MNI DATA PREVIEW: UK Gfk Sentiment, GDP and Curr Acc Survey

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 11:21 GMT Mar 27/07:21 EST Mar 27

By Jai Lakhani

     LONDON (MNI) - Albeit releases are coming late in the week, important data

is due in the UK, beginning early Thursday with the Gfk Consumer Sentiment

Index.

     Despite the positive data last week with lower inflation and real wages

rising to a non-negative figure, it appears that the UK consumers as a whole are

still pessimistic about both their own financial conditions and the wider

economy as a whole. A prior figure of -10 is expected by analysts to improve

slightly to -9, but still very much so in negative territory. 

-----------------------------

                          Mar

                          GfK

                     Consumer

                    Sentiment

Date Out               29-Mar

Median                  -9.00

Actual

Forecast High            -8.0

Forecast Low            -11.0

Standard Deviation        1.5

Count                       5

Prior                   -10.0

Capital Economics        -8.0

JP Morgan                -9.0

Oxford Economics        -11.0

Standard Chartered       -8.0

Societe Generale        -11.0

     Analyst do not appear to have any disagreement when it comes to the third

estimate of Q4 UK GDP. All analysts have pencilled in a q/q% growth rate of 0.4%

and a y/y% growth rate of 1.4%. Both predictions represent a drop in the first

estimate of 0.5% q/q and 1.5% y/y. 

----------------------------------------

                      2017 Q4    2017 Q4

                    Final GDP  Final GDP

                     Estimate   Estimate

                         rate       rate

                        % Q/Q      % Y/Y

Date Out               29-Mar     29-Mar

Median                   0.40        1.4

Actual

Forecast High             0.4        1.4

Forecast Low              0.4        1.4

Standard Deviation        0.0        0.0

Count                      12          8

Prior                     0.5        1.8

Bayern                    0.4        N/A

Berenberg                 0.4        N/A

Capital Economics         0.4        1.4

Commerzbank               0.4        N/A

Investec                  0.4        1.4

JP Morgan                 0.4        1.4

Natixis                   0.4        1.4

Nomura                    0.4        1.4

Oxford Economics          0.4        1.4

Standard Chartered        0.4        1.4

Societe Generale          0.4        1.4

UniCredit                 0.4        N/A

     The 2017 Q4 Current Account has provided some disagreement amongst

analysts. However, collectively it is apparent that a further increase in the

deficit from stg22.8 billion is expected with the median of the analyst

estimates projecting a deficit of stg24.4 billion. 

---------------------------

                    2017 Q4

                    Current

                    Account

                     stg bn

Date Out             29-Mar

Median               -24.40

Actual

Forecast High         -23.6

Forecast Low          -25.0

Standard Deviation      0.7

Count                     4

Prior                 -22.8

Capital Economics     -24.8

Investec              -23.6

Nomura                -24.0

Societe Generale      -25.0

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com