MNI DATA IMPACT: US March Retail Sales Above-Expected +1.6%>

--Initial Claims Below-Expected -5k to 192k; Low Since Sep 6, 1969 Wk

--Retail Sales Ex. Motor Vehicle +1.2%; Ex. Mtr Veh and Gas +0.9%

--Overall February Sales Unrevised, January Sales Revised Upwards

By Shikha Dave, and Harrison Clarke

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The value of retail sales posted a large gain in 

March, rising 1.6% vs the 1.0% gain expected by the Bloomberg consensus 

and an MNI survey, following no revision to sales growth in February 

that leaves first quarter consumption above the fourth quarter average, 

data released Thursday by the Commerce Department showed. 

     Also released on Thursday, the level of initial jobless claims fell 

by 5,000 to 192,000 in the April 13 survey week, below the 205,000 level 

expected by the Bloomberg and the 206k level expected by MNI. 

     Here are some of the key takeaways from the data released Thursday: 

     - Sales excluding motor vehicle sales were above expectations, 

rising 1.2% compared with a Bloomberg consensus of 0.7% and an MNI 

median of 0.8%. The greater-than-expected readings were due to a 3.1% 

gain in motor vehicle sales and a 3.5% gain in gasoline station 

sales. Excluding those two factors, retail sales were still up 0.9%.

     - Initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 192,000 in the April 13 

employment survey week, the lowest level since September 6, 1969, when 

it was 182,000. The current claims level is down 24,000 from the March 

16 employment survey week, which had an initial claims level of 216,000. 

     - March control group sales rose 1.0%, when a 0.3% gain in building 

materials and a 0.8% in food services were excluded as well as the motor 

vehicle and gasoline categories, suggesting underlying strength. 

     - February sales were unrevised to from the previously reported 

0.2% decrease, while sales excluding motor vehicles were revised up to a 

0.2% decline from the 0.4% decline reported last month. Control group 

sales were revised down to a 0.3% decline from the 0.2% fall previously 

reported.

     - Q1 retail sales were up 0.2% vs the Q4 average at an annual rate. 

Ex. mtr veh, retail sales were up 0.8% vs the Q4 average, and were up 

2.6% ex. autos, bldg materials, gas, and food services, suggesting a 

rebound in PCE growth after a weak February. 

     - The four-week moving average for claims fell by 6,000 to 201,250 

in the April 13 week, and could fall in the following week. Continuing 

claims fell by 63,000 to 1.653 million in the April 6 week. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]