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MNI (London)
--Japan Q3 GDP Rev +0.4% Q/Q; Prelim +0.1%; MNI Median +0.2% 
--Japan Q3 Annualized GDP Rev +1.8% Vs +0.2%; MNI Median +0.9% 
--Japan Q3 Capex Rev +1.8% Q/Q; Prelim +0.9%; Median +2.0% 
--Japan Q3 Capex Contribution Revised At +0.3 Point Vs. +0.1 pt 
--Japan Q3 Net Export Contribution Unrevised -0.2 Pct Point
     TOKYO (MNI) - Japan's economy grew at a faster pace than initially
estimated in the July-September quarter, with business investment stronger than
first reported, revised data released by the Cabinet Office Monday showed.
     The economy rose 0.4% on quarter, or an annualized 1.8%, in Q3, thanks to
strong capital investment, public investment and private consumption.
     The main points of note include:
     --Real Q3 GDP was revised up from the preliminary estimate of +0.1% on
quarter and an annualized 0.2%, outpacing the MNI median forecast of +0.2% q/q,
or annualized +0.9%, gain.
     --The upward revision came mainly from higher capital investment, revised
up to a 1.8% gain (the MNI median forecast was +2.0%) from a preliminary +0.9%.
There was a 0.2% fall in Q2.
     --The contribution to overall GDP from capital investment was revised up to
+0.3 percentage point from +0.1 pp initially.
     --Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of GDP, was revised to
+0.5% (vs. +0.4%) on quarter. It pushed overall GDP higher by a revised rounded
+0.3 pp vs. +0.2 pp.
     --The contribution of net exports -- exports minus imports -- was unrevised
at -0.2 percentage point. 
     --The contribution of private-sector inventories to total domestic output
was revised to -0.2 percentage point from -0.3 percentage point and the GDP
contribution of public investment was unrevised at 0.0 percentage point.
     --Japan's economy is expected to contract in Q4to, weighed by the drop in
private consumption after the sales tax hike on Oct. 1 and weak exports caused
by the sustained slowdown in overseas economies.
     --Bank of Japan economists are no awaiting confirmation of downward
revisions to capital investment plans and whether they deviate from the
historical averages, as that will guide towards likely growth in Q4 and Q1.
     --The government's economic stimulus package will stimulate economic
activity and prevent the economy from worsening, which in turn would tolerate
the BOJ not to conduct additional easy policy.
     --The average economist forecast for Q4 GDP growth is annualized at -2.65%,
according to the latest monthly ESP Survey of 35 economists by the Japan Center
for Economic Research conducted from October 28 to November 5.
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-2175-0040; email:
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email:
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 |

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