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Free AccessMNI DATA ANALYSIS: US July Trade Gap Widened To $50.1b>
--Census Goods Gap $72.0b Vs $72.2b Advance Estimate
By Kevin Kastner, Shikha Dave, and Harrison Clarke
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The U.S. international trade gap widened to
$50.1 billion in July from $45.7 billion, a slightly wider gap than the
$50.0 billion deficit expected and the largest monthly increase since
March 2015, data released by the Commerce Department Wednesday morning
showed.
The overall July trade gap was much wider than the second quarter
average, as was the census goods gap and the chained trade gap, so if
the trade gap does not narrow in August or September, net exports could
be a large drag on third quarter growth.
--RECORD TRADE GAPS WITH CHINA, EU
Also of interest, the trade gaps with China and the EU both hit
record high levels in July, ammunition for those in favor of further
tariffs. The gap with Canada also widened this month, while the gap with
Mexico narrowed, but both were wider than a year ago.
The unadjusted bilateral trade gap with China widened to a record
high $36.8 billion in July from $33.5 billion in June and $33.6 billion
a year ago. At the same time, the gap with the EU widened to a record
$17.6 billion from $11.7 billion in June.
The gap with Canada widened to $3.1 billion from $2.0 billion in
June, while the gap with Mexico narrowed to $5.5 billion from $7.4
billion.
--CENSUS GAP REVISED SMALLER
The revised Census goods gap reported Wednesday was slightly
smaller than the advance estimate of $72.2 billion, coming in at $72.0
billion after $67.9 billion in June and a $66.7 billion average in the
second quarter.
The overall BOP goods gap widened to $73.1 billion from $68.9
billion in June, while the services surplus narrowed very slightly to
$23.1 billion.
The chained goods gap widened to $82.5 billion from $79.3 billion
in June, and is larger the $77.5 billion average for the second quarter,
a negative factor for third quarter GDP.
The petroleum gap widened to $4.5 billion in July from $4.2 billion
in June, with import growth larger than export growth. The nonpetroleum
goods gap widened to $67.5 billion from $63.7 billion.
--EXPORTS FALL, IMPORTS RISE
Exports declined in July, with a $0.9 billion fall in foods, feeds,
and beverages, a $0.9 billion drop in capital goods ex autos on a $1.6
billion decline in civilian aircraft orders, and a $0.4 billion decline
in consumer goods. These were offset by increases in industrial supplies
and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines.
Imports increased in July, with a $0.7 billion rise in capital
goods ex autos, a $0.5 billion rise in industrial supplies, as well as
increases of $0.3 billion and $0.5 billion in foods, feeds, and
beverages and automotive vehicles, respectively. These were offset by a
$0.8 billion decline in consumer goods imports, specifically
pharmaceutical preps.
** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.