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     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Industrial production is expected to rise by 0.2% in the
July report to be released on Thursday, with manufacturing production likely to
soften. Mining production is also expected to post a modest decline, partly on
the modest impact of Hurricane Barry. Providing some offset, utilities
production is expected to rise sharply on record-breaking temperatures in the
month. The Bloomberg consensus looks for a smaller 0.1% gain.
     Here are some key points to keep in mind:
     - Analysts misses in the MNI survey in July have been slightly tilted
toward underestimates in the last 10 years, but more recently there have been
overestimates in each of the last two years. So the slight tendency to
underestimate is not a guarantee of a surprise gain.
     - The manufacturing data for July recorded a 0.6% dip in aggregate hours,
reflecting a sharp deterioration in hours worked. Factory payrolls did rise to
16,000 in July from 12,000 in June, but that was not enough to offset the
shorter workweek.. Additionally, there was a large decline in the ISM
Manufacturing production index.
     - With multiple outlets reporting record-high temperatures in a number of
regions in July, utilities are likely to add substantially to production on
increased air conditioning usage. This follows a sharp decline in the
milder-than-usual June.
     - After last month's gulf storm Hurricane Barry, some analysts predicted
smaller mining output due to inclement weather. However, the number of rigs
online only declined by seven, suggesting that most were back online quickly.
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email:
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email:
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: