MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Rise 53,000 In Jan 26 Wk>

--Initial Claims Four-Week Average Up 5,000 To 220,250

--Initial Claims Highest Level Since September 30, 2017 Week

--Continuing Claims Highest Level Since April 28, 2018 Week

--4Q ECI Up 0.7%, Wages Up 0.6%, Benefits Up 0.7% 

By Harrison Clarke and Shikha Dave

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

rose by 53,000 to 253,000 in the January 26 week, well above 

expectations for a 218,000 level, and the highest since the September 

30, 2017 week, data released by the Labor Department Thursday showed. 

     The reading for initial claims reflects seasonal adjustment 

difficulties and increased filing by government contractors in a week 

where NSA claims would be expected to plunge. The rebound partially 

makes up for the decades-low 200,000 level in the previous week.

     Data released at the same time showed that the Employment Cost 

Index rose in the fourth quarter by 0.7% vs an expected 0.8% increase, 

slightly below the 0.8% increase seen in the third quarter. 

     The level of claims was revised to 200,000 in the January 19 week 

from the previously reported 199,000 level. Initial unadjusted claims 

for federal employees filing in federal programs, which does not feed 

into the headline number, fell by 10,680 to 14,739 in the January 19 

week, compared to 1,004 in the comparable week last year. 

     Since the partial government shutdown ended on January 25, it will 

continue to affect the reported number of federal employees filing in 

federal programs for the next two weeks.  

--SEASONAL FACTOR DIFFICULTIES AFFECTING CLAIMS

     A better measure for the underlying trend of the data is the 

four-week moving average for initial claims. The average rose by 5,000 

to 220,250 in the January 26 week. 

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average would rise by 9,250 as the 216,000 level in the January 5 week 

rolls out of the calculation. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected a decrease of 26.4%, or 

71,347 in unadjusted claims. However, claims actually posted a decrease 

of 7.3%, or 19,569 to 250,188. The current week's level was below the 

267,766 level in the comparable week a year ago. 

--CONTINUING CLAIMS HIGHEST SINCE APRIL

     The level of continuing claims rose by 69,000 to 1.782 million in 

the January 19 week, the highest level since the April 28, 2018 week. 

Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims rose by 38,555 to 2.129 

million, below the 2.376 million level seen in the comparable week last 

year. 

     The four-week average for continuing claims, which tends to be a  

more reliable measure as continuing claims consistently fluctuate 

week-to-week, rose by 8,000 to 1.738 million. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 

1.2% in the January 19 week, down from 1.4% in the same week a year 

earlier, reinforcing that the level of insured unemployment is extremely 

low. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

--ECI RATE SLOWS, BUT Y/Y FASTER

     The Employment Cost Index rose in the fourth quarter by 0.7% vs an 

expected 0.8% increase, slightly below the 0.8% increase seen in the 

third quarter, data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed. 

     While the quarter/quarter pace of growth decelerated slightly in 

the most recent quarter, the year-over-year rate was up 2.9%, faster 

than the 2.8% rate in the previous quarter, suggesting steady 

compensation growth.     

     Benefits growth accelerated this quarter with a 0.7% increase, 

following a 0.4% gain in the third quarter. Along with the acceleration, 

benefits were up 2.8% year/year, a faster pace than the 2.6% year/year 

rate in third quarter, and faster than the 2.5% year/year seen in 

the fourth quarter of 2017. The benefits year/year growth is continuing 

to trend upwards. 

     Wage and salary growth saw a deceleration to a 0.6% gain from a 

0.9% gain in the third quarter. The year/year pace rose to 3.1%, higher 

than the 2.5% year/year pace seen in the fourth quarter of 2017. 

     Among the occupational groups, private industry workers 

compensation costs increased 3.0% year/year on gains for sales and 

office workers, leisure and hospitality workers, and information 

workers, as well as smaller gains in most other groups. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

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