trigger. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 0.8405, Apr 11 high. A break would represent a short-term bullish development. Initial resistance however is seen at 0.8336, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Another Cycle High

• RES 4: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 130.43 High Apr 24 2002
• RES 2: 130.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 129.44 0.764 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• PRICE: 128.61 @ 06:27 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 128.06/26.98 Intraday low / Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 125.87 Low Apr 15
• SUP 3: 125.09 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 124.08 20-day EMA

USDJPY continues to defy gravity and has once again delivered a fresh trend high today, of 129.40. The uptrend remains firmly intact and short-term pullbacks would be considered corrective. Recent activity reinforces underlying bullish conditions and signals potential for a continuation of the bull cycle, with the focus on 129.44 next, a Fibonacci projection, ahead of the psychological 130.00 handle. A firm support is seen at 125.09.

EURJPY TECHS: Eyeing The 140.00 Handle

• RES 4: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 140.93 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 8 price swing
• RES 2: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 139.69 Intraday high
• PRICE: 139.18 @ 06:39 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 137.53/36.87 High Mar 28 / Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 135.33/134.36 20-day EMA / Low Apr 8 and a key support
• SUP 3: 133.94 Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: 133.11 50-day EMA

EURJPY has traded higher today, reaching 139.69 and delivering another fresh cycle high. The recent break of key short-term resistance at 137.50/53, the Feb 2 2018 and Mar 28 highs respectively, confirms a resumption of the current bull leg that started Mar 7. The move higher also confirms the end of the recent corrective phase. The focus is on 140.00 next. Key S/T trend support has been defined at 134.36, Apr 8 low. Initial support is at 137.53.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 0.7661 High Apr 5 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7593 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 0.7519 High Apr 7
• RES 1: 0.7493 Apr 12 high and key intraday resistance
• PRICE: 0.7429 @ 06:45 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 0.7344/43 50-DMA / Low Apr 18
• SUP 2: 0.7282 76.4% retracement of the Mar 15 - Apr 5 climb
• SUP 3: 0.7283 Low Mar 17
• SUP 4: 0.7181 Low Mar 16

AUDUSD remains vulnerable near-term following the recent pullback from 0.7661, Apr 5 high. Short-term gains are for now being viewed as a corrective pullback. The pair has recently traded below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, reinforcing bearish conditions and this signals scope for an extension lower. The focus is on 0.7282, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, resistance to watch is at 0.7493, Apr 12 high. A break would alter the picture.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 1.2783 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 5 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2711 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 5 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2699 High Mar 17
• RES 1: 1.2646/76 High Apr 19 / High Apr 13 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2585 @ 06:54 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 1.2522 Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: 1.2479 Low Apr 6
• SUP 3: 1.2460/2403 1.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Apr 5
• SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10 2021

USDCAD remains below last week's high of 1.2676 (Apr 13). The recent move lower does threaten a bullish theme and highlights the fact that price has so far failed to remain above the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 1.2624 today. Note that the Apr 13 session appears to be a bearish engulfing candle. If correct, it highlights a reversal. The focus is on 1.2522, Apr 14 low. On the upside, clearance of 1.2676 would be bullish.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 160.52 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 160.31 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 159.79 High Apr 4 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 156.17/157.47 High Apr 14 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 153.65 @ 04:50 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 153.00 Round number support
• SUP 2: 152.65 Low Sep 1 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 151.99 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 150.15 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing

Bunds futures continue to trade lower this week, confirming again a resumption of the primary downtrend. The move lower has also confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too. The focus is on 153.00 next ahead of 152.65, the Sep 1 2015 low (cont). Initial resistance is at 156.17, Apr 14 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 130.160 High Mar 23
• RES 3: 130.083 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 129.350 High Apr 4 and a key trend resistance
• RES 1: 128.310/671 High Apr 8 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 127.430 @ 04:57 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 127.120 Low Apr 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.940 0.382 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 126.480 Low Jun 5 2014 (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.196 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing

Bobl futures remain in a clear downtrend. A fresh cycle low on Apr 12 confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. The move lower maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving averages continue to point south. The focus is on a move towards 126.940, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term trend resistance has been defined at 129.350, the Apr 4 high. Initial resistance is at 128.310.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 111.355 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 111.170 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 110.855 High Apr 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 110.744 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 110.500 @ 05:05 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 110.295 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 110.188 0.382 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 110.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 109.983 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing

Recent Schatz futures gains are considered corrective and trend conditions remain bearish. The Apr 12 cycle low of 110.295 confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The move lower paves the way for weakness towards 110.188 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance is unchanged at 110.855, the Apr 4 high.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 122.35 High Apr 4 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 121.88 High Apr 5
• RES 2: 120.11/96 20-day EMA / High Apr 6
• RES 1: 118.54 High Apr 19
• PRICE: 117.72 @ Close Apr 19
• SUP 1: 117.53 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 117.04 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 116.35 Low Dec 30 2015
• SUP 4: 115.40 1.00 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing

