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Free AccessMNI DATA PREVIEW: Claims Seen Up 2.5M to 10% of US Population
By Brooke Migdon
WASHINGTON (MNI) - U.S. weekly job claims are seen slowing to 2.5 million
in figures due Thursday, still enough to push the total since the Covid-19
pandemic to 10% of the population.
The figure in the Bloomberg forecast would fall short of last week's 3.1
million. Initial claims have declined an average of 14% per week since peaking
at 6.8 million in late March, indicating job cuts are slowing as many states
enter the early stages of reopening.
The expected gain would still bring the total number of jobless claims
stemming from coronavirus shutdowns to 36 million -- more than 10% of the U.S.
population. Before this year, the record for weekly claims was the 695,000 level
reached in 1982.
The Labor Department said last week its reports now include Pandemic
Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims,
programs established under the CARES Act signed by President Donald Trump in
March.
Covid-19 also continues to push up continuing claims, the Labor Department
said last week. Goldman Sachs expects continuing claims to rise to 24.8 million
Thursday after jumping to 22.6 million last week.
--STILL STRUGGLING
Nearly every state began reopening earlier this month, which may ease new
jobless claims tied to the coronavirus in coming weeks. Many governments are
also still reporting backlogs in processing applications.
Even as some Americans return to work, initial claims will remain at
historic levels for several more weeks, analysts say, and employment won't
return to pre-pandemic levels soon.
"The labor market continues to struggle amid the Covid-19 pandemic and
filings for unemployment benefits are likely to remain at elevated levels even
as some states begin to gradually reopen their economies and ease back some
social distancing measures," analysts at Bank of America, expecting 2.8 million
on Thursday, wrote in a research note.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: brooke.migdon@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MAUPR$,M$U$$$,MT$$$$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.