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Free AccessMNI: DATA PREVIEW: BOJ Tankan To Show Business Sentiment Slip
TOKYO (MNI) - The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey for December will
likely show a slight dip in sentiment across many business sectors from three
months ago, hit by the uncertainties over the global economy, economists
forecast.
Looking ahead, companies are expected to remain cautious, as trade friction
casts a shadow over global growth.
The BOJ will release the outcome of its Tankan quarterly business survey
for December conducted from mid-November to Dec. 13 at 0850JST on Friday, Dec.
14 (2350GMT on Dec. 13).
--MAJOR MANUFACTURERS SLIP
The median economist forecast for the diffusion index (DI) for sentiment
among major manufacturers is seen at +18, down from +19 in September, for the
fourth straight quarterly decline. The forecasts from eight economists ranged
from +13 to +21.
Economists said that companies are hit by uncertainties over global demand
caused by the U.S.-China trade friction and the slowing Chinese economy.
Meanwhile, firms are benefiting from the improvement of the term of trade
caused by the drop in crude oil prices.
The diffusion index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of
companies reporting deteriorating business conditions from those reporting an
improvement. A positive figure indicates the majority of firms see better
business conditions.
The median forecast for the DI for major non-manufacturers is +22 in
December, I changed from +22 in September. The forecasts ranged from +20 to +23.
The sentiment index for small manufacturers is projected to be +13 in December,
down from +14 in the previous survey. The sentiment for small non-manufacturers
is also forecast to slip to +9 from +10.
The economy is returning to a moderate recovery path in the fourth quarter
after a temporary dip caused by a string of natural disasters.
BOJ officials are closely watching how capital investment plans have
evolved amid the uncertainties over global demand to gauge the virtuous cycle
from profits to spending.
--SOLID CAPEX PLANS
Economists expect plans for business investment to remain solid on the back
of high corporate profits and the continued labor shortage.
The median economist forecast for fiscal 2018 capital investment plans
among major firms is +12.4% on year, down from +13.4% in September. Capital
investment plans by major firms tend to be slightly revised down in December
from September.
The forecast for capex plans among smaller firms is -3.7%, up from -8.4% in
September. Capex plans by small businesses at the beginning of fiscal year is
low and they are usually revised up gradually toward the end of fiscal year.
--INFLATION FORECASTS EYED
BOJ official are focused on corporate inflation forecasts, which are part
of the December Tankan survey but will be released on Dec. 17.
Inflation expectations have stopped falling but they have not shown clear
signs of a pickup in the face of weak consumer prices.
In the September survey, companies on average saw a slightly slower pace of
increase in consumer prices for one year ahead, compared to the previous survey,
while leaving their inflation forecasts for three and five years ahead
unchanged.
Firms on average expect the annual consumer inflation rate at 0.8% a year
from now, down from 0.9% in June. But companies expect a 1.1% rise for both
three and five years ahead, unchanged from June.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: flora.guo@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MAJDS$,MMJBJ$,M$A$$$,M$J$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.