The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish and yesterday’s resumption of bearish activity confirmed a continuation of the downtrend. The move lower also maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and moving average studies continue to point south. The focus is on 117.04 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, the 20-day EMA at 120.11, is seen as a firm short-term resistance.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Fresh Cycle Lows

• RES 4: 139.23 High Mar 23
• RES 3: 138.68 High Mar 31 and key resistance
• RES 2: 136.14/137.74 20-day EMA / High Apr 5
• RES 1: 135.23 High Apr 14
• PRICE: 132.54 @ Close Apr 19
• SUP 1: 132.35 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 132.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 131.85 0.618 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.24 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing

BTP futures traded lower yesterday, extending its downtrend and the recent breach of support at 135.69, Mar 29 low. The move lower has also confirmed a continuation of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs - the definition of a downtrend. Moving averages remain in a bear mode too. The focus is on 131.85 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm trend resistance is unchanged at 138.68, the Mar 31 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Consolidating

• RES 4: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 3: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 3944.00 High Mar 29and a key resistance
• RES 1: 3888.00 High Apr 5
• PRICE: 3775.00 @ 05:09 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 3684.00 Low Apr 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3626.50 50.0% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 3: 3551.60 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 4: 3523.00 Low Mar 11

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are unchanged and remain in consolidation mode. The contract still appears vulnerable though. Recent weakness resulted in a move below the 20- and 50-day EMAs and support at 3735.00, the Mar 18 low, has been breached. This highlights a bearish threat. An extension lower would open 3626.50, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 3944.00, the Mar 29 high.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Bearish Trend Conditions Remain Intact

• RES 4: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 3: 4631.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4519.75/4588.75 High Apr 8 / High Apr 5
• RES 1: 4467.00 High Apr 19
• PRICE: 4441.75 @ 06:49 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 4355.50 Low Apr 18
• SUP 2: 4321.07 61.8% retracement of the Mar 15 - Mar 29 rally
• SUP 3: 4247.89 76.4% retracement of the Mar 15 - Mar 29 rally
• SUP 4: 4129.50 Low Mar 15

The S&P E-Minis short-term condition remains bearish despite yesterday’s gains - a corrective bounce. The contract recently traded through its 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4447.32, and this has reinforced a bearish threat. The move below 4400.00 signals scope for weakness towards 4321.07 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been established at 4519.75, the Apr 8 high A break would ease the bearish threat.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M2) Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $128.04 - High Mar 8
• RES 3: $125.40 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 2: $119.74 - High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $114.84 - High Apr 18
• PRICE: $108.10 @ 06:59 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: $106.69 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $102.15/97.57 - 50-day EMA / Low Apr 11
• SUP 3: $94.61 - Low Mar 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: $90.58 - Low Feb 25

The short-term outlook for Brent futures remains positive despite yesterday’s retracement. A break of 114.84, Apr 18 high, would resume the recent recovery and open resistance at $119.74, the Mar 24 high. The contract has recently recovered from just below the 50-day EMA - a bullish development - which intersects at $102.15 today. For bears, a clear break of this EMA would suggest scope for a deeper decline and open $94.61, the Mar 16 low.

WTI TECHS: (K2) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $122.73 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $116.64/118.34 - High Mar 24 / 76.4% of Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $112.93 - High Mar 28
• RES 1: $109.81 - High Apr 18
• PRICE: $103.02 @ 07:04 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: $98.82 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $92.93 - Low Apr 11 and a key support
• SUP 3: $92.20 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $88.49 - Low Feb 25

WTI futures maintain a bullish tone despite yesterday's sell-off. A positive outlook follows the recent recovery from $92.93, the Apr 11 low. The contract has also recently found support at levels near the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $98.82 today. A resumption of strength would open $116.64, the Mar 24 high and a key near-term resistance. Key support has been defined at $92.93. A break would reinstate a bearish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Reversal

• RES 4: $2059.2 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $2007.9 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 2: $2001.6 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 1: $1998.4 - High Apr 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1940.5 @ 07:17 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: $1925.2/1915.5 - 50-day EMA / Low Apr 6
• SUP 2: $1890.2 - Low Mar 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally

Gold has failed to hold onto recent highs. The pullback from $1998.4, the Apr 18 high, has resulted in a move below the 20-day EMA and attention turns to the 50-day EMA at $1925.2. A break of this EMA would suggest scope for a deeper pullback and expose $1915.5, Apr 6 low and the key support at $1890.2, the Mar 29 low. Clearance of $1998.4 would reinstate a bullish theme.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Threat

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $26.943 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $26.222 - High Apr 18 and a key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $24.951 @ 08:07 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: $24.767/23.974 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 29 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 3: $23.173 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $23.082 - Low Feb 15

Silver has reversed lower from its recent high of $26.222, the Apr 18 high. The move threatens the recent bullish theme and attention turns to support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $24.767. Clearance of this EMA would suggest scope for a deeper pullback and open the key support at $23.974, the Mar 29 low. On the upside, clearance of $26.222 would reinstate a bullish theme.