MNI DATA ANALYSIS: IoP, Construction Weak At Start Of Q3>

-UK Oct IoP +0.0% m/m; +3.6% y/y; Manufacturing +0.1% m/m; +3.9% y/y

-UK Oct Construction -1.7% m/m; -0.2% y/y

By Laurie Laird and Jamie Satchithanantham

     London (MNI) - Industrial production and construction were both 

subdued at the start of the third quarter, with car production -- 

largely for export -- representing the main source of economic strength 

in October. 

     Total production was unchanged in October, below the MNI median 

forecast of a 0.1% gain, after rising 0.7% in September. On an annual 

basis, production increased by 3.6%, exceeding the MNI median of a 3.5% 

rise. 

     A 2.8% jump in transport equipment pushed manufacturing output into 

the black, with much of the extra production allocated for foreign 

markets. Exports of motor vehicles surged by an annual rate of 17.6% in 

October, while domestic production of cars increased by just 6.3%. 

     Over the year to October, motor vehicle exports increased by 5.7%, 

while total production increased by just 2.3%. 

     When measured on an index level, which is calculated according to 

the volume of cars manufactured, both output of both transport equipment 

and motor vehicles hit a record level in October. 

     That pushed manufacturing output 0.1% higher in October, and 3.9% 

above the same period of 2016, largely in line with the MNI median 

forecast of a 0.1% monthly gain and a 3.8% annual rise. 

     The 0.1% m/m rise in manufacturing output meant that output had 

risen for 6 consecutive months, doing so for the first time since 

records began in 1997.   

     Over the third quarter, production rose by 1.1%, matching the 

outturn included in the second estimate of gross domestic product, 

adding 0.2 percentage points to total growth of 0.4%. Industrial 

production accounts for 14.0% of economic output. 

     Meanwhile, construction output fell by 1.7% in October, the 

steepest drop since March of 2016 and declined by 0.2% over the same 

period of 2016. 

     Over the third quarter, construction dropped by 0.9%, unchanged 

from the latest estimate of GDP. Construction shaved 0.1 percentage 

point from total growth in the third quarter. Construction accounts for 

6.1% of total output. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]