MNI data team highlight that today's.....>

UK PREVIEW: MNI data team highlight that today's retail sales release is

unlikely to rebound in any material way: "Total sales volumes are only expected

to rise modestly in February (MNI median: 0.5% m/m) following a pretty dismal

festive period. The sales volume index in the February CBI moderated for the

third month in a row to +8, the lowest result since May, while the month's BRC

survey continued to report household finances restraining spending appetites.

Volumes barely rebounded in January, up 0.1% m/m, after sinking 1.4% m/m in

December."

They do, however, point out that February releases do tend to deliver upside

surprises: "There is a tendency for the February m/m total sales volumes data to

come in better than expected. In six of the past eight occasions the actual

February result has overshot the Bloomberg consensus, including the last three

(2015, 2016 and 2017)."