MNI DATA BRIEF: Canada Jobs Seen Falling For 2nd Month in May

Canada's May's Labour Force Survey on Friday will likely show a 23K job loss following April's 207K decline reflecting a drag from the pandemic's third wave, a weak note in the last top line data before the central bank's rate decision next Wednesday.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 8.1% according to the economist consensus. Joblessness had dropped from a modern era record high of 13.7% during the first Covid wave to 7.5% in March as firms adapted to social distancing rules and vaccines emerged.

The release is due at 830am EST and industry sources told MNI there are signs of shifting retail workers to other industries like construction due to higher compensation and job security. Job losses are expected to be in retail and hospitality, which some economists expect will be quickly reversed in coming months with a clear majority of Canadians getting vaccinated. One quirk to watch out for is the April report showed a decline in hours worked due to a one-time shift in Ontario's spring break.