MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Mar Retail Sales Rise 0.6%, Ex-MV +0.2%>

--March Retail Sales Ex. Auto, Gas, Bldg Mat, Food Service +0.4%

By Sara Haire and Holly Stokes

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The value of retail sales rose by 0.6% in March, 

much stronger than analysts' expectations for a 0.3% gain, and were up 

only 0.2% excluding motor vehicle sales, data released by the Commerce 

Department Monday showed. 

     Analysts have had no clear tendency of underestimating headline 

retail sales growth in March in recent years, however, analysts have 

overestimated the retail sales ex-auto figure six times in the last 10 

years, and for the past three Marches. Today's data deviate from that 

trend, as analysts had expected a smaller 0.1% rise. 

--CONSUMPTION ON THE RISE

     Leading the gain in headline retail sales was the surge in motor 

vehicles, rising even further than what was expected, posting a 2.0% 

gain after declining two months in a row. As pointed out in an MNI 

preview, gasoline station stores put downward pressure on the headline 

number by declining 0.3% in March, following increases in the past three 

months. Food services and drinking places' sales were up again in March, 

registering a 0.4% increase after rising by 0.4% in February. Building 

materials sales declined 0.6% following a large 2.0% increase in 

February. 

     The "control" retail sales group, which excludes autos, gasoline, 

and building materials rose by 0.4% in the month. Further, exluding food 

services as well as the other three measures, retail sales also saw a 

0.4% increase. This follows soft readings in the previous two months, 

showing marked improvement for the quarter. 

     March saw declines in gas station sales, building materials, 

clothing, sporting goods and hobby stores, department stores, and 

miscellaneous store retailers. However, these declines were offset by 

gains in all other categories. 

--FIRST QTR SALES SLIGHT UPTICK

     First quarter consumption tends to be relatively soft following 

fourth quarter, and this quarter should be no different. However, March 

was able to slightly offset the relative weakness in the previous two 

months. 

     Incorporating the small revision to January and no revision to 

February data, first quarter sales were up 0.8% at an annual rate, while 

sales excluding motor vehicles were up 2.7% from the fourth quarter. 

Sales excluding autos, building materials, and gas were up 1.6% while 

sales also excluding food services were up 1.0%. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

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