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Free AccessMNI DATA IMPACT. NZ Q3 GDP Meets Forecasts, Though Y/Y Lower
By Lachlan Colquhoun
SYDNEY (MNI) - New Zealand GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2018 was
released Thursday. Here are five things of interest in the release by Statistics
New Zealand.
Q4 result meets market expectations, falls short of RBNZ.
The NZ economy grew by 0.6% in Q4, 2018, recovering from a disappointing 0.3%
rise in Q3. The result was in line with market expectations but below the 0.8 %
forecast by the RBNZ. The figure for Y/Y growth was 2.3%, against 2.6% at the
end of Q3. According to Stats NZ, 2018 calendar year growth stood at 2.8%.
Implications for RBNZ policy.
The RBNZ estimate of 3.0% growth for 2019 may not be achieved, despite the low
unemployment rate of 4.3%. RBNZ monetary policy is currently balanced, but
today's result gives no clear direction on the next move in interest rates,
which are likely to stay at the current 1.75% for the duration of 2019. The Bank
will meet next week to discuss interest rates, and is expected to leave them
unchanged.
Strong consumption.
Growth was driven by a 0.9% quarterly increase in service industries, with
retail and accommodation leading the way with a 2.5% increase. Market indicators
show that business confidence is low, but NZ consumers are increasing spending
in restaurants and hotels. Ten of the 16 industries monitored by Statistics NZ
recorded growth over the quarter.
No per capital recession.
Unlike neighbouring Australia, where per capital GDP has fallen for two
consecutive quarters, creating a so-called "per capita recession", NZ has
avoided this phenomenon. After falling 0.1% in Q3, the figure grew 0.1% in Q4.
Primary industries weaker.
Primary industries comprise 7% of the NZ economy, but the overall sector fell by
0.7% over the quarter. Within this category, the biggest falls were recorded by
forestry industries, down 1.7%, and agriculture down 1.3%.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MANDS$,MAUDR$,MAUDS$,M$A$$$,M$N$$$,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.