MNI DATA ANALYSIS: May Trade Gap Falls; Could Lift Q@ GDP>

-UK May Total Deficit Stg2.790bn vs Stg3.087bn in April

By Laurie Laird and Jamie Satchithanantham

     London (MNI) - The UK trade gap narrowed in May, lifted by 

increased exports of oil and transport equipment, leaving net trade on 

track to support gross domestic product in the second quarter. 

     The shortfall fell to Stg2.790 billion in May, but still exceeded 

the MNI median forecast of Stg2.3 billion, following a deficit of 

Stg3.087 billion a month earlier.  The April deficit was revised lower 

from the Stg5.280 billion reported in early June. 

     Total exports rose by 2.8% to Stg51.846 billion in May, while 

imports increased by 2.1% to Stg54.636 billion. 

     For the first time, the Office for National Statistics has provided 

price-adjusted trade data, which are aligned with the figures used to 

calculate GDP. On this chained-volume measure, the shortfall narrowed to 

Stg1.988 billion in May, from Stg2.865 billion in April. 

     In the absence of revisions, the deficit must fall further to 

Stg1.679 billion in June to leave the second quarter shortfall on 

level-pegging with the trade gap over the first three months of the 

year. 

     The current-price deficit in goods narrowed only slightly to 

Stg12.362 billion in May, from Stg12.396 billion gap in April. 

     Total goods exports rose by 4.1% to Stg28.071 billion in May, while 

imports increased by 2.7% to Stg40.433 billion. 

     The trade gap in goods with the 27 other nations of the European 

Union rose to Stg8.871 billion in May from Stg8.061 billion in April. 

     The non-EU trade gap narrowed to Stg3.491 billion in May, 

from Stg4.335 billion the previous month, courtesy of a 7.7% rise in 

exports of machinery and transport equipment. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]