MNI DATA PREVIEW: Japan Q4 GDP Seen Rising Annualized 8.9%

Japan's economy likely grew for the second straight quarter in the October-December period as private consumption and capital investment improved with the resumption of economic activity at home and abroad, economists forecast.

The median forecast is for preliminary Q4 GDP to rise 2.2% on quarter, or at an annualised 8.9%. Forecasts ranged from +1.4% to +2.9% q/q, or +5.6% to +12.3% at an annualized pace. The economy grew 5.3% on quarter or an annualized 22.9% in the third quarter.

The Cabinet Office will release preliminary GDP data for the October-December quarter at 0850 JST on Monday, Feb. 15 (2350 GMT on Sunday, Feb. 14).

NET EXPORTS

Capex is expected to have risen 3.1% q/q for the first rise in two quarters. Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of GDP, is estimated to have gained 1.5% q/q for the second straight rise, helped by pent-up demand. Forecasts ranged from +0.4% to +2.3%.

Net exports of goods and services - exports minus imports - likely made a positive 1.0 percentage point contribution to total domestic output with the recovery in global demand. The category contributed 2.7 percentage points in the third quarter.

Japan's economy is seen contracting in the first quarter of 2021 as economic activities were hit by the second emergency aimed at checking the resurgent virus. The average forecast is for Q1 GDP to fall an annualized 0.99%, according to the latest monthly ESP Survey of 36 economists by the Japan Center for Economic Research conducted from Dec. 25 to Jan. 7.