MNI DATA PREVIEW: EZ Sales Seen Sharply Lower Amid Lockdown

--Covid-19 Restrictions On Consumers To Hit Sales Bar Food, Pharmacies

     LONDON (MNI) - Retail Sales across the Eurozone are expected to have

plunged in March, with market analysts pencilling a decline of 11.5% m/m as the

Covid-19 related containment measures impacted consumer activity. March's

expected decrease would more than offset the January (+0.7%) and February

(+0.9%) monthly gains.

     State-level data projects a gloomy outlook, with German sales slumping

-5.6% in March as a result of temporary business closures. While sales declined

in most sectors, supermarkets and pharmacies saw monthly gains. 

     Similar developments were observed in France, where sales collapsed by 24%

in March compared to February. March's fall was driven by a severe drop in

industrial goods sales, down by 43.4% m/m, while food sales only cooled by 0.9%

on a monthly basis. Spanish retail sales declined by 15.3% in March with

non-food products slipping by 29.6%.

     The bloc's largest four economies went into lockdown in March with Italy

starting at March 9, followed by Spain on March 14, France on March 16 and

finally Germany at March 22. Containment measures resulted in the temporary

closure of non-essential businesses and shops remained closed throughout most of

April, suggesting another disappointing set of sales data next month.

     --OUTLOOK

     According to survey evidence, expectations for the next 12 months are

bleak. March's composite PMI recorded the lowest level on record, while the

German Ifo expectations index for the service sector also recorded a sharp

decline. High uncertainty regarding the length of the containment measures saw

businesses remain pessimistic.

     However, several European countries started to open up their economies at

the end of April and beginning of May, FIGURES May figures should see some

improvement, although the recovery is likely to be gradual.

--MNI London Bureau; +44 0203 865 3814; email: irene.prihoda@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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