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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 12 August, 2024

  • Germany and France both look to hold conventional auctions in the upcoming week.
  • We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E18.0bln, up from E7.8bln this week.
  • The week ahead sees two large redemptions totalling E36.7bln from a formerly 10-year Bund and E14.2bln of a formerly 20-year BTP.
  • Coupon payments for the week total E4.6bln, of which E3.9bln are German and E0.7bln are Italian.
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E23.3bln, versus positive E7.6bln this week.

For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here:

EZ240812.pdf


Supply Next Week

  • On Tuesday, Germany will sell E5bln of the 2.70% Sep-26 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22064).
  • On Wednesday, France will hold an MT OAT auction with E7.5-9.0bln on offer. We had expected a smaller auction size than last month’s E11.5bln given it is August and had flagged downside risks to our original upper limit estimate of E10.5bln. On offer will be the 0% Feb-27 OAT (ISIN: FR0014003513), the 2.75% Feb-29 OAT (ISIN: FR001400HI98), the on-the-run 2.75% Feb-30 OAT (ISIN: FR001400PM68), and the 0% Nov-31 OAT (ISIN: FR0014002WK3).
  • Also on Wednesday, Germany will return to the market to hold a 30-year Bund auction. On offer will be E1bln of the 2.50% Aug-54 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2D004) alongside E1bln of the 0% Aug-50 Bund (ISIN:DE0001102481).
  • Finally on Wednesday, France will hold an IL OAT auction with E1.25-2.00bln on offer of the following: the 0.10% Mar-29 OATei (ISIN: FR0013410552), the 0.10% Mar-36 OATi (ISIN: FR0013524014), the 0.10% Jul-36 OATei (ISIN: FR0013327491), and the 0.10% Jul-53 OATei (ISIN: FR0014008181).
  • Note, the French auctions are being held on Wednesday August 14 (rather than the usual Thursday) due to the Assumption Day holiday on Thursday August 15.
  • Cancelled auction: Note that Italy’s 3/7/15+ year BTP auction that had been scheduled for Tuesday 13 August will not be held.
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