MNI DATA ANALYSIS: UK Dec-Feb Wages Creep Up; Unemployment Down>

-UK Dec-Feb Total Earnings +2.8% 3m/year-ago vs +2.8% Nov-Jan

-UK Dec-Feb Real Total Earnings +0.1% 3m/year-ago vs 0.0% Nov-Jan

-UK Dec-Feb LFS Unemployment Rate 4.2% vs 4.3% Nov-Jan

-UK Dec-Feb Employment +55,000; Employment Rate 75.4%

     By Laurie Laird and Jamie Satchithanantham 

     London (MNI) - UK nominal earnings grew by their fastest pace in 

about a year, pushing real wage growth - both including and excluding 

bonuses -- into positive territory, as the unemployment fell in the 

three months to February. 

     Employment rose by 55,000 to 32.26 million, after increase of 

168,000 between November and January, above the MNI median 

forecast of a 30,000 gain. That took the employment rate to a 

record-high 75.4%. 

     Unemployment fell by 16,000 in the three months to February, to 

1.42 million, as inactivity decreased by 2,000 to 8.73 million, taking 

the inactivity rate to a joint record-low 21.2%.

     Joblessness, as measured by the Labour Force Survey, declined to 

4.2% in the three months to February, below the MNI median forecast of 

4.3%, from 4.3% in the three months to January, matching the lowest rate 

since the three months to March of 1975.

     The outturn fell below the 4.3% jobless rate forecast of Bank of 

England staff for the three months to February, as published in the 

February Quarterly Inflation report. 

     But an upturn in wages, long-awaited by the Bank's Monetary Policy 

Committee, appears to be materialising. According to the minutes of the 

Bank's March MPC meeting, members noted that "a range of survey 

indicators suggest pay growth will rise further in response to the 

tightening labour market." 

     Total weekly earnings increased by an annual pace of 2.8% in the 

three months to February, matching the January outturn, but falling 

below the MNI median forecast of 3.0%. 

     Adjusting for inflation, wages rose by 0.1%, up from no change in 

the three months to January, the fastest rate of increase since the 

first quarter of 2017. 

     However, the Office for National Statistics uses the CPIH measure 

of inflation to discount nominal wages, which is running slightly below 

the CPI measure still used by the Bank of England as an inflation 

target. When discounted by the CPI, real wage growth remains negative, 

according to a National Statistics official. 

     Excluding bonuses, regular earnings, before adjusting for 

inflation, improved by an annual pace of 2.8% in the latest three 

months, matching the MNI median forecast, up from 2.6% in the previous 

period. 

     Price-adjusted regular earnings -- again discounted by CPIH -- rose 

by 0.2% over the same period a year earlier, the quickest pace since the 

three months to January of 2017.  

     The jobless rate fell to 4.0% in the month of February, according 

to experimental data, from 4.3% in January, the lowest rate since 

records began in 1992.

     The more up-to-date claimant count rose by 11,600 in March, 

leaving the associated unemployment rate at 2.4%, unchanged from 

February. 

     The claimant count for February was revised to show a 15,100 rise, 

compared to the 9,200 increase reported last month. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com