MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US January Durable Orders Fell 3.7%>

--Ex-Transportation Orders -0.3%; Transportation Orders -10.0%

--Nondefense Aircraft And Parts New Orders -28.4%

--Nondefense Cap Goods Ex Aircrafts New Orders -0.2%

By Sara Haire and Holly Stokes

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The value of U.S. durable goods new orders fell 

3.7% in January, falling below the 2.5% decrease expected by analysts 

in an MNI survey. Transportation orders fell 10.0%, and new orders 

excluding transportation orders posted a 0.3% decline, data released 

Tuesday by the Commerce Department showed. 

     The fall in new orders excluding transportation was well below the 

0.2% gain expected and reflected declines in most categories. The only 

gains in new orders were in fabricated metal products (+0.5%) and 

computers and electronic products (+0.6%). 

     This is the first decline in new orders excluding transportation 

following six consecutive monthly increases. This decline marks a 

potential end to continued underlying strength in durable new orders, 

something analyst forecasts had not anticipated. 

--AIRCRAFTS FALL

     As expected, nondefense aircraft and parts new orders saw a large 

decline of 28.4% in January, following a 16.1% rise in December and a 

14.1% increase in November. Meanwhile, defense aircraft and parts 

dropped 45.6%, effectively reversing the 47.8% gain seen in December. 

Motor vehicles orders saw a 0.1% rise. In addition, transportation 

orders excluding motor vehicles and aircraft fell 21.6%, according to an 

MNI calculation. 

     Nondefense capital goods new orders saw a decline of 1.5%, and 

was still down 2.1% when excluding civilian aircraft, according to an 

MNI calculation. Nondefense capital goods new orders excluding all 

aircrafts was down 0.2%. 

--SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES RISE

     Durable goods shipments rose 0.2% in January, with nondefense 

capital goods shipments flat and up 0.1% excluding civilian aircraft 

shipments, according to an MNI calculation, and still up 0.1% excluding 

all aircrafts. 

     Durable goods inventories were up 0.3% in the month, while unfilled 

orders saw a 0.3% decrease.  

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$]