MNI DATA PREVIEW: Claims Seen Up 2.5M to 10% of US Population

By Brooke Migdon

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - U.S. weekly job claims are seen slowing to 2.5 million

in figures due Thursday, still enough to push the total since the Covid-19

pandemic to 10% of the population. 

     The figure in the Bloomberg forecast would fall short of last week's 3.1

million. Initial claims have declined an average of 14% per week since peaking

at 6.8 million in late March, indicating job cuts are slowing as many states

enter the early stages of reopening.

     The expected gain would still bring the total number of jobless claims

stemming from coronavirus shutdowns to 36 million -- more than 10% of the U.S.

population. Before this year, the record for weekly claims was the 695,000 level

reached in 1982.

     The Labor Department said last week its reports now include Pandemic

Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims,

programs established under the CARES Act signed by President Donald Trump in

March.

     Covid-19 also continues to push up continuing claims, the Labor Department

said last week. Goldman Sachs expects continuing claims to rise to 24.8 million

Thursday after jumping to 22.6 million last week.

     --STILL STRUGGLING

     Nearly every state began reopening earlier this month, which may ease new

jobless claims tied to the coronavirus in coming weeks. Many governments are

also still reporting backlogs in processing applications.

     Even as some Americans return to work, initial claims will remain at

historic levels for several more weeks, analysts say, and employment won't

return to pre-pandemic levels soon.

     "The labor market continues to struggle amid the Covid-19 pandemic and

filings for unemployment benefits are likely to remain at elevated levels even

as some states begin to gradually reopen their economies and ease back some

social distancing measures," analysts at Bank of America, expecting 2.8 million

on Thursday, wrote in a research note.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: brooke.migdon@marketnews.com

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