MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Rise 11,000 In May 12 Wk>

--Initial Claims Four-Wk Average -2,750 To 213,250, Low Since Dec 1969 

By Kevin Kastner and Holly Stokes

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

rose by 11,000 to 222,000 in the May 12 employment survey week, ahead of 

the 215,000 level expected by analysts in an MNI survey, but still low 

enough to drive down the four week moving average to another new 

decades-low level, data released by the Labor Department Thursday 

showed. 

     The level of initial claims was down 11,000 from the 233,000 level 

in the April 14 employment survey week, a positive for May payrolls, 

though not as impressive as the comparison would have been in the 

previous weeks. 

--CLAIMS FOUR-WEEK AVERAGE ANOTHER 48-YEAR LOW 

     The four-week moving average for initial claims, which tends to be 

a better measure of the underlying trend of the data, fell by 2,750 to 

213,250 in the May 12 week. The average stands at its lowest point since 

the December 13, 1969 week, when it was 210,750 and is 18,250 below the 

average in the April 14 employment survey week, another significant 

positive for May payrolls. 

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average will rise by 3,250 as the 209,000 level in the April 21 week 

rolls out of the calculation, but the average will still be extremely 

low. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected a decrease of 2.7%, or 

5,074, in unadjusted claims. Instead, unadjusted claims rose by 4,295 

(2.3%) to 194,557. The current week's level was still below the 206,905 

level in the comparable week a year ago. 

     The only states where claims were estimated were again Colorado and 

Maine. However, the claims taking procedures in the Virgin Islands and 

Puerto Rico have still not returned to normal.   

--CONTINUING CLAIMS FALL FURTHER 

     The level of continuing claims fell by 87,000 to 1.707 million in 

the May 5 week, the lowest level since the December 1, 1973 week, when 

it was 1.692 million. 

     Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims fell by 133,062 to 

1.591 million, well below the 1.782 million level seen in the comparable 

week last year. 

     The four-week average for continuing claims, a more reliable 

measure when the continuing claims are rapidly moving week-to-week, fell 

by 39,750 to 1.774 million, the lowest point since the December 22, 1973 

week. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate fell to 1.2% in 

the May 5 week, down from 1.3% in the previous week and 1.4% in the same 

week a year earlier. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]