MNI DATA ANALYSIS:Cdn Building Permits -0.2% On Weak Non-Res>

By Yali N'Diaye

     OTTAWA (MNI) - The value of building permits issued by Canadian 

municipalities decreased 0.2% to C$8.1 billion in October, dragged by a 

drop in industrial and institutional permits, while the residential 

sector increased, data from Statistics Canada showed Monday. 

     On a 12-month basis, construction intentions were down 4.0% after 

decreasing 0.4% in September, also suggesting slower building activity 

ahead. 

     Year-to-date permits have increased 2.5%, compared with 12.1% over 

the same period in 2017. The gain this year was led by residential 

permits, while it was driven by the non-residential sector between 

January and October 2017. The monthly average building permits increase 

has decreased to 0.2% this year from 1.7% last year. 

     Looking at the trend-cycle, building permits increased from a low 

of C$6.9 billion in January 2016 to C$8.1 billion in June 2017. Since 

then, the trend has been stabilizing around C$8.0 billion. 

     - NON-RESIDENTIAL FALLS 

     Building permits fell 7.0% in October in the non-residential 

sector, after edging up 0.4% the previous month. 

     The decline was driven by a 29.9% drop in industrial permits, the 

largest monthly decline since October 2013. 

     Institutional permits also fell, by 8.7% on the month. Meanwhile, 

commercial building permits rose 2.2%. 

     In the residential sector, construction intentions were up 4.2% in 

November, with single-family dwellings up 4.6% and multiple-family 

dwelling up 3.8%, led by apartments-condominiums. 

     - VANCOUVER, TORONTO INCREASE 

     Regionally, construction intentions decreased in half of the 

provinces. 

     However, permits increased in 22 of 36 census metropolitan areas, 

led by Toronto (+17.3% after a 19% gain in September). 

     After diverging from Toronto in September, permits increased in 

Vancouver (+8.8%), another large city on the Bank of Canada's radar 

screen. 

     While tornadoes hit the Ottawa-Gatineau area on September 21, the 

impact on demolition permits remained local, with 154 residential units 

approved for demolition in Ottawa-Gatineau, compared with 1430 at the 

national level. This suggests that related rebuilding activity won't 

have any large impact on national numbers down the road. 

     The six-trend in housing starts increased to a seasonally adjusted 

annual rate of 210,038 in November from 206,460 in October, Canada 

Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported Monday, led by multi-unit 

dwellings. 

     The trend was lower in Vancouver and higher in Toronto. 

     On a standalone basis, housing starts rose to 215,941 in November 

from 206,753 in October, topping analysts' expectations in a MNI 

centering on 198,000.

     Statistics Canada's data indicate multi-family units construction 

activity could continue to increase ahead. 

--MNI Ottawa Bureau; email: yali.ndiaye@marketnews.com 

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