MNI DATA IMPACT: US March Durable Orders Above-Expected +2.7%>

--March Durable Goods Orders Ex. Transportation Rise 0.4%

--Initial Jobless Claims Rise 37,000 to 230,000 In April 20 Week 

By Kevin Kastner, Shikha Dave, and Harrison Clarke

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - March durable goods orders data were well above 

expectations for an aircraft-led gain, with the headline number rising 

by 2.7%, compared with a 0.8% gain expected by a Bloomberg median and a 

0.6% gain in an MNI survey. This follows an upward revision to the 

previous month's orders and may lead to upward adjustments to forecasts 

for first quarter non-residential fixed investment. 

     Released at the same time, the level of initial claims rose by 

37,000 to 230,000 in the April 20 week following five straight declines 

to a 50-year low. The timing of spring break causes issues with seasonal 

adjustment, which could explain the out of trend levels in recent weeks 

     Here are some of the key takeaways from the data released Thursday: 

     - The durable goods orders gain was mostly due to a 7.0% increase 

in transportation orders, particularly a 31.2% rebound in nondefense 

aircraft orders. Boeing orders were up in March despite concerns about 

the MAX series, so a rebound in aircraft orders was expected. 

     - Excluding transportation, new orders rose 0.4% in the month, 

above the 0.2% gain expected in a Bloomberg survey, but as expected in 

an MNI survey. There were gains in communications equipment and 

machinery, and declines in primary metals and fabricated metal products. 

The 9.0% gain for communications equipment was the strongest since 

January 2015, when it posted a 13.4% increase. 

     - Nondefense capital goods new orders were up 6.5% in March, and 

were up by only 1.3% excluding aircraft. Nondefense capital goods 

shipments were flat in the month, while shipments ex. aircraft were down 

0.2%. Analysts are likely to raise their forecasts for nonresidential 

fixed investment ahead of Friday's advance Q1 GDP report. 

     - The four-week moving average for claims rose by 4,500 to 206,000 

in the April 20 week following four straight declines. 

     - Continuing claims rose by 1,000 to 1.655 million in the April 13 

employment survey week, down 100,000 from the March survey week. Both 

the initial and continuing claims data were strongly positive indicators 

for April payrolls in the survey week.     

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

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