MNI DATA PREVIEW: Japan Q3 GDP Seen Rising Annualized 18.6%

Japan''s GDP rebounded sharply in Q3 as private consumption and net exports rise as economies reopened at home and abroad, economists tell MNI, with expectations for preliminary to see a 4.4% rise on quarter, or an annualized 18.6% -- the first growth in four quarters and exceeding the current record riise of 12.0% in Q4 1989.

Forecasts ranged from +3.8% to +5.8% q/q, or +16.1% to +25.4% at an annualized pace. The economy contracted 7.9% q/q, or an annualized -28.1% in Q2.

The Cabinet Office will release data at 0850 JST Nov 16 (2350 GMT Nov 15).

HIGHER PRIVATE CONSUMPTION

Economists see a Q3 boost from higher private consumption triggered by pent-up demand and government cash payments. Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of GDP, is expected to have risen 4.9% q/q. Forecasts ranged from +3.1% to +6.2%.

Net exports also helped the data, recovering in the wake of a revival in economic activity overseas.

Net exports of goods and services -- exports minus imports -- are expected to have made a positive 2.7 percentage point contribution to the total domestic
output, after falling 3.0 percentage point contribution in the second quarter.

CAPEX REMAINS WEAK

Capital investment is expected to have fallen 3.2% iq/q in Q3 as businesses remained cautious about implementing capex amid ongoing uncertainties over demand. Forecasts ranged from -2.0% to -6.1%. It will be the second straight drop for capex following a 4.7% fall in Q2.

Private economists expect Japan's economy in the fourth quarter to rise from the previous quarter but the pace to slow.

The average economist forecast for Q4 GDP growth is annualized at 4.75%, according to the latest monthly ESP Survey of 35 economists by the Japan Center
for Economic Research conducted from Sept 25 to Oct 2.