MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, October 14

MNI BRIEF: China Sep M2 Rises To Four-Month High

MNI BRIEF: China Foreign Trade Grow Steady; Exports +4.3% YTD

MNI BRIEF: China Foreign Trade Facing Pressure In Q4

CHINA YTD NEW LOANS CNY16.0 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY16.3 TRLN: PBOC

CHINA SEP EXPORTS +2.4% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +6.0% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Luxembourg Synd; UK, FI Due Tuesday

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.2% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI BRIEF: China Sep CPI Slows To 0.4% Y/Y On Base Effects

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

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MNI ECB Preview-October 2024: First Back-To-Back Cut

Following the weaker-than-expected PMI and inflation data, the ECB is expected to deliver a 25bp cut in October.
Central Bank PreviewBundesbankCentral Bank NewsECB - PreviewCEEMEAEurozoneGermanyCentral Bank ReportsGlobalStoryRegionMarkets

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: October Cut: Reconciling Spot Data with Slower Moving Inflation Dynamics

  • Following the weaker-than-expected PMI and inflation data, the market and many on the Governing Council have rallied behind an October cut, which appears to be the most likely outcome.
  • However, communicating the motivation for such a move will not be straight forward.
  • An October cut would not violate the meeting-by-meeting or data dependent approach, but is somewhat at odds with the repeated assertion that the ECB is not “data point dependent.”
  • Back-to-back cuts underpinned by just a discrete number of new data points also undermines the importance attributed to the productivity-wage-profit channel, which the ECB has argued is a key determinant of the inflation outlook but which has not materially changed since September.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: ECB Preview October 2024.pdf

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: October Cut: Reconciling Spot Data with Slower Moving Inflation Dynamics

  • Following the weaker-than-expected PMI and inflation data, the market and many on the Governing Council have rallied behind an October cut, which appears to be the most likely outcome.
  • However, communicating the motivation for such a move will not be straight forward.
  • An October cut would not violate the meeting-by-meeting or data dependent approach, but is somewhat at odds with the repeated assertion that the ECB is not “data point dependent.”
  • Back-to-back cuts underpinned by just a discrete number of new data points also undermines the importance attributed to the productivity-wage-profit channel, which the ECB has argued is a key determinant of the inflation outlook but which has not materially changed since September.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: ECB Preview October 2024.pdf