MNI DATA PREVIEW: China Jan Trade Seen Down On Holiday, Virus

     China's exports and imports are both expected to fall in January, as the

New Year celebrations cut working days in the month and the coronavirus outbreak

slowed spending over the holiday period.

     The latest PMI reading from China, published this week, stood at 50.0, down

from previous 50.2, at the end of December, highlighting a modest production

contraction over the Lunar New Year holiday. 

     Looking into the sub-indicators, the new export orders index, a leading

indicator for export growth, fell to 48.7 from a previous 50.3. Import slowed to

49.0 in January, compared with 49.9 in December. 

     Interrupted by the Spring Festival holiday, there were 17 working days in

January, less than an average 21 days per month. Additionally, a relatively

higher base effect from January 2019 will inhibit both exports and imports

growth -- exports rose 9.0% y/y and imports fell 1.5% y/y in Jan 2019. 

     The outbreak of the coronavirus in Wuhan, central China, has quarantined

people at home, as well as blocking foreign trade. The WHO announced the

coronavirus pneumonia in China as a Public Health Emergency of International

Concern (PHEIC) on Jan 31, but before then both the exports and imports have

been turned down.  

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: flora.guo@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$A$$$,M$Q$$$]