MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US June Business Inventories Up 0.1%>

--Retail Inventories Up 0.1%, Rev Up From Flat Adv Estimate 

--Total Business Inventories Excluding Retail Auto Still Up 0.1%

--Unpublished Retail Components Up 0.3%, MNI Calculation Shows

By Kevin Kastner

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The value of business inventories in June was up 

0.1%, as expected by analysts and the MNI calculated prediction, data 

released by the Commerce Department Wednesday morning showed. 

     Retail inventories rose 0.1%, revised up from the flat reading in 

the advance estimate. Data from the wholesale inventory report showed a 

0.1% rise in the month, which was revised up from the flat reading in 

the advance report, while factory inventories were also up 0.1%. 

     According to an MNI calculation, if a 0.1% decrease in motor 

vehicle inventories had been excluded, total business inventories would 

have been still have been up 0.1% in June. The decrease in motor vehicles 

was revised up to a 0.1% drop from the 0.3% decline in the advance 

estimate. 

     After excluding the decrease in motor vehicle inventories, the 

remaining retail categories were up 0.2%, revised down from the advance 

estimate for a 0.3% gain. There were decreases in every category except 

for a 1.5% rise in building materials and a flat reading for food and 

beverage stories. 

     However, the relatively large unpublished retail categories rose 

0.3% following a 0.3% increase in May, according to an MNI calculation. 

--BUSINESS SALES RISE; RATIO DROPS

     June business sales posted a 0.3% increase in the month, below the 

0.4% rise forecast by MNI after the wholesale data were released, but 

before the large downward revision to June retail trade sales released 

earlier Wednesday morning. 

     Retail sales excluding food services were flat in June, revised 

down from the 0.3% gain reported last month. Factory shipments, which 

are equal to sales in this report, were up 1.0%, while wholesale sales 

rose by 0.1%. 

     The inventory-to-sales ratio slipped to 1.33 in June from 1.34 due 

to the larger gain in sales than in inventories this month. The ratio 

remains well below the 1.39 level seen in June 2017, as sales growth has 

outpaced inventory growth over the last year. 

     The last time the ratio was this low was November 2014, when it was 

also 1.33, suggesting businesses are holding stocks very tight ahead of 

an expected sales slowdown in the third quarter. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]