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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Mar 8

MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Feb 15

The ESM and EU (through its SURE programme) have both issued RFPs regarding issuance next week, so we expect syndications from both. The Netherlands, Germany, Portugal, Ireland and Italy are all due to hold auctions. Assuming the EU SURE syndication is a dual tranche, we look for issuance in the region of E32.5bln next week, a little higher than the E30.9bln issued this week.

  • We expect the ESM to hold its syndication on Monday. Its funding needs are E2bln for the quarter and we expect the syndication to be set at E2bln as a result.
  • For the EU SURE programme, normally a mandate is announced on Monday with the transaction taking place on Tuesday. We note that in its last investor update, the EU stated that it aimed to raise up to another E20bln this quarter, so we could well see a dual tranche transaction next week and then a further single tranche transaction towards the end of the month.
  • On Tuesday, the Netherlands looks to sell E1.5-2.5bln of the 0% Jan-27 DSL. On Tuesday, Austria will kick off EGB supply for the week with E1.38bln of 3/10-year RAGBs on offer: the 0% Jul-24 RAGB and the 0% Feb-31 RAGB.
  • On Wednesday, Germany looks to re-open the 0% Apr-26 Bobl for E4bln.
  • Also Wednesday, Portugal looks to sell E1.00-1.5bln of 7/10-year OTs. On offer will be the 0.70% Oct-27 OT and the 0.475% Oct-30 OT.
  • On Thursday Ireland will hold a bond auction, with the bond and amount to be confirmed on Monday.
  • Also Thursday Italy will sell M/T and L/T BTPs with details to be announced Monday.

NET FLOWS: There are E14.3bln of redemptions due next week, E13.0bln of which will be Schatz on the Friday (so will settle the following week). Coupon payments are minimal at E0.3bln. With the E32.5bln of estimated nominal gross issuance for the week, we estimate net cash flows of E17.9bln, almost the mirror image of this week's E-16.4bln flows.

For a recap of last week's issuance alongside graphical representations of issuance in the upcoming weeks and detailed tables of coupon and redemption schedules for the year ahead see the full document:

EZ080321.pdf

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