MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US March Payrolls Soft +103k, 4.1% Rate>

--Hourly Earnings +0.3% After +0.1% in February, Y/Y Rate Now +2.7%

--Weaker Than Expected Payrolls Follow -50k Revision To Jan-Feb 

--Participation Rate Down Slightly To 62.9% From 63.0% In February

By Sara Haire and Holly Stokes

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The March employment report released Friday 

showed nonfarm payrolls were much softer than the 195k expected by 

analysts and the 210k expected by the whisper number, rising only 

103,000 following a net downward revision of 50,000 in the previous two 

months, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

     An MNI analysis had shown a tendency of analysts to overestimate 

payrolls in recent March reports, so the softer than expected reading 

followed this trend. 

--HOURLY EARNINGS STRONG

     Average hourly earnings were up 0.3% in March, as expected by 

analysts but greatly outpacing the 0.1% gain expected by the whisper 

number. As previewed in an MNI preview, severe weather likely skewed 

the labor force and provided an upward boost to the average hourly 

earnings print. 

     The 0.1% rise in February was unrevised. The year/year rate 

increased to 2.7% in March from 2.6% in February. 

     The overall average workweek stayed at 34.5 hours in March. The 

combination of earnings and hours worked should be a positive for 

personal income growth in March. 

--MIXED PAYROLLS

     There were strong payrolls gains for  manufacturing (+22k), health 

care and social assistance (+34k), and professional and business 

services (+33k). However, there was weakness in construction (-15k) and 

retail (-4k) following their strong prints in February. 

--UNEMPLOYMENT RATE STILL 4.1%

     The unemployment rate stayed at 4.1% for the sixth straight month. 

When seen unrounded, the rate came very close to 4.0%, falling from 

4.1415% to 4.0708%. The labor force participation rate continued to be 

strong, only slipping modestly to 62.9% after February's surge. 

     The labor force declined 158,000 after increasing by 806,000 last 

month. Household employment dipped 37,000 in March , while the number of 

unemployed decreased by 121,000. As a result, the labor participation 

rate slipped modestly to 62.9% from 63.0% in February. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$,MT$$$$]