US NOV FLASH MANUF PMI 48.8 (FCST: 48.9); OCT 48.5

MNI:Largest Canada New Home Price Dip Since `09 Led By Toronto

CANADIAN OCT FLASH RETAIL SALES +0.7%, 4TH STRAIGHT INCREASE

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, November 22

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY345.9 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI BRIEF: Fed Should Explore Central Clearing At SRF-Hammack

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction on Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Gilt Syndi; IT, EU Due Monday

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT FINAL NOV INDEX 71.8

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI ECB Preview-October 2024: First Back-To-Back Cut

Following the weaker-than-expected PMI and inflation data, the ECB is expected to deliver a 25bp cut in October.
Central Bank PreviewBundesbankCentral Bank NewsECB - PreviewCEEMEAEurozoneGermanyCentral Bank ReportsGlobalStoryRegionMarkets

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: October Cut: Reconciling Spot Data with Slower Moving Inflation Dynamics

  • Following the weaker-than-expected PMI and inflation data, the market and many on the Governing Council have rallied behind an October cut, which appears to be the most likely outcome.
  • However, communicating the motivation for such a move will not be straight forward.
  • An October cut would not violate the meeting-by-meeting or data dependent approach, but is somewhat at odds with the repeated assertion that the ECB is not “data point dependent.”
  • Back-to-back cuts underpinned by just a discrete number of new data points also undermines the importance attributed to the productivity-wage-profit channel, which the ECB has argued is a key determinant of the inflation outlook but which has not materially changed since September.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: ECB Preview October 2024.pdf

133 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: October Cut: Reconciling Spot Data with Slower Moving Inflation Dynamics

  • Following the weaker-than-expected PMI and inflation data, the market and many on the Governing Council have rallied behind an October cut, which appears to be the most likely outcome.
  • However, communicating the motivation for such a move will not be straight forward.
  • An October cut would not violate the meeting-by-meeting or data dependent approach, but is somewhat at odds with the repeated assertion that the ECB is not “data point dependent.”
  • Back-to-back cuts underpinned by just a discrete number of new data points also undermines the importance attributed to the productivity-wage-profit channel, which the ECB has argued is a key determinant of the inflation outlook but which has not materially changed since September.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: ECB Preview October 2024.pdf