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MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US January Durable Orders Fell 3.7%>

--Ex-Transportation Orders -0.3%; Transportation Orders -10.0%
--Nondefense Aircraft And Parts New Orders -28.4%
--Nondefense Cap Goods Ex Aircrafts New Orders -0.2%
By Sara Haire and Holly Stokes
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The value of U.S. durable goods new orders fell 
3.7% in January, falling below the 2.5% decrease expected by analysts 
in an MNI survey. Transportation orders fell 10.0%, and new orders 
excluding transportation orders posted a 0.3% decline, data released 
Tuesday by the Commerce Department showed. 
     The fall in new orders excluding transportation was well below the 
0.2% gain expected and reflected declines in most categories. The only 
gains in new orders were in fabricated metal products (+0.5%) and 
computers and electronic products (+0.6%). 
     This is the first decline in new orders excluding transportation 
following six consecutive monthly increases. This decline marks a 
potential end to continued underlying strength in durable new orders, 
something analyst forecasts had not anticipated. 
--AIRCRAFTS FALL
     As expected, nondefense aircraft and parts new orders saw a large 
decline of 28.4% in January, following a 16.1% rise in December and a 
14.1% increase in November. Meanwhile, defense aircraft and parts 
dropped 45.6%, effectively reversing the 47.8% gain seen in December. 
Motor vehicles orders saw a 0.1% rise. In addition, transportation 
orders excluding motor vehicles and aircraft fell 21.6%, according to an 
MNI calculation. 
     Nondefense capital goods new orders saw a decline of 1.5%, and 
was still down 2.1% when excluding civilian aircraft, according to an 
MNI calculation. Nondefense capital goods new orders excluding all 
aircrafts was down 0.2%. 
--SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES RISE
     Durable goods shipments rose 0.2% in January, with nondefense 
capital goods shipments flat and up 0.1% excluding civilian aircraft 
shipments, according to an MNI calculation, and still up 0.1% excluding 
all aircrafts. 
     Durable goods inventories were up 0.3% in the month, while unfilled 
orders saw a 0.3% decrease.  
     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$] 

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