MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Rise 11,000 In May 19 Wk>

--Initial Claims Four-Wk Average +6,250 To 219,750

By Kevin Kastner

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

rose by 11,000 to 234,000 in the May 19 week, well above the 220,000 

level expected by analysts in an MNI survey, while the four-week moving 

average posted its first gain in five weeks, data released by the Labor 

Department Thursday showed. 

     Even with the gains in the previous two weeks, claims have only 

returned to the trim levels seen through much of the last year and 

suggest that the decades-low levels seen of the last month were 

unstainable. 

--CLAIMS FOUR-WEEK AVERAGE REBOUND AFTER 48-YEAR LOW 

     The four-week moving average for initial claims, which tends to be 

a better measure of the underlying trend of the data, rose by 6,250 to 

219,750 in the May 19 week after four straight declines, but was still 

near the 48-year low posted in the previous week. 

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average will rise by an additional 5,750 as the 211,000 level in the 

April 28 week rolls out of the calculation, but the average will still 

be below its year ago level. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected an increase of 0.8%, or 

1,560, in unadjusted claims. Instead, unadjusted claims rose by 11,654 

(6.0%) to 206,868, likely payback from low levels seen over the last 

month. The current week's level was slightly below the 210,544 level in 

the comparable week a year ago. 

     The only state where claims was estimated was Maine, as Colorado 

was able to produce actual data. The claims-taking procedures in the 

Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico have still not returned to normal.   

--CONTINUING CLAIMS MOVE UP 

     The level of continuing claims rose by 29,000 to 1.741 million in 

the May 12 employment survey week, down 93,000 from the level in the 

1.834 million level in the April 14 employment survey week, a very 

strong positive sign for May payrolls. 

     Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims rose by 7,800 to 

1.603 million, well below the 1.784 million level seen in the comparable 

week last year. 

     The four-week average for continuing claims, a more reliable 

measure when the continuing claims are rapidly moving week-to-week, fell 

by 23,250 to 1.752 million, hitting its lowest point since the December 

15, 1973 week. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate stayed at 1.2% in 

the May 12 week, down from 1.4% in the same week a year earlier and an 

indication of how low the level of insured unemployment stands. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]