MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Rise 3,000 In Nov 17 Wk>

--Initial Claims Four-Week Average Up 2,000 To 218,500 

--Initial Claims Up 14,000 From October 13 Survey week

--Durable Goods Orders Lower-Than-Expected -4.4%; Ex Trans +0.1%

By Kevin Kastner

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

rose by 3,000 to 224,000 in the November 17 employment survey week, 

well ahead expectations for a 215,000 level and the highest level since 

late-June, data released by the Labor Department Wednesday showed.

     The level of claims was revised up to 221,000 in the November 10 

week from the previously reported 216,000 level, likely reflecting noise 

around the Veteran's Day holiday. 

     The level of initial claims was up 14,000 from the 210,000 level in 

the October 13 employment survey week, but the level of claims remains 

well below its level in the comparable week a year ago.

     Also released at the same time, durable goods orders posted a 4.4% 

decrease in October due to a plunge in transportation orders, 

particularly the volatile nondefense aircraft categories. Analysts had 

expected a 2.5% decline. Downward revisions to the September orders data 

make the headline look even worse.

--CLAIMS TRENDING UP, SOME NOISE

     The proximity of the Veteran's Day and Thanksgiving holidays throws 

a lot of noise into the data. Add the possible impact of the wildfires 

in California, and it may be hard to get a handle on the true claims 

trend.

     A better measure for the underlying trend of the data is the 

four-week moving average for initial claims. The average rose by 2,000 

to 218,500 in the November 17 week, the highest point since mid-July.

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average would rise by 2,250 as the 215,000 level in the October 27 week 

rolls out of the calculation. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected a decrease of 5.6%, or 

13,245 in unadjusted claims. However, claims actually posted a decrease 

of 4.2%, or 9,918, to 226,063. The current week's level was below the 

275,004 level in the comparable week a year ago. 

--CONTINUING CLAIMS TICK DOWN, 4-WK AVERAGE UP

     The level of continuing claims fell by 2,000 to 1.668 million in 

the November 10 week.

     Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims rose by 16,025 to 

1.453 million, remaining well below the 1.724 million level seen in the 

comparable week last year. 

     The four-week average for continuing claims, which tends to be a  

more reliable measure as continuing claims consistently fluctuate 

week-to-week, rose by 7,500 to 1.650 million. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at 

1.2% in the November 10 week, down from 1.4% in the same week a year 

earlier, reinforcing that the level of insured unemployment is extremely 

low. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

--DURABLE GOODS ORDERS PLUNGE

     Also released Wednesday, durable goods new orders were weaker than 

expected, falling by 4.4% in October compared with the 2.5% decline 

expected and posting the largest decline since July 2017. The key 

factor, as expected, was a sharp decline in transportation orders, 

particularly a 21.4% decline in nondefense aircraft orders and a 59.3% 

drop in defense aircraft orders. 

     Additionally, the orders data were revised lower in September, a 

negative for the third quarter GDP revision. Shipments were revised only 

slightly lower in September. 

     Outside of transportation, new orders were also weaker-than-expected, 

rising by only 0.1% compared with the 0.3% gain expected. Still, the 

underlying trend remains positive with gains in eight of the last nine 

months, the exception being a downward revised 0.6% decline in September. 

     Transportation orders fell by 12.2%, with the decline in both 

defense and nondefense aircraft orders partially offset by a 0.2% 

increase motor vehicles orders. There was a 19.4% decline in the 

unpublished transportation components, an MNI calculation shows, which 

added to the decline. 

     Other orders categories were mixed. There were gains for fabricated 

metals, computers and electrical equipment that offset declines for 

primary metals and machinery. 

     Nondefense capital goods new orders fell by 4.2%, but were flat 

excluding aircraft. 

     Durable goods inventories were flat in October, while shipments 

fell 0.6% and unfilled orders were down 0.2%. Nondefense capital goods 

shipments fell 2.4%, but were up 0.3% excluding civilian aircraft. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

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