MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WTI Remains Vulnerable, S/T Gains Considered Corrective

Price Signal Summary – WTI Remains Vulnerable, S/T Gains Considered Corrective

• S&P E-Minis have continued to climb as the contract extends the recovery from 3839.25, Mar 13 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is the 50-day EMA at 4025.43. The average was breached yesterday and a clear break would strengthen a short-term bullish theme and signal scope for a climb towards 4119.50. The Eurostoxx 50 futures outlook remains bearish, however, the strong recovery from Monday’s low of 4057.00 has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation higher would signal scope for 4184.50, a Fibonacci retracement.
• GBPUSD on Monday cleared resistance at 1.2204, the Mar 14 high. This has strengthened the case for bulls and note too that resistance at 1.2269 has been pierced, the Feb 14 high. The next resistance to watch is 1.2296, a Fibonacci retracement. The current downtrend in USDJPY remains intact. Price traded lower Monday, reinforcing current conditions. 131.31, 61.8% retracement of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally, has been cleared. The breach strengthens bearish conditions and sets the scene for a move towards 129.75, the 76.4% retracement. The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish despite the recent recovery - a shallow correction that still appears to be a bear flag. The Mar 7 sell-off reinforced a bearish theme.
• A strong rally in Gold last week saw the yellow metal trade to a fresh YTD high of $1989.4. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started in late September 2022. Monday’s gains resulted in a print above the psychological $2000 handle and this further strengthens bullish conditions. WTI futures remain vulnerable and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. The contract traded to a fresh low Monday. Last week’s sell-off resulted in the break of key support at $71.10, the Dec 9 low.
• Bund futures traded lower Tuesday as price extends the reversal from Monday’s high of 140.30. For now, the retracement is considered corrective and is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Gilt futures remain above support at 103.12, the Mar 15 low. The outlook is bullish - for now - and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Potential is seen for a climb towards the 108.00 handle. The contract traded higher last Friday and again Monday to reinforce bullish conditions.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Recovery Extends

• RES 4: 1.1033 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0911 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.0836 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0803 High Feb 14 and key resistance
• PRICE: 1.0771 @ 05:38 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 1.0657/1.0516 50-day EMA / Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 1.0484 Low Jan 6 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.0476 Trendline support drawn from the Sep 28 2022 low
• SUP 4: 1.0394 Low Dec 1

EURUSD traded higher again Tuesday and the pair has moved above resistance at 1.0760, the Mar 15 high. The clear break of this level strengthens the current bull theme and signals scope for gains towards 1.0803 next, the Feb 14 high. On the downside, key short-term support is unchanged at 1.0516, the Mar 15 low, where a break is required to reinstate the recent bearish theme.

GBPUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.2448 High Jan 23 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 3: 1.2401 High Feb 2
• RES 2: 1.2296 76.4% retracement of the Jan 23 - Mar 8 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2285 High Mar 20
• PRICE: 1.2232 @ 05:52 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 1.2161 Low Mar 20
• SUP 2: 1.2086/2011 50-day EMA / Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.1908 Low Mar 10
• SUP 4: 1.1894 200-dma

GBPUSD on Monday cleared resistance at 1.2204, the Mar 14 high. This has strengthened the case for bulls and note too that resistance at 1.2269 has been pierced, the Feb 14 high. The next resistance to watch is 1.2296, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open 1.2448, the Jan 23 high. On the downside, key short-term support is at 1.2011, the Mar 15 low. A break of this level is required to reinstate the recent bearish theme.

EURGBP TECHS: Defies Bear Threat Backdrop

• RES 4: 0.8929 High Feb 17
• RES 3: 0.8925 High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8898 Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high
• RES 1: 0.8844 High Mar 15
• PRICE: 0.8809 @ 06:16 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 2: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.8691 Low Dec 19
• SUP 4: 0.8649 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg

EURGBP defied bearish short-term signals Tuesday and has recovered from its recent lows. The near-term outlook is bearish and attention is on support at 0.8722, the Jan 19 low. It has recently been pierced, a clear break would leave the 0.8700 handle exposed and signal scope for a continuation lower. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 0.8844, Mar 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would ease bearish pressure and open 0.8898, a trendline resistance.

USDJPY TECHS: Current Bear Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: 137.91 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 136.99 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 1: 132.78/133.94 Intraday high / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 132.41 @ 06:38 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 130.54 Low Mar 20
• SUP 2: 129.75 76.4% retracement of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: 128.09 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and key support

The current downtrend in USDJPY remains intact. Price traded lower Monday, reinforcing current conditions. 131.31, 61.8% retracement of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally, has been cleared. The breach strengthens bearish conditions and sets the scene for a move towards 129.75, the 76.4% retracement. Firm resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA. The average intersects at 133.94 where a break is required to ease bearish pressure.

