MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Fell 8,000 In July 14 Wk>

--Claims Stand 11,000 Below The 218,000 Level In June 16 Survey Week

--Initial Claims Four-Week Average Fell 2,750 To 220,500

By Kevin Kastner, Harrison Clarke, and Shikha Dave

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

fell by 8,000 to 207,000 in the July 14 employment survey week, below 

the 220,000 level expected by analysts in an MNI survey following a 

upward revision to claims in the previous week, data released by the 

Labor Department Thursday showed. 

     Initial claims were at their lowest level since the December 6, 

1969 week, when they were 202,000.

     Claims were at a level of 218,000 in the June 16 employment survey 

week, so today's data were a strong positive for July payrolls.

     A better measure for the underlying trend of the data is the 

four-week moving average for initial claims. The average fell by 2,750 

to 220,500 in the July 14 week, and was down 500 from the 221,000 

level in the June 16 employment survey week. 

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average would fall by 5,250 as the 228,000 level in the June 23 week 

rolls out of the calculation, still keeping the average below its year 

ago level. 

     The claims data are viewed cautiously in early-July due to the 

typical time of auto plant shutdowns for retooling. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected a decrease of 9.6%, or 

25,328 in unadjusted claims. Unadjusted claims however, fell by 12.7%, 

or 33,522 to 231,347. The current week's level was below the 257,763 

level in the comparable week a year ago. 

     Initial claims were estimated for Maine only. 

--CONTINUING CLAIMS RISE

     The level of continuing claims rose by 8,000 to 1.751 million in 

the July 7 week. Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims rose by 

133,591 to 1.770 million, remaining below the 1.996 million level seen 

in the comparable week last year. 

     The four-week average for continuing claims, which tends to be a  

more reliable measure as the continuing claims consistently fluctuate 

week-to-week, rose by 6,250 to 1.736 million. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 

1.2% in the July 7 week, down from 1.4% in the same week a year earlier, 

reinforcing that the level of insured unemployment is particularly low. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]