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Free AccessMNI DATA PREVIEW: UK February Retail Sales Seen Lackluster
By Shaily Mittal
LONDON (MNI) - UK retail sales are expected to slow in February after a
positive January, as ongoing uncertainty over Brexit dampened shopping spirits
-- although warmer than usual weather in the month could somewhat ease the
slowdown.
Table 1: UK Retail Sales - February
Sales Inc Fuel % Sales Inc Fuel % Sales Ex Fuel % Sales Ex Fuel %
m/m y/y m/m y/y
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Prior-Jan 1.0 4.2 1.2 4.1
MNI Cons -0.3 3.3 -0.4 3.4
Bbg Cons -0.4 3.3 -0.4 3.5
Mostly Positive Surprises in February: Since 2010, there have been seven
upside surprises and two downward surprises in February with no downside
surprises in the last four years. Despite an average positive surprise for
February of 0.456pp, concerns of a negative surprise are understandable, given
recent weak survey evidence.
Price Cuts and Discounts Aiding Sales: Since 2018, the implied price
deflator has been trending lower. In January, the deflator was up just 0.4% y/y
- it's lowest reading since November 2016. The Textile and Footwear sector has
seen the most aggressive price cuts, with the deflator turning increasingly
negative over the last five months. Food stores is the only sector showing a
certain degree of resilience to price changes amid upwardly trending sales,
suggesting that consumers are more price conscious in their discretionary
spending but pushing ahead with necessity spending.
BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Moderate in February: The BRC-KPMG survey showed
total sales eased to 0.5% in February from 2.2% in January, coming in below the
respective three-month and 12-month averages.
The non-food sector was hit harder with consumers less enthusiastic in
recent months, reflecting the official data. Online sales, in contrast,
maintained their upward trend.
VISA Spending Still Subdued: Overall VISA spending fell 1.8% y/y in
February for a fifth consecutive decline and the largest since April last year.
Transport and Communication was the worst performing sector, closely followed by
Clothing and Footwear. (Please note that the VISA data is not seasonally
adjusted).
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2224; email: shaily.mittal@mni-indicators.com
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.