EURJPY TECHS: Rebound Extends

• RES 4: 145.57 High Mar a2 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 144.96 High Mar 15
• RES 2: 143.98 76.4% retracement of the recent Mar 2 - 20 bear cycle
• RES 1: 143.04 Intraday high
• PRICE: 142.53 @ 06:47 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 140.42/138.83 Low Mar 21 / 20
• SUP 2: 138.40 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 137.92 Low Jan 19
• SUP 4: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and a key support

EURJPY traded higher Tuesday as the cross extended the recovery from Monday’s low of 138.83. This low represents a key short-term support where a break is required to reinstate the recent bearish threat. A move lower would open 137.39, the Jan 3 low and a key support. For bulls, a continuation higher would expose 143.98, the 76.4% retracement of the recent Mar 2 - 20 bear cycle.

AUDUSD TECHS: Shallow Correction

• RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
• RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 2: 0.676/84 50-day EMA / High Mar 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6748 High Mar 7
• PRICE: 0.6694 @ 08:02 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 0.6590/47 Low Mar 15 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 2: 0.6500 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.6425 2.00 projection of the Feb 2 - 6 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish despite the recent recovery - a shallow correction that still appears to be a bear flag. The Mar 7 sell-off reinforced a bearish theme. The break lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and price has breached 0.6629, the Dec 20 low. This signals potential for weakness towards 0.6547, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is at 0.6784, the Mar 1 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 1.3977 High Oct 13
• RES 2: 1.3898 High Oct 14
• RES 1: 1.3814/3862 High Mar 15 / 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3708 @ 07:59 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 1.3644 Low Mar 21
• SUP 2: 1.3578 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3515 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21

The recent move lower in USDCAD appears to be a correction and this move has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains through 1.3800 strengthened a bullish theme. Price has cleared the Dec 16 high of 1.3705 and scope is seen for gains towards 1.3977, the Oct 13 high. Initial support is seen at 1.3644, the Mar 21 low. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.3862, the Mar 10 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 141.06 High Dec 14 (cont)
• RES 3: 140.73 High Jan 19 (cont)
• RES 2: 139.00/140.30 Round number resistance / High Mar 20
• RES 1: 137.15/138.42 50.0% of Tuesday’s sell-off / High Mar 21
• PRICE: 135.58 @ 07:54 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 134.78 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 134.15 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 133.33 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 132.70 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally

Bund futures traded lower Tuesday as price extends the reversal from Monday’s high of 140.30. For now, the retracement is considered corrective and is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. The next key support lies at 134.78, the 20-day EMA. A break of the 20-day EMA would highlight a stronger reversal. Initial resistance is at 138.42, Tuesday’s intraday high.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Retracement Mode

• RES 4: 121.290 High Dec 2 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 121.090 High Dec 8 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 120.00/120.610 Round number resistance / High Mar 20
• RES 1: 118.735 50.0% retracement of Tuesday’s range
• PRICE: 117.980 @ 05:11 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 117.510 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 117.259 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 116.982 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 116.370 Low Mar 15

Bobl futures traded lower Tuesday as the contract retraces recent gains and extends the pullback from Monday’s high of 120.610. The next key pivot support lies at the 20-day EMA that intersects at 117.259. A clear break of the EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. On the upside, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 120.610, the Mar 21 high and bull trigger.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 107.170 High Dec 2 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 107.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 106.955 High Mar 20
• RES 1: 106.170/106.530 50.0% of Tuesday’s range / High Mar 21
• PRICE: 105.855 @ 05:29 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 105.760 Low Mar 17
• SUP 2: 105.575 Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: 105.486 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 105.336 61.8% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally

Schatz futures traded lower Tuesday as the pullback from Monday’s high of 106.955 extends. Attention is on support at 105.760, the Mar 17 low and 105.486, the 20-day EMA. The average marks a key short-term support where a break is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. For now, the recent move lower is considered corrective. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at 106.955, the Mar 20 high.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 108.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 107.78 High Feb 2 and a key resistance (cont)
• RES 2: 106.00/107.33 Round number resistance / High Mar 20
• RES 1: 105.22 High Mar 21
• PRICE: 104.85 @ Close Mar 21
• SUP 1: 104.12 Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 103.26 50.0% retracement of the entire rally from Feb 28
• SUP 3: 103.11 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 102.40 Low Mar 13

Gilt futures remain above support at 103.12, the Mar 15 low. The outlook is bullish - for now - and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Potential is seen for a climb towards the 108.00 handle. The contract traded higher last Friday and again Monday to reinforce bullish conditions. Firm support is seen at the 20-day EMA, where a break would strengthen any developing bearish threat. The average intersects at 103.11.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Short-Term Trend Outlook Remains Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 118.97 Low Nov 30 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 118.56 High Jan 19 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 2: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 1: 117.16 High Mar 20 / 21
• PRICE: 115.38 @ Close Mar 21
• SUP 1: 114.69/113.98 Low Feb 15 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 113.02 High Mar 9 and a gap low
• SUP 3: 111.79 Low Mar 9
• SUP 4: 110.79 Low Mar 7

BTP futures Have pulled back from this week’s 117.16 high. The short-term outlook remains bullish and pullbacks are considered corrective. A resumption of gains would open 118.18 next, the Jan 19 high on the continuation chart and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 113.02, the Mar 9 high and a gap low on the daily chart. Initial firm support is seen at 113.98, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Rebound From Monday’s Low Extends

• RES 4: 4268.00 High Mar 6 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4240.00 High Mar 9
• RES 2: 4184.50 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 bear leg
• RES 1: 4148.00 High Mar 21
• PRICE: 4135.00 @ 05:38 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 4069.00/3914.00 Low Mar 21 / Low Mar 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3865.00 Low Jan 4
• SUP 3: 3800.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3750.00 Low Dec 30

The Eurostoxx 50 futures outlook remains bearish, however, the strong recovery from Monday’s low of 4057.00 has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation higher would signal scope for 4184.50, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 4268.00, the Mar 6 high. On the downside, a reversal lower and a breach of 3914.00 would resume the recent downtrend.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4148.48 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg
• RES 3: 4119.50 High Mar 64
• RES 2: 4089.39 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg
• RES 1: 4057.50 High Mar 9
• PRICE: 4032.75 @ 07:12 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 3981.75 Low Mar 21
• SUP 2: 3897.25/3839.25 Low Mar 20 / 13
• SUP 3: 3822.00 Low Dec 22 and a key support
• SUP 4: 3778.00 Low Nov 3

S&P E-Minis have continued to climb as the contract extends the recovery from 3839.25, Mar 13 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is the 50-day EMA at 4025.43. The average was breached yesterday and a clear break would strengthen a short-term bullish theme and signal scope for a climb towards 4119.50, the Mar 6 high. A failure to hold on to recent gains would refocus attention on key support at 3839.25, the Mar 13 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K3) Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: $88.78 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $84.00/86.75 - High Mar 9 / 7 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $79.34 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $75.92/78.84 - High Mar 17 / Low Feb 6
• PRICE: $74.84 @ 06:58 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: $70.12/70.00 - Low Mar 20 / Round number support
• SUP 2: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $64.62 - 1.382 proj of the Nov - Dec - Jan price swing

Brent futures remain vulnerable following last week’s impulsive bearish wave and the contract traded lower Monday, before finding support. Price has breached $76.04, the Dec 12 low and a key medium term chart point. The break confirms a resumption of the medium-term bear trend and paves the way for weakness towards $69.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is $75.92, last Friday’s high. Gains are considered corrective.

WTI TECHS: (K3) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: $78.17/80.94 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $75.87 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $73.40 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $69.83/72.71 - High Mar 17 / 15
• PRICE: $69.19 @ 07:03 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: $64.36 - Low Mar 20
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: $63.19 - 1.764 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 - Mar 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $58.41 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 - Mar 7 price swing

WTI futures remain vulnerable and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. The contract traded to a fresh low Monday. Last week’s sell-off resulted in the break of key support at $71.10, the Dec 9 low. The break lower confirms a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Note too that price has also cleared the psychological $70.00 handle. Attention is on $62.43, the Dec 2 2021 low (cont). Initial resistance is at $69.83, last Friday’s high.

GOLD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $2034.0 - 2.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 rally from Feb 28
• RES 1: $2009.7 - High Mar 20
• PRICE: $1941.4 @ 06:53 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: $1918.3 - Low Mar 17
• SUP 2: $1892.6 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1867.5 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1827.8 - Low Mar 10

A strong rally in Gold last week saw the yellow metal trade to a fresh YTD high of $1989.4. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started in late September 2022. Monday’s gains resulted in a print above the psychological $2000 handle and this further strengthens bullish conditions and opens $2034.0 next, a Fibonacci projection. The latest pullback is considered corrective, last Friday’s low of $1918.3 marks firm support.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: $23.520 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 downleg
• RES 3: $23.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $22.829 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 downleg
• RES 1: $22.717 - High Mar 20
• PRICE: $22.374 @ 08:04 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: $21.474 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: $20.591/19.904 - Low Mar 13 / 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 4: $19.232 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg

Silver remains firm having reversed sharply higher from $19.904, the Mar 10 low. The metal is trading at its recent highs. Price has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at $21.915. The clear breach of this EMA strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards $22.829, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, $21.474 marks initial firm support, the Mar 16 low.