MNI DATA ANALYSIS:US January Factory Orders Falls 1.4%>

--Factory Inventories +0.3%; Business Inventories Tracking +0.6%

By Sara Haire and Holly Stokes

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The value of new factory orders in January saw a 

1.4% decline, slightly lower than the 1.3% decrease expected in an 

MNI survey, data released by the Commerce Department Tuesday morning 

showed. 

     Nondurable goods orders rose 0.8%, while durable goods orders were 

revised up marginally to a 3.6% decrease from the 3.7% decline reported 

in the advance estimate. 

     Petroleum and coal products shipments were up 3.5% in January, 

leading the increase in nondurables orders. Also contributing to the 

increase was food products, paper products, and apparel. The rest of the 

categories were mixed, with few significant declines. Nondurables 

shipments are equivalent to orders in this report. 

     Total factory orders excluding transportation rose 0.4% in January, 

this is a softer gain than the 0.9% and 1.1% rises seen in December and 

November, respectively. This increase makes it the eighth consecutive 

rise. 

--TRANSPORTATION FALLS SIGNIFICANTLY

     Transportation orders for January decreased 10.0% based on 

Tuesday's data. Contributing to the decline, defense aircraft and parts 

fell 45.6%, while nondefense aircraft and parts orders also fell 

drastically by 28.4%. Motor vehicles orders also saw a decline, albeit a 

smaller 0.5% in January. However, the only increase registered in the 

transportation category was for orders for ships and boats which rose by 

6.7%. The unlisted transportation components also declined by 6.2%. 

     Nondefense capital goods new orders declined by 1.6%, and even 

excluding aircraft it saw a decline of 0.3%. Civilian aircraft capital 

goods was down 12.6%, and excluding defense and civilian aircraft it 

was down 0.6%. 

--SHIPMENTS AND INVENTORIES RISE

     Overall factory shipments rose 0.6% in the month due to a 0.3% gain 

in durable goods shipments and a 0.8% rise in nondurables shipments. 

Nondefense capital goods shipments registered a decline of 0.1%, and was 

still down 0.1% when excluding the aircraft component. 

     Factory inventories increased by 0.3% in the month, compared with 

the 0.6% increase in shipments, keeping the inventory-to-shipments ratio 

at 1.35, making this the third consecutive month. 

     The Commerce Department's advance report on inventories showed a 

0.7% increase for wholesale inventories and a 0.8% increase for retail 

inventories. While these data are eligible for revision, the levels as 

they stand now, combined with Tuesday's factory inventory data, would 

result in a 0.6% rise in January business inventories when that report 

is released on March 14, an MNI calculation showed. The revised 

wholesale data for January will be released on March 9 and could alter 

this projection. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$]