MNI DATA PREVIEW: 5.5M More US Weekly Jobless Claims Seen

By Brooke Migdon

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The U.S. will likely report another 5.5 million weekly

jobless claims Thursday as coronavirus shutdowns and state and federal social

distancing guidelines remain in place.

     Initial claims predicted through April 11 in the Bloomberg forecast would

follow the stronger-than-expected 6.6 million the Labor Department reported last

week, a surge with no precedent.

     The Labor Department said the virus' labor market impact is widening, and

industries resilient to downturns like professional, technical, and information

services are suffering. Food and accommodation continue to lead weekly gains in

unemployment insurance as most states prohibit dine-in services.

     While the coronavirus continues to weigh heavily on initial claims, it's

also beginning to influence continuing claims. Those are unemployed workers who

have received at least one week of unemployment benefits, the Labor Department

said last week.

     Continuing claims surged last week to 7.5 million, more than doubling the

previous week's 3.1 million.

     --STATE BACKLOGS

     States are working through backlogs that inflate jobless claims and many

are struggling to pay out benefits to unemployed workers, according to local

media reports.

     California, which reported the largest weekly increase in initial claims

last week, extended hotline hours to meet surging demand. Nevada, reporting the

largest decline in initial claims in the Labor Department's April 9 report, last

week took its unemployment insurance website offline after increased traffic

caused it to crash.

     Analysts say claims could start leveling off this week after one month of

business and factory shutdowns. Researchers at Morgan Stanley, expecting 4.9

million jobless claims were filed through April 11, wrote Wednesday that initial

claims have likely "moved past the peak," though will still remain in the

millions. 

     Others are less optimistic. Initial claims should stay close to last week's

record high, analysts at Bank of America wrote, forecasting another 6.5 million.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: brooke.migdon@marketnews.com

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