November 15, 2024 14:42 GMT
MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 18 Nov
The EU will hold a syndication, whilst Slovakia, Belgium, Finland, Greece, Germany, Spain and France will hold auctions.
MNI (LONDON)
- The EU will hold a syndication, whilst Slovakia, Belgium, Finland, Greece, Germany, Spain and France will hold auctions in the week ahead.
- We pencil in gross issuance for the week at E31.7bln, up from E23.1bln this week.
- For a number of countries this will be the last significant week of issuance in 2024.
- The week ahead sees no redemptions. Coupon payments for the week total E0.4bln, of which E0.3bln are Italian.
- This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E31.3bln versus negative E1.2bln this week.
For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here: EZ241118.pdf
Supply Next Week
- The EU will hold a syndication in the week ahead. We don’t have a strong view surrounding what will be on offer, but we note that if this auction is a large enough size it is likely to be the last of the year, with the syndication pencilled in for the W/C 9 December only a reserve operation.
- On Monday, Slovakia will hold a SlovGB auction, selling the long 3-year 3.00% Feb-28 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024683), the 3.625% Jun-33 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000023230), the on-the-run 10-year 3.75% Mar-34 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024865) and the 0.375% Apr-36 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000018958).
- Also on Monday, 18 November, Belgium will hold a conventional auction with on-the-run 10/20-year OLOs on offer for a combined E1.6-2.0bln (a smaller auction than we had expected). On offer will be the 2.85% Oct-34 OLO (ISIN: BE0000360694) alongside the 3.45% Jun-43 OLO (ISIN: BE0000359688)
- On Tuesday, Finland will hold its last conventional auction of the year with up to E1.0bln on offer of the short 5-year 2.875% Apr-29 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000557525) and the on-the-run 10-year 3.00% Sep-34 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000571104).
- On Wednesday, Greece will hold a GGB auction. We pencil in a reopening of the 10-year on-the-run 3.375% Jun-34 GGB (ISIN: GR0124040743) for E200-250mln. Both the GGB on offer and the size will be announced the preceding day.
- Also on Wednesday, Germany will hold a 30-year bund auction. On offer will be E1bln of the 0% Aug-52 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102572) alongside a further E1bln of the 1.80% Aug-53 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102614).
- On Thursday, Spain will hold a Obli/Green Obli auction. On offer will be the 3.10% Jul-31 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012N43), the 4.20% Jan-37 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012932) and the 1.00% Jul-42 Green Obli (ISIN: ES0000012J07). The auction size will be confirmed on Monday.
- Also, on Thursday, France will hold its final MT OAT auction of the year with a slightly smaller size of E9-11bln. On offer will be on-the-run 2.50% Sep-27 OAT (ISIN: FR001400NBC6), the 0.75% Nov-28 OAT (ISIN: FR0013341682), the on-the-run 2.75% Feb-30 OAT (ISIN: FR001400PM68) and the 0% Nov-30 OAT (ISIN: FR0013516549).
- To conclude the week on Thursday, France will return to the market to hold an IL OATs auction for E1.50-2.25bln. On offer will be the 3.15% Jul-32 OATei (ISIN: FR0000188799), the 0.60% Jul-34 OATei (ISIN: FR001400JI88), the 1.80% Jul-40 OATei (ISIN: FR0010447367) and the 0.10% Mar-36 OATi (ISIN: FR0013524014).
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