MNI DATA PREVIEW: Japan Q4 GDP Seen Little Changed On Revision

Japan's economy is expected to grow at the pace initially estimated in Q4 2020, as business investment and private consumption appearing to be little changed. Economists see revised data higher by 3.1% on quarter, or an annualized 13.1%, modestly higher that the flash estimate of a 3.0% q/q gain, or an annualized +12.7%.

The Cabinet Office will release the revised GDP data for the October-December period at 0850JST, Mar 9.

Capital investment is seen unrevised at +4.5% on quarter, with forecasts ranging from 4.2% to 5.0%, based on the Ministry of Finance's recent survey. Combined capital investment by non-financial Japanese companies (excluding soft-ware) fell 1.4% q/q inQ4, widening from -0.8% in Q3, the MOF survey showed.

The MOF survey is key to calculating Q4 GDP revisions.

Capex according to the preliminary GDP data rose 4.5% q/q and pushed total domestic output up by 0.7 percentage point.

Economists see private consumption, accounting for about 60% of GDP, unchanged at +2.2% q/q. In the preliminary data released last month, it pushed up the Q4 GDP by 1.2 percentage point. The contribution of private-sector inventories to the total domestic output is forecast to be revised to -0.3 percent point from -0.4 percentage point.

Net exports of goods and services -- exports minus imports -- are expected to have made a positive 1.0 percentage point contribution to the total domestic output, unchanged from the preliminary estimate.

Public investment is expected to be revised to +1.7% q/q in Q4 from +1.3%.

LOOKING AHEAD

The average economist forecast for Q1 GDP growth is annualized at -5.47%, according to the latest monthly ESP Survey of 36 economists by the Japan Center for Economic Research conducted from January 29 to February 5.