MNI: EC Autumn Forecasts Point To Still Subdued Recovery
MNI (LONDON) - The European Commission sees a subdued recovery for the euro area according to projections in its autumn forecasts published Friday, with growth now seen modestly lower than previously expected in both 2024 and 2025, before picking up pace somewhat in 2026.
Growth for the Euro Area is estimated at 0.8% this year, rising to 1.3% in 2025 (in line with ECB's September projection and 0.1pp lower than the EU's Spring projection) and 1.6% in 2026. The Commission said lower interest rates and rising real disposable incomes would help drive better growth rates into next year and 2026.
Euro Area inflation is forecast to decline from 2.4% this year to 2.1% next year and then 1.9% in 2026. Core inflation is also seen slowing in 2025, but ending the year just above the ECB's current target.
The ECB's latest round of forecasts are due on December 12, alongside the next policy decision, with expectations of lowered growth and inflation forecasts for this year and next when compared to the September round. (see MNI SOURCES: ECB Heads For 25BP Cut; Risks From Trump, Germany )
Of the major economies German growth will turn negative this year at -0.1% recovering to 0.7 in 2025 and 1.3 in 2026. Growth in France is estimated to be 1.1% in 2024, followed by 0.8 and 1.4 in the next two years. Comparable numbers for Italy are 0.7, 1.0 and 1.2 and 3.0, 2.3 and 2.1 in Spain. (see RPT-MNI INTERVIEW: German Economy "Stuck," Top Economist Says)